College Football Predictions – UAB Blazers 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 11-3
ATS – 10-4
Yes, guy.
The Blazers were one of the FEEL GOOD stories of the college football season as they stormed their way to a Conference USA Championship just two years removed from not having a team on the field. Yup, that happened. HC Bill Clark deserves a ton of credit for getting his team to perform at a high-level under such trying circumstances, and the players get top grades for sticking together and achieving an amazing goal.
MEGALOCKS LASER LOCK FUTURES CLUB members were pleased with our call for the Blazers to come out on top of C-USA at HUGE odds. Can they possibly make it two titles in a row?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
Conference USA – #6
UAB Blazers 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The offense didn’t blow people out of the water last year (406 YPG, #5 C-USA) but they had great balance rushing for 201 YPG and utilizing the THROW GAME for 204 YPG. QB Tyler Johnston was the man at the end of the season leading the Blazers to a title game win and a blowout victory over Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl. Johnston is back for duty and will need to cut down on the INTs this year (11-9 TD to INT LY) and get familiar with a brand new WR group as soon as possible. The Blazers lose their top-four (!) targets and will likely struggle to get into a groove early in the campaign. Thankfully, UAB sports one of the best RBs around in Spencer Brown who is coming off a 1,200-yard season in which he bagged 16 TDs and garnered 1st Team C-USA accolades. The depth in impressive at RB and don’t forget that Johnston provides dangerous mobility at the QB spot. There is a massive reload on the offensive line as they need to break in four (!) new starters, and each of those former big men was an all-conference performer in 2018. It remains to be seen how quickly they can gel but at least the early part of the schedule is favorable (see below).
The Blazers bagged 29.9 PPG last year and we project a small downtick in production in 2019.
DEFENSE
If you followed the Blazers last season you knew what a great defense they brought to the table. They finished the previous campaign ranked #2 in C-USA in total defense (299 YPG) and were #7 in the FBS in scoring defense (17.0 PPG). Oh, and they knew how to get PENETRATION with an amazing 48 sacks (#3 FBS). What about the prospects for the upcoming year?
Their attacking defense takes a hit on the DL as they only bring back one starter and have very little experience to rely upon. The LB corps appears to be the strength of the defense with two solid players returning for duty. Kris Moll was 5th on the team in tackles a season ago and tallied 7.5 TFL and Fitzgerald Mofor 2nd on the team in tackles whilst also bagging 7.5 TFL. The pass defense was strong a season ago (#2 C-USA, 14-9 TD to INT) but only return one starter to the back-end of the stop unit. The good news is that CB Brontae Harris is a solid piece to build around. If the Blazers can find a way to get adequate pressure on the QB the defense should be fine.
The Blazers are sure to make a backwards move from a statistical perspective but will still have one of the better defenses in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game should be strong and that’s always a good thing. Punter Kyle Greenwell is solid and PK Nick Vogel connected on 12/12 FG attempts inside 40 yards whilst acting as a TOUCHBACK MACHINE. New return men will need to be found.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s pretty soft overall. Things start out easy (on paper) with games against Alabama St, Akron, South Alabama, WKU, and Rice. They have a road trip to Tennessee and play their three most important C-USA games in November.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Tennessee (November 2)
The Vols will be improved and the Blazers have been a much better team at home recently, as opposed to playing in Birmingham. UAB’s big conference games are on deck.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -110
Under 7.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Slight LEANAGE to the ‘over’. This team doesn’t look like a beast but the schedule is kind.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
UAB won their first and only conference championship last year AND and notched the program’s first ever bowl game victory.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
We’re excited to see how these guys come back from a historic season. There are some potential holes on the roster but they should be pretty good on both sides of the football. And we know that Bill Clark and company can coach. It will be more difficult being the HUNTED, but that’s part of the fun of being a champion.
The Blazers have an impressive 18-8 ATS mark (69%) over the past two years but will hard pressed to keep that kind of success rolling. Our CONFERENCE USA DEEP INSIDERS have been debating between a slightly negative and neutral overall ATS stance. They have many key elements still intact (running game, QB, defense, special teams, HC) so our call at the moment is to pick your spots when building your weekly betting card.
Want more UAB Football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.uabsports.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
http://csnbbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=388
NEWS
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/5/uab-blazers
http://www.al.com/uabfootball/
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/uab-blazers
TWITTER
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