College Football Predictions – UTSA Roadrunners 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 4-8
The Roadrunners sputtered to a 3-9 existence and ended the season in great form losing their final six games. There was hope at the mid-season mark when they rattled off three consecutive wins (Texas St, UTEP, Rice) but that glory was short-lived.
UTSA managed to win six games in each of the two previous seasons. Let’s check in with the program and see if there is hope on the horizon in 2019.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #5
Conference USA – #12
UTSA Roadrunners 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Roadrunners couldn’t get anything done on offense last year and finished DEAD LAST in the FBS in total offense (247 YPG) and next-to-last in scoring offense (14.2 YPG). The struggles can be largely attributed to the dismal QB play, and in fact, they had to start four different QBs for one reason or another. Things look a bit more promising this season with LSU transfer Lowell Narcisse being one of the favorites to bag the starting role. Senior Cordale Grundy got the most work a season ago but doesn’t appear to have the upside that Narcisse or some of the other guys bring to the table. Fall camp will ultimately decide who gets first crack at the job. The potential for the THROW GAME is an unknown given that nobody on the current roster had more than 210 yards receiving last year.
The RB unit also has a number of options but no clear-cut starter as we approach press time. Their leading rusher a season ago was BJ Daniels but he clocked in with a mere 322 yards on the ground. Sophomore Brendan Brady may have the most upside. We have hope that the offensive line can do a better job this year (87 YPG rushing, 36 sacks allowed LY) with four starters returning to the front.
The Roadrunners are on their 3rd OC in three years. We expect a bit more production (how can you not?) but they still appear to have one of the weaker offenses in the conference.
DEFENSE
It was a dramatic “transformation” as the Roadrunners went from allowing 17.0 PPG in 2017 (#8 FBS) to 31.2 PPG (#87 FBS). UTSA has played solid defense more often than not in their brief history so there is no doubt they have the potential to take a step forward. The bad news? Only five starters return and they will be without their top-four tacklers from a season ago. The good news? We like the look of a defensive line that brings back three starters and the LB group gets the addition of a pair of transfers (LSU, Virginia). Don’t forget that UTSA allowed a very respectable 160 YPG rushing (4.1 YPC) last season despite being on the field a LONG time due to their pathetic offensive performance. Definite potential here. The secondary returns a pair of senior starters at CB but need to reload at the safety position. The pass defense was sketchy a season ago (65%, 25-9 TD to INT) and it remains to be seen if they can bank some improvement in 2019.
We project these guys to move into the mid-pack of the conference in scoring defense this year with potential for more upside if they can find a way to get more PENETRATION (23 sacks LY, T7 C-USA) and pressure on the QB.
SPECIAL TEAMS
YIKES.
UTSA was blessed with solid special teams play in 2018 but undergo a total reload this year. They need to find a boatload of new specialists but you know we love ourselves some Aussie punters (anything Australian, really) and Lucas Dean may be the next fine addition to the FBS punting ranks.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – There’s a small handful of winnable games on the slate, but also tough non-conference tilts (at Baylor, Army, at Texas A&M). Their final three games are nasty C-USA match-ups (Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic, at Louisiana Tech).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Army (September 14)
It’s never fun facing one of the most efficient offensive teams in the history of the planet. They start C-USA play the following week with a visit to North Texas.
Season Win Total
Over 2.5 -185
Under 2.5 +160
MEGALOCKS says:
The ‘over’ seems like the way to go. We find it hard to believe they don’t bag at least three wins.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Roadrunners play their home games at the Alamodome which has an impressive seating capacity of 64,000 (#33 FBS).
UTSA’s lone post-season appearance was a 23-20 loss to the Lobos in the 2016 New Mexico Bowl.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
There’s reason for optimism in San Antonio BUT it’s unclear HOW MUCH optimism is realistic. They will be better on both sides of the football but it’s unlikely the offense will pack enough PUNCH to support a run to a bowl game. Of course, if the defense plays lights out, who knows? There are some nasty non-conference games on the docket but they should be able to hold their own in most of C-USA action.
The Roadrunners have booked a 16-20 ATS record (44%) during the three seasons of the Frank Wilson experience. We will likely stay clear of their games from a wagering perspective until conference play begins. It’s not unthinkable that they could be a decent bet on occasion.
Birds Up!
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NEWS
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