College Football Predictions – UCF Knights 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 12-1
ATS – 9-4
All great things must come to an end.
UCF went 745 (!) days without losing a football game. Let that sink in. They rolled through the AAC (again) and headed into the Fiesta Bowl with an undefeated record. They had to play the LSU Tigers without their star QB McKenzie Milton and fell to their SEC opponent by a score of 40-32. LSU was missing their top 34 players (estimate) on defense BUT the Knights get full marks for their fine 2018 campaign.
What can these guys do for an encore after winning the AAC in each of the last two years?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #1
American Athletic Conference – #1
UCF Knights 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Knights moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE and tallied 40+ PPG for the second consecutive season (43.2 PPG LY). They moved at a fast pace and had great balance (265 YPG rushing, 257 YPG passing). Sadly, their QB McKenzie Milton suffered a gruesome injury near the end of the campaign and we hope he can make it back on the field next year. Last year’s back-up Darriel Mack will miss the start of this season due to injury, but thankfully, they have former Notre Dame QB Brandon Wimbush to lead the way. Wimbush is not famous for his accuracy but is a VERY dangerous runner. It will be interesting to see how quickly he adapts to this offense. The THROW GAME should be dangerous provided that Wimbush can DEAL THE ROCK with reasonable accuracy. The WR unit is a talented and speedy group that brings back last year’s #1 target Gabriel Davis (815, 15.4, 7 TD) who was a 2nd Team AAC honoree.
There’s an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions. 1,000-yard RB Greg McCrae is a legit #1 option and it’s never a bad idea to RELEASE THE KILLINS. Adrian Killins is a lethal weapon that rushed for over 700 yards and averaged almost 20 (!) yards per reception in 2018. They will be running behind one of the most talented offensive lines in college football that returns three (!) 1st Team AAC performers (C, RG, RT), and don’t forget, these guys averaged an amazing 5.8 YPC LY (#8 FBS) and allowed just 19 sacks (#2 AAC).
We expect more fireworks this year, although it’s hard to call for 40+ PPG without knowing if Wimbush can be effective in the THROW GAME.
DEFENSE
UCF gets a lot of notoriety for their explosive offense but their DEFENSE has been really good in recent times finishing #2, #3 and #3 in AAC scoring defense over the last three campaigns. Only five starters return on this side of the football but there are still a handful of potential stars, and don’t forget that these guys only had five and four returning starters in 2018 and 2017 respectively.
The primary concern on defense, and it’s a big one, is the status of the defensive line. They only return one starter to the fold, and recall that the Knights were gauged for 222 YPG on the ground LY (#9 AAC). The LB and DB units look solid, particularly with the return of their top-two tacklers from a season ago (LB Nate Evans – 1st Team AAC, FS Richie Grant – 1st Team AAC), and we REALLY like the look of the secondary. UCF was rock solid vs the pass LY (#3 pass efficiency D AAC, 16-14 TD to INT) and they return three starters to the mix including a pair of men that collected 1st Team AAC hardware in 2018. It looks like they will add Duke grad transfer SS Jordan Hayes to the back-end of the defense as we approach press time.
This is still one of the better stop units in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
Both primary return men are back this year, but they need to find replacements for their excellent PK,P combination.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – They get Florida A&M in non-conference play, but they also face Florida Atlantic, Stanford and Pittsburgh. That’s a welcome change from BOB SMITH TUBA SCHOOL, Huckleberry Pie Tech A&M and Corn Dog U. They have tough road trips in conference action (Cincinnati, Temple) but get the season finale with USF at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Florida Atantic (September 7)
The FIGHTING KIFFINS are going to be good and this game takes place before a big home game with Stanford, a chance to SHOCK THE WORLD, if you will.
Season Win Total
Over 9 -140
Under 9 +120
MEGALOCKS says:
That looks about right to us. The Knights are solid yet AGAIN, but we’ll take a pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The rivalry with the USF Bulls is known as the “War on I–4” or “I–4 Corridor Clash”. The Bulls lead the series 6-4.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
Haters beware. UCF is going to really good. Again. The FLY IN THE OINTMENT may be a tougher schedule and an AAC conference that is rapidly improving from top to bottom. They are definitely the favorite to win the conference but are not the CLEAR choice like they were last year. That’s just the humble opinion of our AAC INSIDERS.
The Knights have been CRAZY GOOD vs the point spread over the past ten years racking up an ATS mark of 58%. In fact, the Knights have only posted one losing season vs Vegas since 2011 (!). We’ll take a overall neutral view on their ATS prospects for now, but we could have easily gone with a positive slant. Our primary concern is the fact that they are DEGENERATE DARLINGS and will not be offering much theoretical value at the windows. Then again, that’s what we thought the last two years (16-8-1 ATS).
Good luck, Knights!
Want more UCF Knights football ?
WEBSITE
http://ucfknights.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
https://ucf.forums.rivals.com/forums/ucf-fan-forum.8/
http://ucf.247sports.com/Board/UCF-Knights-Message-Board-Forum-59489
NEWS
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/ucf-knights/
http://bleacherreport.com/ucf-knights-football
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2116/ucf-knights
http://knightnews.com/category/sports/football/
http://www.centralfloridafuture.com/sports/
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/central-florida-knights
TWITTER
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