College Football Predictions – ULM Warhawks 2020 College Football Preview
August 9, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 4-8
The Warhawks came within a HAIR of gaining bowl eligibility but lost a heartbreaker to their rival from Lafayette in the final week of the regular season (L 31-30). They were an exciting team to watch but were very inconsistent and failed to win back-to-back games. ULM managed to defeat four Sun Belt opponents but those teams were generally among the bottom feeders in the conference (Coastal Carolina, Texas St, South Alabama, Georgia St). The highlight of the season COULD have been a road win at Florida St but they fell by a point in a dramatic game (L 45-44).
Let’s see what’s in store for the Warhawks in 2020.
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #3
Sun Belt – #8
ULM Warhawks 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Warhawks boasted one of the best offenses in the Sun Belt last year (#5 Sun Belt rushing offense, #3 passing) and averaged 38 PPG (!) in their final five contests. They booked over 200 YPG on the ground and via the THROW GAME. There’s a yuuuuuge hole to fill at QB as their excellent dual threat QB Caleb Evans (21 passing TDs, 12 rushing TDs) has moved on. It’s unclear who will win the starting job as we approach press time but it’ll certainly be someone with a LOT less experience than the school’s #2 all-time leading passer. Last season’s leading receiver Markis McCray is gone but they return their excellent TE Josh Pederson who was #2 on the team in receptions and yards (9 TDs) LY, as well as their #2 and #3 wideouts. The best news is the return of dynamic RB Josh Johnson who rushed for almost 1,300 yards a season ago whilst tallying 11 TDs. The offensive line was a team strength LY with many solid seniors and it’s a big question mark in 2020 with just a pair of returning starters.
The offense is most definitely going to take a step backwards without Evans at QB and note that their ace OC left for Southern Miss.
DEFENSE
Whatever that was a season ago, it didn’t resemble defense. The Warhawks’ stop unit was among the worst in college football allowing 38.7 PPG (#127 FBS) and 484 YPG (#128). It doesn’t seem possible, but they allowed 253 YPG on the ground (#128). Looking for PENETRATION? They were #7 in the conference in TFL/game and booked just 20 sacks after tallying 34 in 2018. This year’s defense boasts eight returning starters, the majority of which are seniors. Yes, these guys didn’t exactly “gel” a season ago, but we almost always like to see returning experience. The entire starting secondary is back for battle (25-10 TD to INT LY) but the LB corps will need to survive without tackling machine LB Cortez Sisco Jr. (114), and the DL will be without leading sack man DE Donald Louis Jr. (5.5). The good news? CB Corey Straughter is one of the best at his position in the Sun Belt (5 INT LY) and DE Kerry Starks bagged five sacks in 2019.
They’ll improve a bit this year but it’s still one of the weakest defenses in the Sun Belt.
<update. LY’s #3 tackler and projected starting LB Rashaad Harding has opted out of the 2020 season>
SPECIAL TEAMS
Jared Porter is back to handle the PK and punting duties. He’s one of the best punters in the conference but hasn’t proven to be a reliable field goal kicker (7/12 LY, 0-2 from 40+). The return game was WEAK SAUCE in 2019.
Schedule Analysis
Overall –
The nasty road docket just got a LOT easier given the cancellations with SEC foes Georgia and Arkansas. The first part of the schedule is very light (Cal Poly, Texas St, Georgia Southern, at Liberty) so we hope for their sake they can bag some wins before November rolls around.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at South Alabama (October 22nd)
This will be their third road test in 13 days (!) and the Jags will be improved this year.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
Our DEEP SUN BELT INSIDERS seem to think this will be a tough year for the Warhawks. The offense won’t be the same and it’s hard to have any faith whatsoever in the defense. We hope they can cobble their way to a winning record but it’s going to be really difficult. We’ll call for a losing season in Monroe in 2020.
Want more ULM Football ?
WEBSITE
https://ulmwarhawks.com/sports/football
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/louisiana-monroe/Board/Louisiana-Football-104299/
https://ulm.forums.rivals.com/forums/warhawk-insider-site-subscribers-only.12/
NEWS
https://www.thenewsstar.com/sports/ulm/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2433/ul-monroe-warhawks
TWITTER
Hashtags – #DefendTheNest, #TalonsOut
Accounts to follow