ULM Warhawks 2021 College Football Preview
Created July 12, 2021
2020 Recap
Record – 0-10
ATS – 3-7
WHOA, NELLIE. That wasn’t pretty.
The Warhawks sputtered and gagged their way to an 0-10 record and lost every game except one (Georgia Southern) by at least 18 points. They were outscored in their final two contests by a combined score of 118-35. We knew it’d be a tough season, but it was still a bit surprising to see them go winless on the year. Let’s see what new HC Terry Bowden has to work with in 2021.
ULM Warhawks 2021 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Warhawks were able to MATRICULATE the ball down the field in the THROW GAME at times LY (229 YPG, #65 FBS) but had one of the worst rushing attacks in the FBS (76 YPG). Both Colby Suits and Jeremy Hunt are back at QB (combined 14-11 TD to INT) and they add a very interesting transfer in Rhett Rodriguez from Arizona (!) who will be given every chance to win the starting job. He should have an advantage given that he’s familiar with the new offense being installed by Rich Rodriguez. Yes, THAT Rich Rodriguez. It’s unclear what they have at RB given the departure of #1 RB Josh Johnson (1,298 yards, 11 TD in 2019, NFL-Seahawks). Their fine TE Josh Pederson is off to the NFL but the everyone of consequence is back in the WR room and we expect decent production. There are also some interesting transfers being added to the mix. Only three starters return up front and that’s a major concern given the trouble they had running the football LY. They also allowed 27 sacks in 10g (#7 Sun Belt, sacks allowed per game). We project over 20 PPG (16.3 LY) as Rich ROD should be able to squeeze a bit more out of the offense.
DEFENSE
ULM got rolled by opposing ground games (249 YPG, last Sun Belt) and didn’t fare much better vs the THROW GAME in 2020 (last Sun Belt pass efficiency D, 9.9/attempt, 20-4 TD to INT). They only booked 13 sacks in 10 games which placed them 8th in the conference on a per-game basis. There’s some hope this season with a few good pieces to build around. The have a pair of really good safeties in Austin Hawley and Jabari Johnson who both finished in the T3 in tackles LY whilst booking a combined 7 TFL and an INT. LB Traveion Webster led the team in tackles LY and they get a fine Power 5 transfer in LB Ja’Cquez Williams who led Wake Forest in tackles in 2020 (#2 2019). The biggest concern is up front where the size and talent appears limited. We should see a bit of improvement in 2021.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Danger! Danger!
The Warhawks need to break in a new PK as well as a new P. They were very poor in the return game in 2020. Fun fact – They allowed an impossible four blocked punts LY. Hopefully, transfer PK Calum Sutherland (Oklahoma) (!) can provide some consistency in the FG department.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – As you can imagine prospects for the non-conference slate are dire but at least they get to face something called Jacksonville St in week two. They draw a road game with the Chanticleers and note they only have one home game after October 23rd.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at LSU (November 20th)
Not a spot we’ll likely be backing the Warhawks, even considering they’ll be catching a ton of points. LSU has bigger fish to try BUT this will be ULM’s 3rd road game in four weeks and they have the rivalry game with Louisiana on deck. BLOODBATH incoming.
Season Win Total
per 5Dimes July 12
Over 1.5 +130
Under 1.5 -150
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over.
Assuming they get past Jacksonville St that means pulling just one upset in Sun Belt play. Worth a shot at plus money. Maybe.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
Terry Bowden did an amazing job with the Akron Zips not that long ago and this task looks just as daunting. There’s definitely enough talent to bag a win or two, but it’s hard to expect much more in the short term. Brick by brick, yo.
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