UTSA Roadrunners 2016 NCAA Football Preview

UTSA Roadrunners 2016 NCAA Football Preview
UTSA ROADRUNNERS

Conference USA

2015 Record – 3-9

ATS – 5-7

2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank

West Division #5

Conference #12

2015 Recap

Realistically, it had to happen. The Roadrunners fielded a very inexperienced team last season and it showed in the win-loss record as they finished up at 3-9. They gave some good teams a battle, including Arizona, Louisiana Tech and Colorado St, but in the end they could not manage more than three wins. Larry Coker gives way to new HC Frank Wilson who hopes to get the program moving in the right direction.

2016 Preview

OFFENSE

UTSA has some potential at QB. Dalton Sturm returns for his junior season and did a decent job in seven starts throwing for 13 TDs and rushing for 361 yards. The Roadrunners add QB Jared Johnson to the mix who transferred from SHSU where he was the Southland Conference OPOY in 2015. It is still unclear who will get the starting nod in week one.

UTSA returns two of their top three receivers from last year’s team and the passing game should be improved. Of course, they need to NOT give up 44 sacks like they did in 2015 (dead last in FBS sacks allowed per game).

The Roadrunners have 2015 leading rusher Jarveon Williams back for his senior season and he quietly put together a 1000-yard rushing campaign that included 8 TDs. UTSA appears to have some depth behind Williams. It will be up to the offensive line in large part to keep the chains moving. They return 3/5 starters but it is unclear how much improvement they will make.

DEFENSE

The unit was very inexperienced last season, and as a result, they were below average in most statistical categories. This year they lose their top-two tacklers from the 2015 team but do have more than a few talented players that new DC Pete Golding can utilize in the new defensive scheme. DE Marcus Davenport is a player to keep an eye on as he he banked 7.5 TFL last season and is poised for a breakout season. Overall, we expect the defense to be improved, but not take a huge leap forward.

SPECIAL TEAMS

All the key components return to a group that was pretty average last season, and as a result, it is just a guess in terms of how much better they will be in 2016. PK Daniel Portillo was just 1/7 on FGs from 40+ yards and that needs to get a whole lot better. UTSA led the FBS in kickoff returns in 2015 with 70 (!) and could not muster a single one over 40 yards. Hopefully they can find someone to add some explosiveness to the group.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10)          5.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Other than a tough game at Texas A&M in November, the Roadrunners’ schedule looks very favorable for a team trying to find its way. There is definitely enough talent on this team to exceed the three-win total from last season.

Overall, we give the ROADRUNNERS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season. There is a lot of upside with this team and limited downside. We worry about the offensive line, and the bumps that come with a new coaching staff, but the Roadrunners are not a team you want to bank on fading too often. Mildly interested.

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