USC Trojans 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 14, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 4-9
The Trojans spurted out to a 6-0 start, but in a HARBINGER of things to come, the last two victories in that winning streak were CLOSE SHAVES. USC held on for dear life in a win over Colorado (W 48-41) and they needed 3OT (!) to get past a pesky Arizona squad. The Trojans were then smoked by Notre Dame (L 48-20) and the promising season went GLUG GLUG GLUG down the tubes as they only managed to pick up one more win during the regular season (Cal, 50-49). The year ended on a bit of a positive note as the Trojans demolished LUA-VUH in the Holiday Bowl (W 42-28), but the campaign was still a major disappointment when you consider the high expectations of players, coaches, and fans.
USC Trojans 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Trojans displayed some serious firepower LY (42 PPG, #3 FBS) but they’ll have to navigate the upcoming season without the services of 2022 Heisman Trophy winner QB Caleb Williams who was taken with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. USC will be fine at QB this season with the return of backup Miller Moss who’s FLASHED in limited action over the last few years (9-1 TD to INT) and the addition of UNLV’s young and talented QB Jayden Maiva (17-10 TD to INT, 3 rush TD LY. The RB room looks weaker with the loss of their top-two guys but former Mississippi St specimen Jo’quavious Marks should be a great fit for the offense as a rusher (career 1,883, 22 TD) and as a receiver out of the backfield (214 receptions, 143 L2Y!). We’re not crazy about the depth at RB but we’ll keep an eye on fall camp and see if any youngsters are making an impression. The Trojans also have a yuuuge hole to fill at WR given the departure of their top-two WRs (Washington, Rice) who combined for over 1,800 yards and 20 (!) TDs in 2023. WR Zachariah Branch has been much more dangerous as a return specialist so far and they’ll need some new faces to start producing right away. Thankfully, USC has a devastating threat at TE in Duce Robinson (351, 2 TD, 21.9!) and it’ll be interesting to see how good he can be in his 2nd year. The OL is a bit of a rebuilding project and it’ll probably take some time for them to figure things out as a group.
DEFENSE
USC has played some bad defense over the L3Y and the 2023 stop unit was flat out GARBAGE (34 PPG, #121). We’ve actually got a good vibe about the defense this season as they’ve upgraded at DC (D’Anton Lynn, UCLA) and did some good work thru the portal to accent the holdover pieces. The DL has plenty of talent including NG Bear Alexander and DE Jamil Muhammad (6.5 sacks, 10.5 TFL) and the LB corps is solid with the return of #1 tackler Mason Cobb and the addition of Oregon St transfer Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (#1 tackles with Beavers LY). The Trojans were atrocious vs the pass LY (#119 pass efficiency D) but they’ve restocked the cupboard on the back end with a lot of quality transfers. Akili Arnold (Oregon St) and Kamari Ramsey (UCLA) will make a good starting safety tandem and we like the addition of CB John Humphrey (UCLA). We don’t expect miracles but there’s no doubt we’ll see improvement in the stop unit this year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
USC might have the best special teams in the Big Ten given the return of star return man Zachariah Branch (PR TD, KR TD LY), punter Eddie Czaplicki, and PK Denis Lynch (10/14 FG LY). Also note that they added PK Michael Lantz who’s done some good work over his career with Georgia Southern and Minnesota (31/41 FG, 98/101 XP).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s gonna be a challenge to navigate this BAD BOY. The Trojans open with a compelling neutral site date (LSU!) and they end the regular season with a game against Notre Dame (H). The Big Ten schedule isn’t a total nightmare but they’ve gotta face Michigan (A) and Penn St (H).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Wisconsin (Sept 28)
This looks like a prime letdown spot as they need to fly back out west to face a scrappy Wisconsin team after playing on the road at Michigan.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 14
Over 7.5 -110
Under 7.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
The Trojans will probably have to split their four big games (LSU/Michigan/Penn St/Notre Dame) to hit the ‘over’. That’s possible, but it won’t be easy.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Lincoln Riley is not a man to be trusted ATS as a road favorite as he’s 8-17-1 (32%) in that point spread role over his career (2-6 with USC).
The all-time leading passer at USC is not Matt Leinart, or Carson Palmer, or Caleb Williams. It’s your boy Matt Barkley who threw for 12,327 yards during his tenure with the Trojans from 2009-2012.
Los Angeles is the location of the stellar TV show, ‘Bosch’. Get some, yo **.
** Fact check: You betcha.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Our favorite part of the significant conference realignment is that we’ll get to see USC battle teams like Michigan, Ohio St, and Penn St on a somewhat regular basis. This will be a tough transition season for the Trojans as even though the roster looks pretty good, the schedule is a bear. We’ll call for seven or eight wins and look forward to seeing some entertaining USC games this year.
FIGHT ON!