College Football Predictions – USF Bulls 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 4-9
Even when the Bulls got off to that hot 7-0 (!) start, you had to know things might take a turn for the worse. They beat up a SEVEN-PACK of PURE FILTH and really struggled once the meat of the schedule showed up. How does a six-game losing streak to end the year sound? That’s the genius of your pal, Charlie Strong. You never know what’s going to happen, but it probably won’t be great. The season wasn’t a disaster, but it was the fewest victories they had tallied since 2014.
Let’s take a look and see what the near future may hold.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #3
American Athletic Conference – #5
USF Bulls 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Bulls’ scoring output dropped for the second consecutive year as they posted 28.5 PPG (#7 AAC) in 2018. You knew it wasn’t going to be easy to replace the great Quinton Flowers and Blake Bennett had his ups and downs. He threw for over 2,700 yards but posted a pedestrian 12-11 TD to INT ratio.
This season, Bennett has a good set of weapons at his disposal when he chooses to MATRICULATE the ball down the field in the passing game. WR Randall St Felix led the Bulls in receiving yards LY and averaged over 20 (!) yards per reception, and don’t forget they add Michigan transfer WR Eddie McDOOM into the mix. The Bulls also boast one of the best receiving TEs in college football in Mitchell Wilcox (1st Team AAC) who caught 43 balls LY (12.6). The RB room returns a 1,000-yard rusher in Jordan Cronkrite and has good depth, even with the move to WR of last year’s #2 rusher Johnny Ford. THE HITS KEEP COMING! The offensive line has good size and returns four starters to a unit that paved the way for 4.9 YPC LY. They just need to cut down on the sacks allowed (38, 2nd last AAC LY).
New OC Kerwin Bell steps into a good spot. We think the Bulls will be much improved on offense and should produce similar output to what the 2015 team was able to accomplish (33.6 PPG).
DEFENSE
The Bulls allowed 30+ PPG LY (32.0) for the second time in three seasons and were REALLY bad vs the run allowing a whopping 248 YPG at 5.12 yards a pop. Only the wretched Connecticut defense was worse in both of those metrics. We still worry about their ability to stop the run as they will be without last year’s leading tackler LB Khalid McGee, although they do sport decent size and experience on the DL. USF performed well vs the pass a season ago (#5 AAC pass efficiency D, 15-11 TD to INT) and return their solid CB Mike Hampton. Our AAC ELIGIBILITY INSIDERS advise us that Notre Dame transfer Devin Studstill is eligible to compete this year and should fit in nicely at FS.
This has the look of a slightly-above average AAC unit. We look for them to make mild improvement and allow close to 30 PPG.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
The Bulls appear to have one of the best units in the conference. PK Coby Weiss made 15/18 three-pointers LY, although he was 0-2 from 40+ yards. Punter Trent Schneider is reliable (37.1 yard net LY) and don’t sleep on KR Terrence Horne who returned TWO kickoffs for TDs in just six attempts.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference slate has a pair of tough games (Wisconsin, BYU), but the good news is that both of those tilts are at home. November is going to be NASTY as they face four of their toughest games in FOUR consecutive weeks (Temple, Cincinnati, Memphis, at UCF).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at East Carolina (October 26)
This will be the Bulls third road game in a four-week span. The previous two games? BYU (tougher than a $3 steak) and Navy (have fun getting chop-blocked for three hours!). East Carolina is not going to be a FREE SQUARE this year.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 +125
Under 6.5 -165
MEGALOCKS says:
Hmm. That feels about right. We don’t see ourselves getting down for some SWEET ACTION in this market.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The Bulls earned an AP Poll ranking 104 polls after becoming a full-time, bowl-eligible FBS member in 2001. The previous record was held by Boise St (115).
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
This should be fun. There’s enough talent on offense to give anyone in the conference a run for their money, and that includes UCF. The problem is a defense that had trouble against almost everyone last year, and it remains to be seen how much improvement will be made on that side of the football. The late-season schedule is tough but they will probably be in the hunt for a division crown once the calendar flips to November.
Oh, boy. Charlie Strong and a suspect defense. The Bulls are 10-15 ATS under his tutelage but they might be good enough to make us some money on occasion this year. Just pick your spots carefully.
Want more South Florida football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.gousfbulls.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=2981&SPSID=37319&DB_OEM_ID=7700
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/south-florida/Board/South-Florida-Bulls-Message-Board-Forum-59416
https://usf.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-bullpen.8/
https://247sports.com/college/south-florida/Board/South-Florida-Bulls-Message-Board-Forum-59416
NEWS
http://www.thedailystampede.com/
http://bleacherreport.com/south-florida-bulls-football
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bulls/
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/south-florida-bulls
TWITTER
Hashtag – #BullStrong
Accounts to follow
https://twitter.com/USFFootball