USF Bulls 2025 College Football Preview
Posted June 29, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 7-6
The first half of the season was a bit of a tough ride for the Bulls as they only managed to scoop up a pair of wins (Bethune-Cookman, Southern Miss), but it’s important to point out that they lost to a fine selection of teams (Miami, ROLL TIDE, Tulane, Memphis). South Florida perked up once the schedule became more reasonable and they ended the regular season with a mark of 6-6. The Bulls outlasted San Jose St in a 5-OT Hawaii Bowl thriller (W 41-39) and concluded the year with a winning record.
USF Bulls 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Bulls ran a balanced operation LY (180 YPG rush, 227 YPG pass) and that was despite the fact that star QB Byrum Brown missed over half the year due to injury. Brown is back this season and he’s a fantastic dual-threat specimen when healthy (3,292 pass, 26 TD; 809 rush, 11 TD in 2023) and don’t forget that the Bulls still have ‘backup’ QB Bryce Archie in their back pocket (59%, 9-10 TD to INT). Anyone that got a sniff at RB last year is gone so that isn’t great, but the hope is that they can hit with a few transfer pickups such as Cartevious Norton (Charlotte, Iowa St) and Sam Franklin (Oklahoma). Any way you cut it, the RB talent level is down a notch from the 2024 group. The WR corps moves on without #1 WR Sean Atkins (79, 781, 2 TD) but they retain #2 option Keshuan Singleton (428, 15.9, 3 TD) and add someone with high upside in Tennessee transfer Chas Nimrod. The offensive line might be the best in the conference as they boast over 100 career starts and will have a dangerous running threat at QB behind them once again in 2025. They just need to cut down on the sacks, yo (36, 43 L2Y).
DEFENSE
It wasn’t a thing of beauty but the Bulls improved on a PPG basis for the second consecutive season LY (29.8, 32.2, 41.2 in 2022) and they were pretty decent vs the run (158 YPG, #6 AAC). When it came to defending the THROW GAME they gave up a lot of yards (279 YPG, #128) but weren’t horrible from an efficiency standpoint (23-12 TD to INT, 59%, #76 pass efficiency D). We expect more improvement in 2025 as the Bulls retain eight starters including their top-three (!) tacklers. The weakest level of the defense is probably up front as they lose several keg cogs in the operation but the Bulls did an admirable job in the portal trying to fill the holes. A few players to keep your eye on include DT Josh Celiscar (Texas A&M) and DE Dennard Flowers (Murray St). The LB unit is stacked with the return of #1 tackler Mac Harris (12 TFL, 6 QBH) and #3 tackler Jhalyn Shuler (7 TFL, 4 QBH) and the experienced secondary is led by FS Tavin Ward (#2 tackles). Yup, this is one of the most underrated stop units in the Group of Five.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Bulls clocked in at an impressive #17 in the Phil Steele rankings LY but we forecast a significant drop in overall performance this year as they have to replace all their key weaponry including star punter Andrew Stokes (45.5, 43.5 net), PR Sean Atkins (10.2) and KR Ta’Ron Keith (30.1, TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Have you ever seen a tougher three-game stretch to open the season? We’ll hang up and listen.
The Bulls open with a TRIFECTA OF DOOM (Boise St, at Florida, at Miami) and the best they can reasonably hope for is to go 1-2 an emerge from those games without any major injuries. The set of AAC road assignments is nasty as they’ve gotta travel to face North Texas, Memphis, and Navy in mid-November.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UAB (Nov 22)
UAB has been much better at home under the tutelage of your boy Trent Dilfer and note that the Bulls will be coming off three tough games (at Memphis, UTSA, at Navy).
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 29
Over 6.5 -105
Under 6.5 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
This is clearly a ‘7-win’ team on paper but it’s not unthinkable that they start the season at 0-3 through no fault of their own (see above). Our GUN TO THE HEAD selection is the ‘over’ but we’re taking a pass on this market for now.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Alex Golesh has been a mixed bag vs the point spread during his two-year tenure with South Florida. The Bulls are 2-0 in bowl games and 7-3 ATS in non-conference games, but just 7-9 ATS in AAC play over the L2Y.
It’s always a miracle when you hear about a mountain climber or skier surviving an avalanche, but the Bulls appear to have pulled off a bigger accomplishment by having survived the Jeff Scott era (4-26, 2020-2022).
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
It’s difficult to comprehend, but it’s a FACT CHECK TRUE that the Bulls haven’t won more than seven games since the 2017 campaign when they finished with a mark of 10-2. This year’s Bulls squad looks solid on both sides of the football but the schedule might be too much to handle. South Florida appears to be one of those teams that’ll be better than their record indicates and that means you should keep them on your radar for wagering opportunities. They’re a longshot player in the AAC and it would be fun if they stirred things up!