UCF Knights 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 6, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 6-7
ATS – 5-7-1
“We’re going streaking!”
<Frank the Tank, Old School>
The Knights began the season in fine form at 3-0 and that start included a road win (!) over the mighty Boise St Broncos on the blue turf. Then came the losing streak. UCF didn’t think it’d be easy moving to the Big 12 but they got a splash of ice cold water in the face as they lost their first five conference games. Things didn’t look good at that point but they got hot again and won three of their final four games to qualify for a bowl game. The highlight of that late season spurt was a 45-3 INCINERATION of Oklahoma St. The Knights dropped the Gasparilla Bowl to Georgia Tech and finished the year with a losing record for the first time since 2016.
UCF Knights 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Knights moved the ball on the ground like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE LY (228 YPG, #5 FBS) and there promises to be more fun in 2024. UCF might have the best RB room in the entire country given the return of star RB RJ Harvey (1,416, 16 TD) and Johnny Richardson (6.6 YPC), and the addition of all-Universe RB Peny Boone from Toledo (1,400, 7.2, 15 TD LY). When you add the running ability of new starting QB KJ Jefferson from Arkansas (!) it appears that the ground attack might be unstoppable. Jefferson has some nice THROW GAME weaponry to rely upon including the devastating Kobe Hudson (900, 8 TD, 20.5), Ohio transfer Jacoby Jones, and former Auburn Tiger Ja’Varius Johnson. The only question lurks up front where the Knights are in a rebuilding mode of sorts (lots of bodies, no clear starting five yet). If the offensive line gels quickly this offense has the potential to go FREAKY FREAKY all night long.
DEFENSE
UCF allowed a respectable 26 PPG LY (#5 Big 12) but they were absolutely steamrolled by opposing ground games (194 YPG, last Big 12). The 2024 DL has a few players with good size on the interior including Lee Hunter (11 TFL) and they retain DE Malachi Lawrence who booked 7.5 sacks LY. We love the transfer additions at LB, particularly Deshawn Pace who led Cincinnati in tackles in 2023. The Knights were solid on the back end LY (#22 pass efficiency defense, 12-12 TD to INT) and they’ve brought in a boatload of transfers to deal with the required rebuild. We like the back end talent available to new DC Ted Roof but it remains to be seen how effective these guys will be playing together for the first time. <grabs popcorn>
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Knights ranked a disgusting #122 on special teams LY according to the Steele ratings and they’ll have the same cast of characters back for duty this season. They’ll need to get more out of the return game and from PK Colton BOOMER (13/21 FG LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Knights open up with a pair of TOMATO CANS (New Hampshire, Sam Houston) but their 3rd non-conference battle comes on the road vs Florida (!). The list of Big 12 assignments sets up nicely as they miss Kansas St (!) and get to face Utah at home in the final week of the regular season. One downer to note is that they’ve got to make road trips to face Iowa St and TCU.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing heinous to report.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 6
Over 7.5 -115
Under 7.5 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
After starting 2-0, can they go 6-4 in their final 10 games? We say, YOU BETCHA.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment card.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Gus Malzahn is 16-4 SU at home with the Knights but just 7-10 SU in true road games.
It wasn’t too long ago that UCF made one of the most impressive turnarounds in college football history. They barfed their way to an 0-12 record in 2015, but just two short years later, they rolled to a perfect 13-0 season led by your boy Scott Frost and star QB McKenzie Milton.
Satan makes his home at Walt Disney World, about 40 miles from the UCF campus.**
** Fact check: Seems believable.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
GET CHO POPCONE because these guys are gonna be fun to watch on offense. The rushing attack will be able to carve up most of their opponents but the question becomes, can the defense do their part? It’s hard to know what to expect from the stop unit but there’s definitely lots of talent on board. We’ll call for eight wins and think they’ve got a chance to make serious noise in the Big 12 if they can upset TCU or Iowa St on the road. Good luck, Knights!