College Football Predictions – UTSA Roadrunners 2020 College Football Preview
August 19, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 7-5
The Roadrunners bumbled and stumbled their way to a second consecutive losing season and were only able to defeat a small handful of cupcakes along the way (Incarnate Word, UTEP, Rice, ODU). They were ineffective on both sides of the ball and struggled down the stretch allowing 36+ points in four of their final five contests.
New HC Jeff Traylor and staff will try and get things moving in a positive direction in 2020.
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #6
Conference USA – #12
UTSA Roadrunners 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Roadrunners couldn’t get much going on offense last season, particularly in the THROW GAME as they finished dead last in the conference (184 YPG). There was a virtual TURNSTILE at QB due to injuries and performance issues, but the good news is that the two main options return this year to battle for the starting gig. Lowell Narcisse and Frank Harris combined for an 11-7 TD to INT ratio LY, and recall that Narcisse displayed some good mobility (492 rushing yards, 4 TD). They also get a fine addition to the QB room with the arrival of New Mexico St transfer Josh Adkins. They have a budding star at RB in Sincere McCormick who came close to posting a 1,000-yard campaign (983, 5.6, 8 TD) as a true freshman LY. Backup Brenden Brady is also back. They’ll need a bit more production out of their TEs and WRs to get the offense working to it’s potential. TE Carlos Strickland led the team in receptions (T1) and receiving yards LY but moves on. The top-two WRs are both back in the mix including Zakhari Franklin who was the only player besides Strickland to bag more than one (!) TD reception LY. Three starters return up front including their fine LT Spencer Burford.
This is at best an average offense but we do expect improvement this season.
DEFENSE
UTSA was a disappointment on defense LY and allowed more than 30 PPG for the second consecutive season (33.9, #13 C-USA). They were BLUDGEONED by opposing ground games (198 YPG, #105 FBS) and were 2nd worst in the conference in terms of pass efficiency defense. Just five starters return for battle and they’ll be running a different alignment this season (3-3-5). Two of last season’s top-four sack leaders are back in the mix including DE/LB DeQuarius Henry but they’ll be without their #1 and #2 tacklers from a season ago. The back end of the defense features three returning starters. One piece of good news is that fact that the DL and LB units will be the strength of the stop unit AND recall that they led Conference USA in TFL/game in 2019 (!).
We’ll call for moderate improvement but they’re still a few impact players away from rating as one of the better defenses in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Hunter Duplessis didn’t get much work LY but had a good season (25/25 XP, 9/11 FG) and it’s good to have Lucas Dean back to handle the punting duties. They could use some help at KR and PR (#127 FBS, 2.2).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – 12 games locked in, baby. They have five non-conference games and seven C-USA tilts (Old Dominion a no-go). Texas St and SF Austin are winnable games but the games vs Memphis (H) and BYU (A) are nasty. All of their final four opponents are in the ‘beatable’ category. They avoid Marshall and WKU in crossover action.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing spooky noted.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Jeff Traylor gets his first shot at an FBS head coaching gig and brings experience from Texas, SMU, and Arkansas with him to San Antonio.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
There’s a lot of uncertainty at the QB position, but if they can get that big question mark sorted out, they’ll surprise some folks and have an improved season. It’s probably too much to expect a winning year in year one of the Jeff Traylor era but we feel confident they’ll be a more competitive team in 2020.
#BirdsUp !
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