College Football Predictions – UCF Knights 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 13-0
ATS – 7-4-1
BOOM goes the DYNAMITE.
The Knights moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last year running the table and finishing with an undefeated record of 13-0. Memphis gave them all they could handle in the AAC Championship Game, but the Knights would not be denied. They topped off their amazing run with an impressive win over the Auburn Tigers in the Peach Bowl.
Former HC Scott Frost is off to the land of CORN. What can the Knights do for an encore under new boss Josh Heupel?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #1
AAC – Tied #1
UCF Knights 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Knights were the #1 scoring offense (!) in the FBS last season averaging an amazing 48.2 PPG during their run to undefeated glory. Star QB McKenzie Milton is back to do more damage and he was amazing in 2017 throwing for over 4,000 yards and 37 TDs whilst rushing for another 8 TDs on the ground. Milton was a 4th Team AA and finished #8 in the Heisman voting. You could probably justify a few notches higher but that was quite the season for the UCF QB.
The top-four rushers (including Milton) from last year’s squad are back for duty and it is always exciting to watch the Knights RELEASE THE KILLINS. Adrian Killins has lethal speed and is coming off a season in which he led the team in rushing yards (790, 10 TDs) and caught 25 passes. The offensive line undergoes a bit of a reload as three former starters depart. The offense will also be without #1 WR Tre’Quan Smith (1,171, 19.9, 13 TDs LY) who was a 4th team AA (NFL – Saints) and dangerous TE Jordan Akins (NFL – Bills).
As long as Milton is at the controls we predict fireworks for the UCF offense. They were impossibly good last year and it seems reasonable to expect a Top-10 finish in scoring offense and total offense. It’s not fair to expect almost 50 PPG.
DEFENSE
The defense allowed a lot of yards last season as their offense scored FAST and opposing teams tried desperately to match the Knights’ output. UCF finished #93 in total defense but they only allowed 25.3 PPG (#52 FBS). This year they bring back six starters to the stop unit but have a number of key losses to deal with including 4th Team AA LB Shaquem Griffin (NFL – Seahawks) and #1 NFL DC CB Mike Hughes (Vikings). There is at least one excellent player remaining at every level of the defense. DT Trysten Hill (2nd Team AAC), LB Patrick Jasinski (leading tackler LY), and SS Kyle Gibson (1st Team AAC) form the core of another good-looking defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Knights are set in the kicking game with 2nd Team AAC selections at PK (Matthew Wright 13/18 FG LY, 4/6 40+) and P (Mac Loudermilk (38.7 net). They will definitely miss ace return man Mike Hughes who had 3 TDs on returns in 2017 (2 KO, 1 PR).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – SMOOOOOTH. Sound familiar? Out-of-conference games against Florida Atlantic and Pitt might be tricky but it’s another nice-looking schedule. Added bonus? Only five road games. They will have to stay focused during conference play because there are more than a few teams that could upset the apple cart.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at North Carolina (September 15). This might be a sneaky spot for the Tar Heels to SHOCK the WORLD as they were pretty awful last season and Knights have a big game with the FIGHTING KIFFINS of Florida Atlantic on deck.
Season Win Total
Over 9.5 +100
Under 9.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage as we go to press. Through no fault of their own, the Knights will not be as good this season BUT 9.5 wins feels like a tough number to bet.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
UCF started as a Division III program in 1979.
The Knights were (-20) in turnover margin in 2015 when they went 0-12. They were 13-0 last season and were a very fine (+17) in the turnover department.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the KNIGHTS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
Here we go!
How long can the Knights keep the winning streak going? New HC Josh Heupel has a lot of talent to work with on offense and knows a thing or two about how to run a high-octane machine. It’s not going to hurt having a Heisman-Caliber QB at the controls and UCF is still going to be HOT STUFF when they have the ball. We worry about significant missing pieces on defense and the inevitable fact that they will get their opponents’ best shot every week.
It’s hard to project their fortunes vs the point spread with a new sheriff in town as HC. We will take a neutral view for now vs Vegas.
Want more UCF Knights football ?
WEBSITE
http://ucfknights.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
Free
https://ucf.forums.rivals.com/forums/ucf-fan-forum.8/
http://ucf.247sports.com/Board/UCF-Knights-Message-Board-Forum-59489
NEWS
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/ucf-knights/
http://bleacherreport.com/ucf-knights-football
http://knightnews.com/category/sports/football/
http://www.centralfloridafuture.com/sports/
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/central-florida-knights
TWITTER
Hashtag – #ChargeOn
Accounts to follow
https://twitter.com/UCF_Football