College Football Predictions – Utah Utes 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 9-5
ATS – 7-6-1
Yes, guy.
The Utes won their first PAC-12 South title and had to show GUTS to get it done. They were without their starting QB and 1,000-yard RB down the stretch but finished strong in the regular season with wins over Oregon, Colorado, and BYU. Washington needed a defensive TD to beat them 10-3 in the PAC-12 Championship Game. They finished up the year with a rare bowl defeat at the hands of the Northwestern Wildcats.
MEGALOCKS readers were thrilled that we pegged the Utes as a VALUE PLAY to take down the PAC-12 South. Can they win all the PAC-12 marbles in 2019?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
South Division – #1
PAC 12 – #2
Utah Utes 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Utes were a lot more potent last season with their starting QB Tyler Huntley and struggled without him late in the season. They only managed 296 yards vs BYU in an 8-point win (but no cover; Congrats MEGALOCKS 109,000 STAR HOLY WAR LOCK CLUB), just 188 yards and three points vs the Huskies, and turned the ball over 6 times in the Holiday Bowl. It’s good to know that they have a capable backup in Jason Shelley but the Utes need a healthy Huntley to have a shot at competing for a conference title.
Senior RB Zack Moss rushed for almost 1,100 yards last season in just nine games and exceeded the 100-yard mark on six occasions. Backup Armand Shyne transferred to Texas Tech so there is a lack of proven depth. WR Britain Covey has led the team in receptions in each of the his two seasons (2015, 2018) but he tore the ACL and meniscus in his right knee in the PAC-12 title game. This was in addition to playing with a broken wrist for a good chunk of the season. He is a small dude but very tough and a great return man. Keep an eye on his progress during fall camp and check the timetable for his return. Overall there is a good level of experience in the WR/TE groups. We have some concern about the OL that returns just a pair of starters and loses two key contributors. Utah has allowed 71 (!) sacks over the past two years and have averaged just 4.5 and 4.1 YPC.
We expect a similar level of production as last season when they averaged 28.1 PPG. It remains to be seen if the return of former OC Andy Ludwig can coax more out of the offense.
DEFENSE
SACK LAKE CITY, baby.
Utah was 2nd in the PAC-12 in sacks last season (37) and boast one of the best defensive lines in college football. They get after the quarterback, are a rock vs the run (#5 FBS LY; 100 YPG, and boast three potential future NFL players. Utah loses their top-4 (!) tacklers including AA LB Chase Hansen who tallied 22 TFL (T5 FBS) and that is a concern. The secondary should be a top-notch unit with plenty of returning talent and experience AND they will benefit from the PENETRATION applied by the defensive line. Jaylon Johnson (CB) and Julian Blackmon (FS this year) are all-conference performers and will anchor the back of the Utah stop unit.
Utah allowed a measly 19.4 PPG (#17 FBS) last year and we forecast a similar level of success in 2019.
SPECIAL TEAMS
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…..” <Charles Dickens> <A Tale of Two Cities>
The good news first. Utah has a long history of producing excellent special teams units. The bad news? They lose both components of one of the best PK,P combos of all-time. It’s also unclear if their excellent return man Britain Covey will be ready to start the season. We are pleased to report that another Aussie punter is joining the FBS ranks in Ben Lennon. Keep an eye on the PK situation. Bottom line? We are optimistic due to their proven track record in this department BUT doubt it will be a lights-out group.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – They open with another edition of the Holy War on August 29th and BYU is going to be a tough out. Their biggest game of the regular season (?) happens in week four when they travel to face USC. The last time they beat the Trojans in Los Angeles the president of the United States was Woodrow Wilson (1916). They avoid Oregon and Stanford from the PAC-12 North but do have to travel to Washington. It’s not a bad docket overall and they finish up with three games they should be able to sweep (UCLA, at Arizona, Colorado).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Washington St (September 28)
This game comes after the big date with USC and is a potential letdown spot. Keep in mind that the Cougars have defeated the Utes four consecutive times.
Season Win Total
Over 9 -150
Under 9 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
That feels like the right number. Utah has lost at least three conference games in every season since joining the PAC 12 in 2011. They have the talent to win 10 or more games but trips to USC and Washington are going to be tough. Not to mention that they will almost certainly pull a “Utah” and lose a game they have no business losing. <just kidding> <not really>
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Utah has a sparkling 17-5 record in bowl games even after their Holiday Bowl loss to Northwestern last season. For those keeping score at home, that does not include an appearance in the Pineapple Bowl at the end of the 1946 season in which they fell by a score to 19-16 to Hawaii. That game was not sanctioned by the NCAA.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
The Utes appear to be the class of the PAC 12 South ON PAPER. Can they get it done once again? The bigger question is this: can they maintain their excellent streak of winning seasons vs Vegas? They are a fine 24-15-1 (61.5%) over the past three campaigns and 69-58-2 (54.3%) the last 10 years. Utah will be on the DEGENERATE RADAR in 2019 and we doubt the oddsmakers will overlook these guys. We almost always look to play ON the Utes and rarely bet against them. This year it may be a bit trickier to find value. Go Utes!
Want more Utah Football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.utahutes.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/utah/Board/Utes-Sports-102583/
https://utah.forums.rivals.com/forums/inside-ute-nation.10/
NEWS
http://www.sltrib.com/sports/utes/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/254/utah-utes
http://bleacherreport.com/utah-utes-football
http://www.deseretnews.com/sports/utah-utes
TWITTER
Hashtag – #GoUtes
Accounts to follow