College Football Predictions – UNLV Rebels 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 6-6
Things started out well with a decent showing at USC (good teams win, great teams cover) and a pair of wins over patsies UTEP and Prairie View A&M. The season went south around mid-season and they lost six consecutive games. UNLV finished well and pulled one of the most impressive SHOCK THE WORLD moments of the college football season with a road win at San Diego St (W 27-24) as 24-point underdogs. They even managed to beat Nevada in the season finale and finish the year on a high note.
Let’s find out what’s in the cards for UNLV this year.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #5
Mountain West – #9
UNLV Rebels 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
QB Armani Rogers is a dangerous dual-threat QB that needs to stay healthy if the Rebels want to be competitive in the Mountain West. Max Gilliam did a decent job in relief last year but Rogers is a yuuuuge problem for defenses given his excellent mobility. There is no doubt that Rogers needs to improve his accuracy as he completed just 44% of his passes last year (49.3% career). The WR group looks talented even though they will miss Brandon Presley who tore his ACL in the spring.
What about the rushing attack? Well, they are certainly going to miss their #2 all-time leading rusher in Lexington Thomas (1,067, 12 TD LY) but the hope is that Charles Williams can put up #1 RB numbers running behind a big and experienced offensive line. Don’t forget that the Rebels have rushed for well over 200 yards in each of the past three seasons. The depth behind Williams is a concern so hopefully he can withstand the grind of a full campaign.
UNLV has booked 29 PPG in each of the past two years. We think they cross over the 30 PPG mark in 2019.
DEFENSE
The Rebels allowed 37.3 PPG as season ago (dead last Mountain West) and that was their worst showing since they yielded 38.5 PPG in 2014. It’s unclear how much improvement to expect as the Rebels return just five starters and lose their top-two tacklers. The DL looks like it’s poised to make a move forward as they have decent size and get back DE Nick Dehdashtian who missed last year due to injury. The LB unit still looks a bit sketchy but senior Javin White is a good one and was #3 in tackles a season ago whilst bagging 6.5 TFL. The pass defense was disappointing last year (#9 MW pass efficiency defense) and the strategy to fix things appears to be jamming several JC transfers into the mix.
We project a slight improvement closer to the 2017 scoring defense metric (31.8 PPG) but still rate them as one of the weaker defenses in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It was a HOT MESS last season and things don’t look great on paper as we approach press time. P Hayes Hicken did a good job punting LY but they need to find a new PK and the return units were awful in 2018. Case in point. The Rebels averaged 3.0 yards per punt return (#126 FBS).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The first two games are winnable (home to Southern Utah, Arkansas St) but the next six games are nasty. If UNLV can find a way to cobble together a small handful of wins before November rolls around they can make a push for a bowl game. Their last four games are all manageable (at Colorado St, Hawaii, San Jose St, at Nevada).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – San Jose St (November 23)
The Rebels are just 4-9 ATS as home chalk the past three years and have lost eight of the last nine meetings vs the Spartans. The big rivalry game with Nevada is up next.
Season Win Total
Over 4 -125
Under 4 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. This team has enough talent to get to four wins (push) or higher (winner, winner, chicken dinner).
MEGAmazing Tidbits
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
It’s a great time to be alive. UNLV football is rarely boring. They can beat Fresno St and San Diego St as 20+ point dogs, and they can lose as 45-point favorites to something called Howard. We forecast a lot of variance in the results this year, and that can be expected when you have a good-looking offense and a bad defense. They have a shot to make things interesting if QB Armani Rogers can stay healthy.
UNLV has been a 50/50 ATS proposition in the four years of the Tony Sanchez experience and we see no reason why 2019 should be any different.
Go Rebels! Get to a bowl game.
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http://preview.reviewjournal.com/sports/unlv/unlv-football/
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http://bleacherreport.com/unlv-football
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