College Football Predictions – Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 6-6
The Golden Hurricane struggled once again and could only manage wins over Central Arkansas and Connecticut before squeaking out a win over SMU (W 27-24) in the season finale. They lost five games by single-digits but just couldn’t do enough on offense to bag a few more wins. We don’t want to be dramatic, but it’s worth noting that HC Philip Montgomery may be on the HOT SEAT given that Tulsa has only booked one winning season during his four-year stint, and they have a fairly gross 5-19 mark over the last two campaigns.
Is there any hope for Tulsa in 2019?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #5
American Athletic Conference – #9
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
Tulsa was brutal on offense last year finishing #10 in the conference in scoring offense (24.1 PPG) and #11 in total offense (378 YPG). Note: it’s REALLY hard to average less than 25 PPG and 400 YPG playing in the AAC. We have good news to report! The QB play OSCILLATED from bad to comical a season ago but the Golden Hurricane will have former Baylor product Zach Smith under center this year and that gives them a BIGGIE SIZE upgrade. Last season’s starter Seth Boomer will provide a somewhat decent back-up plan. The WR group looks promising with three of their top-four WRs from a season ago returning for duty. Time will tell if there is a serious #1 threat on the depth chart. We LOVE the look of the 1-2 combo at RB with the return of Shamari Brooks and Corey Taylor (combined 1,813 yards, 18 rushing TD LY), although as proof that LIFE ISN’T FAIR, the Golden Hurricane have a very inexperienced OL (two returning starters). They allowed 39 (!) sacks a season ago (last AAC) and one has to wonder if the OL may prevent the offense from making significant improvement.
Our AAC INSIDERS project an improvement to 28-30 PPG this year, and it’s hard to expect much more than that given the uncertainty with the offensive line.
DEFENSE
The Golden Hurricane wasted a decent performance from their defense last year. They got virtually no help from the offense and still managed to hold their opponents to under 30 PPG. Their pass defense was excellent and they only allowed 11 TD passes which was the best mark in the conference BY FAR. Eight starters return to the stop unit and they should be able to improve on most defensive metrics. The run defense was a TRAIN WRECK last year (233 YPG, #10 AAC) but the DL looks improved with exceptional size and enough experience for us to have faith <crosses fingers>. The linebacker group looks good and they return star MLB Cooper Edmiston who led the team in tackles (and INT!) LY whilst picking up 1st Team AAC accolades. The secondary should be fine but we seriously doubt they can match last season’s performance level UNLESS they can get more pressure on the quarterback. Tulsa has only tallied 26 sacks COMBINED in the last two seasons. Not good.
We forecast a mild improvement in the PPG and YPG metrics and think they will have their best defense since 2012. It won’t be great, but it’s definitely an average to slightly above-average group.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Not bad. Thomas Bennett is one of the better punters in the conference (39.1 yard net LY) and their return men are solid. They need to break in a new PK but recall that they were a mess in the FG department in 2018. Maybe Grad transfer Danny Donley (Drake) can give them more reliability at the position?
Schedule Analysis
Overall – UH OH. They have a pair of tough out-of-conference games (at Michigan St, Oklahoma St) and draw UCF and Cincinnati from the AAC East.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at San Jose St (September 7)
Tulsa hasn’t won a road game since 2016 (for real, yo) and they travel out west after taking a beating from Michigan St. Up next? An in-state battle with the Cowboys from Oklahoma St.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 +115
Under 4.5 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
That number looks about right. Five wins seems like a reasonable expectation but it won’t be easy to get there.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The University of Tulsa has the smallest undergraduate enrollment of all schools that participate at the FBS level.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Positive
This has the look of a team that will be much improved on the field BUT one that may not have that improvement reflected in their win-loss record. They have a monumental upgrade at QB and we like the defense quite a bit. It’s also worth noting that the AAC West doesn’t appear to be that tough, of course with the exception of Memphis. If they can get through non-conference action with a record of 2-2 (very doable) they might be able to make a run at a bowl game. Of course, it would help if they could figure out how to win on the road.
Tulsa is four games over .500 from an ATS perspective under the watch of HC Philip Montgomery. It seems to us that they might slip a bit under-the-radar this season. Don’t go nuts, just keep them in the back of your mind when crafting your weekly betting cards.
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WEBSITE
http://www.tulsahurricane.com/index.aspx?path=football
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NEWS
https://www.tulsaworld.com/sports/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/202/tulsa-golden-hurricane
http://bleacherreport.com/tulsa-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/tulsa-golden-hurricane
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