College Football Predictions – UTEP Miners 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 1-11
ATS – 5-7
Well, at least they ended the long losing streak. Thanks, Rice!
After losing an unthinkable twenty consecutive games the Miners managed to SHOCK THE WORLD with a road victory at Rice. Sadly, that was the only time they tasted victory all year and was the only win they have booked over the last two seasons. HC Dana Dimel knew it would be a tough first season for him and there’s no doubt this rebuild will take some time. Let’s see what things look like for the upcoming season.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #6
Conference USA – #13
UTEP Miners 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Miners “improved” last year and put up 17.7 PPG (#13 C-USA) after their horrific showing in 2017 when they tallied a measly 11.8 PPG. There’s already UH OH on the horizon as projected starting QB Kai Locksley has been indefinitely suspended until more is known about the seemingly dozen of charges he currently faces. Buckle up, it might take a while to get clarity. That likely means Brandon Jones will get the call under center and he got a bit of work last season attempting 85 passes (49% completions). Their collection of RBs looks decent and features last year’s #1 RB Quardraiz Wadley (688, 5.1, 7 TD LY) but we worry about the loss of stud FB Winston Dimel who was a big help in the running game. The WR room looks like a BARREN WASTELAND at first glance and we’re skeptical about their ability to effectively MATRICULATE the ball down the field in the passing game. The best news of the day is an offensive line that has decent size and brings back four starters to the fold. Having said that, there’s a lot of improvement needed (42 sacks allowed LY, tied for last in C-USA).
They might be a bit better this season but it still has the look of an anemic offense unless a quasi-miracle occurs at QB.
DEFENSE
The Miners were pretty decent last year allowing 395 YPG (T9 C-USA) whilst getting no help from an offense that couldn’t stay on the field. It’s hard to project improvement on this side of the ball when you consider that UTEP returns just four starters and loses their top-four tacklers from last year’s squad. Oh, and they’re also changing their base alignment on defense (moving to 3-3-5). They have good size on the DL but it’s unclear at this point what kind of talent resides on the depth chart. The starting LB group undergoes a complete reload and they lose leading tackler AJ Hotchkins who was also a 1st Team C-USA performer in 2018. The secondary needs to have a bigger impact and the hope is that an influx of JC transfers will make that happen. UTEP only managed to pick off 5 (!) passes last season which was by far the fewest in the conference.
We’ll call for a similar level of performance from this year’s defense, although we do note they have a pair of high-octane offenses on the non-conference docket (Texas Tech, Nevada) and that will probably lead to a slight increase in PPG and YPG.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It’s hard to know what to expect. The unit goes into total reload mode, with the lone exception being the return of their excellent punter Mitchell Crawford. ***
*** we refuse to make a “practice makes perfect” joke
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s nasty. And this is UTEP. Their non-conference slate includes a couple of tough ones (at Texas Tech, Nevada) and they play three road games in a four-week stretch in November.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Texas Tech (September 7)
It doesn’t seem reasonable to ask the Miners to do anything other than get blown to bits in this week two match-up.
Season Win Total
Over 3 +110
Under 3 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
It’s one of our corporate policies to avoid going ‘under’ numbers this low, but it’s hard to see them snagging four wins. Then again, they end the season with New Mexico St and Rice. Taking a pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The Miners last appearance in a bowl game was the 2014 New Mexico Bowl when they were defeated by the Utah St Aggies by a score of 21-6. Their last bowl win? You have to go back to the 1967 Sun Bowl when they defeated Ole Miss (W 14-7).
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Negative
It looks like another long road ahead. We won’t be judging HC Dana Dimel in year two of a massive rebuilding project, but it’s hard to expect more than two or three wins this year.
UTEP has been LEAKING OIL for quite some time when it comes to covering the point spread. They have a dismal 48-69-5 ATS mark (41%) over the past ten years and it’s our belief they struggle once again in that department.
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