Utah St Aggies 2016 NCAA Football Preview
UTAH ST AGGIES
Mountain West Conference – Mountain Division
2015 Record – 6-7
ATS – 5-8
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
Mountain Division #3
Conference #6
2015 Recap
Utah St was upset by Akron in the Idaho Potato Bowl which gave the Aggies their first losing season (6-7) since 2010. They have been on quite a roll and HC Matt Wells has a 25-16 record in three seasons with Utah St. Fans have to be happy with five straight bowl appearances (3 wins) after going 14-46 (!!) the five seasons previous to their bowl run. The highlight of season was a 52-26 throttling of Boise St which was facilitated by a +7 turnover margin.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
Utah St was 9th in the Mountain West last season in total offense and hopefully a full season from QB Kent Myers will get this offense moving in the right direction. Myers will be a definite upgrade from the injured Chuckie Keeton that tried to make a go of it last season. The Aggies have a fine RB in Devante Mays who nearly hit the 1,000-yard plateau and the offensive line looks to be solid once again. We will have to keep an eye on the WR corps as nobody returns that had over 300 yards receiving (TE Wyatt Houston had 307). We are still unsure how explosive this offense can be in 2016.
DEFENSE
Utah St returns only 3 starters from a defense that was ranked 17th in the NCAA allowing just 332 yards per game. The Aggies’ defense struggled in the red zone (ranked 10th in the conference) which is one reason why they gave up over 26 points a game (NCAA rank 61st) after allowing less than TWENTY each of the previous three seasons. The front seven is a big question mark this season as the LB core loses all FOUR starters including star and 3rd round NFL draft pick Nick Vigil and his 144 tackles. Utah St has surprised recently with their ability to reload on defense but it is going to be very difficult to match last year’s ranking given the players lost and the difficult schedule that lies ahead. The good news is that the secondary appears to be solid with two starters back including CB Jalen Davis.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Aggies’ unit looks like it should be fine across the board. The return game returns both guys from last year and they also bring back their punter. The only concern may be PK Jake Thompson who takes over full time duties after hitting 3/6 FGs last season in part-time duty (long 52).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
The Aggies have their work cut out for them this season in the attempt to return to a bowl game. They lose a ton of talent on defense and have a pretty difficult schedule. Road games at USC, Boise and BYU are going to be brutal. They also have games against a loaded Aztecs team and an Air Force squad that looks like a MW Title contender.
Overall, we give the AGGIES a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season. A 25-16 record over the last three seasons is pretty impressive. However, handicappers have started to catch on to Utah St as in the same span they are only 21-20 ATS. There is too much uncertainty surrounding the defense, the big-play ability at WR as well as the lack of depth at QB for us to give them a higher rating. Utah St has won 10 games when down to their 4th QB before but there are going to be problems this season if Myers cannot stay healthy.
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https://twitter.com/sluhm (@sluhm) Steve Luhm