College Football Predictions – UCF Knights 2020 College Football Preview
August 21, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 6-7
The Knights’ football program has gotten to the point where it’s viewed by many as a “disappointment” when they “only” win 10 games. After finishing the 2017 and 2018 seasons with a combined mark of 25-1 (!) UCF lost a few close games last year and failed to make the AAC Championship Game. Those three losses were by a total of seven (!) points so it’s fair to say that they weren’t too far off from another magical campaign.
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
American Athletic Conference – #1
<Note. No divisions this year. One 11-team conference.>
UCF Knights 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Knights rolled for over 500 YPG (541) for the third consecutive season and ended the year #2 in the FBS in total offense and #5 in scoring offense (43.4). They did it all with a true freshman QB who shone in his first season. Dillon Gabriel threw for over 3,600 yards and booked a fine 29-7 TD to INT ratio whilst completing 59% of his passes. The yards and points should come by the BUSHEL FULL this year as plenty of weapons are at Gabriel’s disposal, even with the departure of #1 WR Gabriel Davis’ to the NFL (Bills). The #2, #3 and #4 WRs are back for duty (Nixon, Williams, Harris) and they combined for almost 2,000 yards and 14 TDs LY. The RB unit is loaded as per usual and boasts the return of leading rusher Otis Anderson (726, 6.4, 5 TD) and three of their top-four leading rushers from LY. The offensive line took a hit with the graduation of a pair of excellent players but returns three starters to the mix, and note that offensive line play has been consistently solid over the past few years.
This is still clearly one of the top offenses in college football.
DEFENSE
It’s hard to get noticed when the offense is so spectacular, but it’s worth noting that the Knights have played solid defense for a number of years. They’ve allowed between 23 and 25 PPG in each of the last four campaigns and finished LY ranked #3 in the AAC in scoring defense and #2 in total defense. They were equally stingy vs the run (#3 AAC run defense) and the pass (#1 AAC pass efficiency defense). This looks like another excellent stop unit as they return eight starters including four seniors (!) to an excellent secondary. UCF had an excellent 17-13 TD to INT ratio LY and allowed just 52% completions. That makes it four consecutive years of 55% or better. The DL and LB group are a bit of a question with the departure of leading tackler LB Nate Evans (Jacksonville) and #1 sack man Brendon Hayes (7.5).
This is still one of the top defenses in the conference. The secondary should be outstanding and we’re confident that they’ll find top performers at DL and LB given their recent history of success.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It’ll be tough to replicate the excellent job that PK Dylan Barnas did LY (15/17 FG, 69/70 XP) and the Knights were just #100 in the FBS in net punting LY. The need to uncover a new primary KR but PR Otis Anderson is still available and he took one to the HOUSE in 2019.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Nine games are set so far. They should be able to take care of their non-conference foe Georgia Tech when they visit Atlanta. They face both Memphis (A) and Cincinnati (H). That meeting the Bearcats near the end of November will be must-see TV. Their first two AAC opponents should allow them to get off to a quick start (at East Carolina, Tulsa).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at USF (November 27th)
This rivalry game comes off a pair of physical games (Temple, Cincinnati) and you know that USF will give a max effort. Not an ideal spot to lay a ton of points.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number. <also awaiting finalized schedule>
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The UCF football journey started in 1979 at the Division III level. They played their first game on September 22nd of that year and defeated something called St Leo University (W 21-0). They played their first home game a week later and slithered by an iron-tough Ft. Benning squad by a score of 7-6.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
SHOCKER. This team looks loaded yet again. The offense will still be one of the most potent in the country and the defense looks like one of the top-three in the AAC. It’s all here for the taking. We’ll call for a trip to the AAC Championship Game and a meeting with the Bearcats.
#ChargeOn !
Want more UCF Knights football ?
WEBSITE
https://ucfknights.com/sports/football
FORUM
https://ucf.forums.rivals.com/forums/ucf-fan-forum.8/
http://ucf.247sports.com/Board/UCF-Knights-Message-Board-Forum-59489
NEWS
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/ucf-knights/
http://knightnews.com/category/sports/football/
https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2116/ucf-knights
TWITTER
Hashtag – #ChargeOn
Accounts to follow