College Football Predictions – Utah Utes 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 10-3
You have to call it a disappointment, but we suppose that’s a compliment regarding the overall expectations of the program. The Utes had their worst win-loss record since 2013 (5-7) and they failed to win any games that really jumped off the page. Their resume? Wins over North Dakota, BYU, San Jose St, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and West Virginia (without their star QB). The good news? They lost to Stanford, USC and Washington by a combined 7 (!) points.
Can the Utes make noise in the PAC 12 South this year?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
South Division – #2
PAC 12 – #4
Utah Utes 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Utah is in really good shape at the QB position with a healthy Tyler Huntley leading the way. Huntley battled through injuries last season and still managed to toss 15 TD passes whilst rushing for another six. The running game will be productive with Zack Moss coming off a year in which he rushed for over 1,100 yards and 10 TDs while grabbing 29 receptions. The offensive line should be much more productive with four returning starters to the mix. In 2017 they rushed for 164 yards per contest (#7 PAC 12) and allowed 39 (!) sacks (#9 PAC 12). As long as we get a more Utah-like performance out of the OL, everything should work out fine. The only concern we have is a WR group that will be without their top-two from last season including 2nd Team PAC 12 honoree Darren Carrington (70-980, 14.0, 6 TD LY).
Utah averaged 29.5 PPG last year (#9 PAC 12) and we expect some improvement this season provided that they can get a full (or close to it, yo) season from Tyler Huntley.
DEFENSE
The defense certainly did their part last season, as per usual, allowing just 23.2 PPG (#3 PAC 12). However, the SACK LAKE CITY defense did not get their usual level of PENETRATION bagging just 25 sacks on the year, and that was the first time since the 2012 season that they tallied less than 30 sacks. This year they return six starters to the stop unit but will be without their top two tacklers from the 2017 squad. The good news is that they have fine size on the DL, a good-looking LB group, and a rock-solid secondary (3/4 returning starters). You can almost always count on the Utes to have solid pass defense and this year should be no exception. Things will be REALLY good if they can get their usual level of pressure on opposing QBs.
Overall we are optimistic about the defense but don’t think it will be a brick wall.
SPECIAL TEAMS
BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE.
Utah is the only team that can claim to have a Lou Groza Award winner (PK Matt Gay – 2017) and a Ray Guy Award recipient (P Mitch Wishnowsky – 2016) on their roster. Impress your PSYCHO EX-GIRLFRIEND with that trivia bomb.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Optimists will tell you that they have a pretty manageable non-conference docket (Weber St, Northern Illinois, BYU). Skeptics will tell you that they have five (!) road conference games and must face Stanford, Oregon and Washington from the PAC 12 North. We give the schedule an 8.0 for difficulty level which we are told is similar to a DOUBLE SOW COW in figure skating.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Arizona (October 12). This is a classic Stanford / USC sandwich situation complete with all the trimmings.
Season Win Total
Over – 7 -120
Under – 7 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over as we approach press time. Any team coached by Kyle Whittingham is going to be tougher than a night in jail AND we like the QB/defense/special teams.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Kyle Whittingham is 11-1 in bowl games. BOWL GAME G.O.A.T.
Utah has not captured a division title since moving to the PAC 12.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the UTES a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
There is no reason for Utah to expect anything less than a trip to the PAC 12 Championship Game. Sure, it won’t be easy, but they are a well-coached team that will be strong on offense, defense and special teams. The division is in a down phase but it will not be that way for long. Find a way to wiggle, scratch and claw your way past the Trojans on October 20th and you are off to the races.
HC Kyle Whittingham is a fantastic 70-56-1 (55.6%) vs the point spread over the past 10 years. REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY and FADE GUY may tell you that Utah is 17-9 ATS in their last 26 games and due for a pullback in terms of performance vs the point spread, but we think they will get the money more often than not.
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http://www.utahutes.com/index.aspx?path=football
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NEWS
http://www.sltrib.com/sports/utes/
http://bleacherreport.com/utah-utes-football
http://www.deseretnews.com/sports/utah-utes
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