USC at Stanford – College Football Predictions
The Game
It’s a BIG TIME PAC 12 match-up on Saturday night as USC visits Stanford to take on the Cardinal. Both teams are legitimate contenders in their respective divisions and ONE of them will emerge with a big win on Saturday. Can Stanford exact some revenge for last season’s PAIR of losses to the Trojans? Let’s examine.
The Details
Stanford -5 USC (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Stanford -4.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Stanford 30.75 USC 25.75
The Match-Up
USC offense vs Stanford defense
Reading some of the “clippings” as we veteran handicappers will say, you would think that USC lost by two TDs to UNLV last week. They won the game 43-21 and had decent rushing numbers (219 yards, Ware and Carr combined for 154, TD) and decent MATRICULATION in the passing game thanks to the play of freshman QB JT Daniels. Fellow freshman WR Amon-Ra St Brown bagged 7 receptions for 98 yards and a TD vs the Rebels, and overall, the distribution was pretty good (8 players caught a pass). Stanford held the Aztecs to just 263 yards of offense last week but keep in mind that San Diego St does not have much of a passing attack AND Juwan Washington rushed for 158 yards and a TD. We still think that the Stanford offense may be the better unit (vs defense) and it remains to be seen how the Cardinal stack up against a legitimately balanced offense.
Stanford offense vs USC defense
Our STANFORD INSIDERS were not surprised by the performance of QB K.J. Costello last week (332 4 TD, 1 INT) but were a bit shocked by RB Bryce Love picking up a measly 29 yards on 18 carries. While you can say that was because the Aztecs put 17 men in the box to stop the run, that has not always worked for defenses in the past. USC allowed over 300 (!) yards to UNLV on the ground last week but there is no need to worry about a mobile QB in this game. We expect Love to pop a couple big ones but USC can still win this game if Love gets 120-180 yards rushing. The big question will be if they can stop the emerging JUGGERNAUT of a passing attack, and in particular, star WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside who had 226 yards receiving last week vs the Aztecs. it seems to us that Stanford should easily get into the 20s on offense and likely the low 30s. The Trojans have not proven they can play legit D and have not allowed less than 20 PPG in a season since…..<crickets> <lonnnnggggg tiiiiiiime>.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
USC beat the Cardinal twice last season but neither of those wins came on the ROAD.
Summary
We have high hopes for Stanford this season and last week’s effort was pretty much what we expected. It just feels like the spread has gotten crazy and maybe it comes back towards the -3/-4 range later in the week once the trillions of USC betting dollars flow in. Both teams are going to score and the UPSIDE with USC is pretty intriguing. Tough call at this number.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: No leanage. Would lean to Stanford if somehow, someway the line got smashed down to -4 or below.
Total: Slight lean to the over.