UNLV Rebels 2016 NCAA Football Preview
UNLV REBELS
Mountain West Conference – West Division
2015 Record – 3-9
ATS – 5-7
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
West Division #4
Conference #9
2015 Recap
UNLV had some decent moments despite finishing the season at 3-9. Everyone knew it was going to be a rebuilding season but they managed to win the Fremont Cannon beating rival Nevada on the road. They played a very good Northern Illinois team tough, lost in OT to a bowl team (San Jose St) and managed to score 80 points in a game (FCS team – Idaho St). Most importantly, first year UNLV coach Tony Sanchez found out he has some pretty good players on the roster. They just need more of them.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
The Rebels’ running game should be really good this season. The offensive line has some size and they return a deep stable of talented RBs. They also have a pair of very good WRs including rising star Devonte Boyd who was a 2nd Team Mountain West performer (907 yards 7 TDs 16.7). There is a competition for the starting QB position with Kurt Palandech battling newcomer Johnny Stanton. Both of them looked ok in limited action in the spring game that was cut short due to lightning.
JOHNNY FOOTBALL ALERT – The Rebels are most likely going to start transfer Johnny Stanton at QB and he is the dual-threat that could help propel UNLV to bowl season. Stanton did not make an impact at Nebraska as he had hoped but had a fine season in the junior college ranks in 2015 where he accounted for 37 TDs (25 passing and 12 rushing).
DEFENSE
The UNLV defense improved last season by approximately 5 points and 50 yards per game. The odds are that the Rebels continue the improvement in 2016. Eight starters return on defense along with some talented junior college transfers. The LB core looks particularly strong. Our biggest concern is getting pressure on QB as they had a pathetic 9 sacks last season (ranked dead last in FBS). It is hard to call for too much progress this season but it is not out of the question to see the defense drop another 5 points per game off the scoreboard.
SPECIAL TEAMS
There is not much on paper that points to this being a strength of the team. Senior PK Nicolai Bornand was 12/17 last season but the Rebels need to introduce a new punter. We will see if they mix up the return teams as they did not help themselves with improved field position last year.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 9.0
MEGALOCKS says:
UNLV looks poised to have an exciting season. Optimism is running high. It is all going to hinge on the QB play and the defense turning it up a notch in terms of making a run at a bowl game or just having a decent season ATS. There are three almost unwinnable games (at UCLA, at Boise St, at San Diego St) but they should be competitive in every other contest.
Overall, we give the REBELS an 9.0 ATS Value Rating (Excellent) this season. We have a lot of optimism regarding this UNLV team as far as beating the number. Even if the Rebels fail to get to a bowl game we can easily see them covering seven or more games without a problem. They are currently on a 13-5 ATS run as road dogs (72%) since 2012 and will be in that role several times this season.
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https://twitter.com/tdewey33 (@tdewey33) Todd Dewey