UCLA Bruins 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 11, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 6-7
Things got off to a good start as the Bruins smoked a trio of TOMATO CANS by a combined score of 121-30 (!) but they failed the big test the following week as they fell to Utah on the road (L 14-7) despite holding the Utes to a mere 219 yards of total offense. UCLA couldn’t get any traction the rest of the way and dropped another four conference games (!), but at least they managed to spank their hated rivals from USC (W 38-20). The Bruins finished on a strong note by handling Boise St in the Jimmy Kimmel Hollywood Scumbags LA Bowl to finish at 8-5.
The Bruins are off to the Big Ten and they’ve got a new HC in DeShaun Foster. How do things look as they head into their new surroundings?
UCLA Bruins 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Bruins were a major disappointment on offense LY (26.5 PPG, #70 FBS) and a main factor contributing to the mediocrity was the unnecessary QB shuffle early in the season which prevented anyone from getting into a rhythm. QB Ethan Garbers was the best of the bunch (67%, 11-3 TD to INT LY) and he’ll be leading the offense in 2024. The Bruins have a legit #1 RB in TJ Harden (827, 8 TD) but the depth behind him doesn’t look that great on paper. There’s better news when it comes to the THROW GAME weaponry as the Bruins retain their top-three in receiving yards including WR J Michael Sturdivant (597, 4 TD, 16.6) and TE Moliki Matavao who averaged 20 YPC (!) in 2023. And don’t sleep on Notre Dame transfer WR Rico Flores who’s a very intriguing addition. Things look fine up front as the Bruins return three starters and boast over 100 career starts in the unit. This looks like an average Big Ten offense on paper and UCLA will need Garbers to stay healthy as unlike LY, the depth behind him is unproven.
DEFENSE
UCLA was brilliant on defense LY (18 PPG, #14 FBS) and they were a BRICK WALL vs the run (81 YPG, #2) whilst achieving impressive PENETRATION (43 sacks, #7). The alarm bells are sounding this year and the biggest problem area is on the DL where the Bruins lose a lot of talent including a 1st round NFL draft pick in Laiatu Latu (13 sacks, 21.5 TFL) and Gabriel Murphy (8 sacks, 16 TFL).The best news on defense relates to the return of their #2 and #3 tacklers in LB Kain Medrano (7 TFL) and LB Oluwafemi Oladejo. The Bruins were efficient vs the pass LY (#19 pass efficiency D, 16-15 TD to INT) but they lose three starters in the secondary and figure to be down a notch.
SPECIAL TEAMS
DANGER! DANGER!
UCLA has to do something about the SIMPLE JACK field goal kicking situation (8/17 team FG LY, 47%, worst FBS) and we’re not sure what they’ve got planned. Something called a Blake Glessner is listed #1 on the depth chart and he was 2/6 in FG attempts in 2023. The Bruins will be working with a new punter and need to find decent return men. Other than all of that, things appear to be awesome.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s challenging despite avoiding Ohio St and Michigan in Big Ten action as they’ve still gotta face Oregon (H), Penn St (A), and Iowa (H). The Bruins have an automatic loss in non-conference action (at LSU) and the other two out-of-conference tilts aren’t as automatic as they seem (at Hawaii, Indiana). At least they don’t have to deal with back-to-back road games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Penn St (Oct 5)
Penn St throws one of the toughest home field advantages at you and this contest pops up right after the games with Oregon and LSU.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 11
Over 5.5 +135
Under 5.5 -175
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
This year’s roster is down a notch in the talent department and the schedule is tougher.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment card.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
UCLA has banked three consecutive seasons with eight or more wins (8,9,8), but previous to those successful campaigns, the last time that the Bruins cobbled together eight victories was back in 2015.
The Bruins have been a disaster vs the point spread over the L10Y (52-67-1, 44%) and they’ve been particularly awful in the role of home favorite (16-29, 36%).
Four out five people in a recent scientific survey would rather live in a giant unflushed toilet than in Los Angeles. **
** Fact check: Trust the science.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
We know that Chip Kelly failed to deliver the goods, but we’re gonna miss him at UCLA, and that 2022 team was one of our favorite squads to watch over the last few seasons. In any event, the 2024 version of UCLA football could be in trouble as the offense looks average and the defense will allow the opposition to have a lot more fun than they did last year. We’ll call for five wins and don’t think these guys will go bowling in 2023.