College Football Predictions – UNLV Rebels 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 6-6
It was….A Bridge Too Far.
UNLV needed to beat their bitter rival from Reno in the season finale to qualify for bowl eligibility. They had the lead in the 2nd half but couldn’t close the deal. It’s painful to look back and see what could have been. They lost to something called Howard in week one. They blew a 27-CACK lead at Air Force. They did however, fail to quit, and emerged victorious in three of their final five games. That stretch included a road win over Fresno St (!).
Can the Rebels take a small step forward and get themselves a bowl invite?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain West – Tied #9
West Division – Tied #3
UNLV Rebels 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Rebels have an emerging star at QB in Armani Rogers who showed flashes of what is to come during his freshman campaign. Rogers rushed for 780 yards and 8 TDs and threw 6 TD passes last season and missed some action due to injury. The WR group loses their #1 receiver Devonte Boyd but bring back #2, #3 and #4. Rogers will need to improve his accuracy (52.4% LY) to get the most out of the passing game.
The real treat in the offense is star RB Lexington Thomas who enters his senior season coming off a fantastic 1,300-yard performance last year while rushing for 17 TDs and gaining over 6 yards a pop. They also get back RB Charles Williams who missed almost all of last season due to injury. The offensive line has paved the way for 240 or more rushing yards in each of the past two seasons and they return 3/5 starters to the mix. Rogers and Thomas are a dynamic combination and we expect UNLV to increase their scoring production in 2018 (28.8 PPG LY).
DEFENSE
UNLV featured an inexperienced unit last season but still managed to hold opponents to 31.8 PPG, their lowest total since 2013 (also 31.8 PPG). They did give up a ton of yards (#113 total defense) and had all kinds of trouble stopping the run (#122 FBS). This year they bring back seven starters including the entire starting LB group. A pair of starters return in the secondary including leading tackler S Dalton Baker. They have added JC transfers to the DL and need to get at least “average” performance out of the defensive front in order to make meaningful strides.
Hopefully new DC Tim Skipper (Florida staff LY) can make a bit of a difference. His biggest challenge is going to be getting the Rebels to increase their PENETRATION level as they only compiled 11 (!) sacks in 12 games last year. In fact, UNLV has ranked #126, #103 and DEAD LAST in sacks over the past three seasons and totaled a mere 39 (!) over that time span. New Mexico St had 43 last season alone.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Uh, oh. The return units were dismal last season and the punting was worse (#127 net punting; 30.6 yard net). PK Evan Pantels made 17/22 FG attempts but was just 6/11 from 40+ yards. This could be a problem area.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It looks very manageable. The opening game at USC will be really tough but the rest of the schedule is not bad at all. It can’t hurt to have UTEP and Prairie View A&M on the dance card (yes, we know they lost to Howard last year). Unfortunately they have the rivalry date with Nevada right after a game in Hawaii.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Hawaii (November 17). They play the nasty defense of San Diego St on November 10th and will not have time to fully ice their aching bodies before they fly out to Hawaii. Nevada is on deck.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -135
Under 6 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Hmm. We were hoping for a 5.5 to take a small taste of the over. Six wins at a steep price is too much for our liking right now. Our best guess is that they will head into the season finale with five or six wins.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Rebels have not had a HC leave the program with a winning record since Tony Knap’s epic run from 1976-1981 (47-20-2; .696). Amaze your SMOKESHOW YOGA INSTRUCTOR with that gem.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the REBELS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
Enough, already. AMIRITE?
HC Tony Sanchez has quietly led the team to increased win totals in each of his three seasons, from two wins in 2014, to five victories in 2017. The rushing attack has the potential to be really scary with a pair of high-octane backs and a mobile QB. If Rogers can take a step forward is his development, the Rebels will have more than enough firepower to win 6+ games. The question is the defense. Their stop unit still has to be considered one of the worst in the conference on paper, but then again, the games are played on the field. Maybe the new DC will have an answer?
UNLV has a 12-12 ATS mark over the past two seasons. It’s probably best to pick your spots with the Rebels vs the point spread. Keep in mind that Sanchez has an impressive 11-4 ATS mark as a road dog. Not saying, just saying.
Go Rebels!
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