College Football Predictions – USC Trojans 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 4-8
Yikes.
The Trojans endured their first losing season since the turn of the century (2000), and in fact, it was only their fourth losing season since 1961. The final mark of 5-7 definitely puts HC Clay Helton on the proverbial HOT SEAT even though he led USC to a 21-6 record in the previous two campaigns. The Trojans sputtered in the 2nd half losing five of their final six games with the only win coming vs the awful Oregon St Beavers.
Does USC have the MINERALS to fight for a PAC 12 title? Let’s dig in.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
South Division – #2
PAC 12 – #6
USC Trojans 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The offense was a HOT MESS last season, particularly by USC standards, as they finished ranked #10 in the conference in total offense (#83 FBS). They had some success MATRICULATING the ball down the field in the passing game but could not get a consistent ground attack rolling (134 YPG – #106 FBS).
JT Daniels was decent as a true freshman (2672, 14-10 TD to INT, 59.5%) and should easily surpass the 3,000-yard plateau when you consider another year of development, not to mention working with new OC Graham Harrell who could have the Trojans looking like a well-oiled “Air Raid” machine. The WR group is literally an EMBARRASSMENT OF RICHES with their top-3 WR back from last season who combined for well over 2,000 yards and 15 TDs. Senior Michael Pittman averaged 18.5 yards per reception and seems destined to exceed the 1,000-yard barrier. Keep an eye on freshman Bru McCoy whose eligibility status is unclear as we go to press.
There is depth at RB but it’s unclear if someone will emerge as a true #1 back. The reality is that the passing game will be the focal point of the offense and we predict a balanced workload for the Trojans’ RB group. The Trojans seem like a great bet to exceed 30 PPG but they will only reach promising heights if the offensive line does a good job. It’s unclear whether that is a realistic possibility given that they return just 2/5 starters and did a mediocre job run blocking whilst allowing 27 sacks in 2018. Expect more points from the offense with bouts of inconsistency.
DEFENSE
The Trojans allowed 27.0 PPG last season and that was their worst mark since they gave up 28.1 PPG in 2000. Coincidentally, that was the last time that USC finished below .500. ADVANCED ANALYTICS GUY may have something more elegant to say BUT it’s simple; find a way to stop the opponent from scoring so many freaking points.
It all starts with getting more PENETRATION as the Trojans bagged fewer than 30 sacks for the 2nd time in the last three seasons. The DL should be solid as they have beef in the middle and senior DE Christian Rector is back for his senior campaign. Rector was 2nd on the team in TFL last season (9) and tied for the team lead in sacks (4.5). Watch out for freshman DE Drake Jackson who could make a yuuuuge impact in disrupting opposing offenses <grabs popcorn>. Senior LB John Houston was #2 in tackles in 2018 but the secondary does not have much experience (1/4 returning starters). The good news is that USC doesn’t face as many scary passing teams (at least on paper) as you would expect given their brutal schedule. More on that below. We expect a slight decrease in PPG due to improved TFL and sack numbers but they are definitely apt to get into some shootouts.
SPECIAL TEAMS
They should be fine at PK. Freshman Ben Griffiths takes over the punting duties and we are happy to report he is from Australia! Yes, guy. They have enough good athletes to cobble together decent return units and don’t forget that Tyler Vaughns took a punt to the house last year.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – WHOA NELLIE. One of the many reasons we respect USC is their willingness to deal with tough schedules. If it’s not Texas it’s ROLL TIDE. If it’s not ROLL TIDE, it’s Notre Dame. And then the PAC 12 gauntlet. This year they start out with a tough half dozen games, yo. Fresno St, Stanford, at BYU, Utah, at Washington, and at Notre Dame. If they can slide through those contests with a record of 4-2 or better with just one conference loss they should be in decent shape. Keep in mind that Utah hasn’t won at USC since 1916. Not saying, just saying.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at BYU (September 14)
We are pretty high on BYU and they are TOUGHER THAN A NIGHT IN JAIL. This game pops up between two of the Trojans’ biggie-size conference games (Stanford, Utah).
Season Win Total
Over 7 -125
Under 7 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
USC should be a much better team this season BUT that schedule is a killer. Slight LEANAGE to the ‘over’ but not sure if we’ll participate in this market.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The Los Angeles Memorial Stadium is often referred to as “The Grand Old Lady” having been built almost 100 years ago. USC has played their home games in this venue since the stadium was built in 1923.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
The Trojans are a puzzle wrapped up inside an enigma when it comes to prognosticating their fortunes vs the point spread. We feel that they are almost certain to achieve a better win-loss record than last season even with a very difficult schedule. The problem is that these guys are a “public” team with an impossibly HIDEOUS 55-76 ATS mark (42%) in all games over the past 10 seasons. THIN SLICING GUY can sort through the database and have fun coming up with winning 100 UNIT MAX BOMB trends with these dudes.
We anticipate an average season ATS and will look to pick our spots with what just may be an underrated squad. Keep in mind that HC Clay Helton is 19-3 SU at home and the Trojans may be worth a look in home games with spreads under a TD. Fight On!
Want more USC Football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.usctrojans.com/sports/m-footbl/usc-m-footbl-body.html
FORUM
https://wearesc.com/forum/index.php?forums/trojan-huddle.2/
http://usc.247sports.com/Board/Trojans-Message-Board-29
https://usc.forums.rivals.com/forums/trojan-talk.18/
NEWS
http://www.latimes.com/sports/usc/
http://www.conquestchronicles.com/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/30/usc-trojans
http://bleacherreport.com/usc-football
Hashtag – #FightOn
Accounts to follow
https://twitter.com/USC_Athletics