College Football Predictions – UNLV Rebels 2020 College Football Preview
July 2020
OCTOBER 2020 – Schedule notes updated.
2019 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 6-6
Oh, boy.
The Rebels slogged their way through the season and ended up with their 6th consecutive losing season. There were a couple of highlights, not including their season-opening win over FCS foe Southern Utah. They bagged a win over an SEC (!) opponent when they SHOCKED THE WORLD and destroyed Vanderbilt (W 34-10), and as if that wasn’t enough, they finished the year with a pair of wins over San Jose St and their bitter rival from Reno.
The Tony Sanchez era is over and it’s time to see what new head coach Marcus Arroyo can do with the Rebels. Let’s go!
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – TBD
Mountain West – TBD
UNLV Rebels 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Rebels finished the season with mediocre offensive numbers (24.2 PPG, #9 MW; #9 total offense MW) but did show some spark later in the year when they scored 73 total points in wins over the Spartans and Wolfpack. QB Kenyon Oblad started the final eight games and appears to be a LEGIT QB going forward for the Rebels. Oblad wasn’t incredibly efficient (54%, 18-9 TD to INT) LY but definitely has a LICENSE TO IMPROVE off of his freshman campaign, and note that there is continuity in the THROW GAME given that most of the top producers are back this season. That includes WR Randal Grimes who led the team in receptions, yards, and TDs a season ago. THE HITS KEEP COMING with the return of 1,200-yard rusher Charles Williams (5.9, 11 TD) and backup Chad Magyar. Three starters are back on the offensive line but they lose center Sid Acosta to graduation.
We look for a significant improvement on offense and a shot to reach 30 PPG for the first time since 2016.
DEFENSE
This might get ugly.
The Rebels were abysmal LY and ended the campaign ranked poorly in almost every key defensive metric including scoring defense (#11 MW), run defense (#8), pass efficiency D (#9) and sacks (dead last, 13). Things look a bit sketchy heading into this year as they lose their top-three (!!) tacklers from a season ago and don’t appear to have much talent (on paper) at any level of the defense. They have some senior talent on the DL, and some JC transfers to speak of, but it’s hard to believe in a stop unit that was so poor a season ago. They will will almost certainly struggle from a pass rush perspective given that nobody on the squad LY had more than two (!) sacks.
This will be one of the worst defenses in the country. The good news is that if they find a way to bag some turnovers or achieve PENETRATION, the offense is good enough to steal a few games.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Daniel Gutierrez is definitely a positive in the special teams unit (35/36 XP, 11/14 FG LY) but they need to find a new punter and note that the Rebels were mighty stinky in the return department LY (#117 FBS KR, #126 PR).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The plandemic schedule isn’t kind. They draw the two killers out of the Mountain division (Boise, Wyoming) and start the year with a visit to San Diego St. They end with a road game at Hawaii which is a nice way to end the year.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing heinous noted.
Season Win Total
TBD
MEGALOCKS says:
TBD
MEGAmazing Tidbits
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
There’s no doubt this will be a tough year for the Rebels but we fully expect them to put up some points. The defense? More points! We’re excited to see what new HC Marcus Arroyo can do and the good news is that he has a legit QB to take the reigns in 2020. Best case scenario is three to four wins and a significant upset along the way. We’ll be cheering for them!
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