College Football Predictions – Vanderbilt Commodores 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 6-7
ATS – 8-5
The regular season started well with decisive wins over MTSU and Nevada, and it ended in fine fashion with victories over Ole Miss and Tennessee. The middle part of the schedule? Not so much. They only notched one win over an FBS team during that eight-game stretch (at Arkansas) and managed to slither into bowl season with a mark of 6-6. Baylor took them down in the Texas Bowl (L 45-38) and that meant a fifth consecutive losing season under the watch of HC Derek Mason.
Let’s see if we can hope for better things in 2019.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #7
SEC – #14
Vanderbilt Commodores 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Commodores were average on offense last season posting 28.5 PPG (#10 SEC) and 411 YPG (#8 SEC) and now must move on without their all-time leading QB Kyle Shurmur who was one of the most underrated signal callers in the conference over the past few years. The starting QB role is technically still up for grabs but it will most likely be Ball St transfer Riley Neal under center when the season kicks off on August 31. Neal has been an effective starter but it remains to be seen if he can handle life in the SEC. ALL-MEGALOCKS Team member RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn is back for his senior season and is one of the best backs in the conference. Vaughn rushed for over 1,200 yards and 12 TDs a season ago at an impossible 7.9 (!) yards a pop. The THROW GAME should be effective with their top-three pass catchers coming back including 2nd Team SEC honoree WR Kalija Lipscomb (87-916, 9 TD LY) and dangerous TE Jared Pinkney (50-774, 15.5, 7 TD). The offensive line performed well in 2018 (5.0 YPC – #6 SEC; 22 sacks allowed – #5 SEC) but only return a pair of starters.
We like how they look at RB and WR. Decent QB play should allow them to perform at a similar level to last season’s offense.
DEFENSE
Vanderbilt has allowed fewer than 30 PPG in three of the last five years (26.6 LY) but may be strained to achieve that level of performance in 2019. There are only five starters returning for battle and just one of their top-five tacklers. They have to fix a run defense that has been brutal over the last two seasons (195 YPG LY, #12 SEC ’18 and ’17) and we’re not sure if improvement can be expected with only three combined returning starters in the DL and LB units. Linebacker Dimitri Moore is a good player to build around (#2 tackles LY) but they are sure to miss LB Jordan Griffin who led the Commodores in tackles (119) in 2018. More worries? Three starters from the secondary depart and the defense only managed to bag 23 sacks last year (tied for last SEC). Oh ya, and they were also last in the SEC in third-down defense in 2018 (45.6%).
We project the Commodores to allow more than the 26.6 PPG they yielded in 2019. 30 PPG feels like a reasonable expectation (2017 – 31.3).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Meh. PK Ryley Guay connected on just 13/22 three-point attempts LY and they are sure to miss their fine punter Parker Thorne (39.5 net LY). The return units could use a bit more spice.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – YIKES. How is this for a start? Georgia (!), at Purdue, and a home gig with LSU. If they don’t lose their will to live in the first two months of the year they have a shot to finish strong (Kentucky, East Tennessee St, at Tennessee).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Northern Illinois (September 28)
This game pops up right before SEC action (at Ole Miss) and the Huskies are coming in off a bye. NEVER sleep on Northern Illinois.
Season Win Total
Over 5 +115
Under 5 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under. It’s going to be tough getting to six wins looking at what’s in store for them on the slate.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Tennessee has dominated their rivalry with Vanderbilt but the Commodores have had their moments. When the rivalry first started they won 19 of the first 24 games with 3 ties. Things got nasty for Vanderbilt once the Volunteers hired Robert Neyland in 1926. Results have been favorable recently as the Commodores have won five of the last seven meetings, including three straight by a combined score of 125-71.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Negative
It could be a long season for Vanderbilt. There are talented players on the roster but we wonder about the QB situation and the ability of the defense to keep things in check. Even with the skill guys at RB and WR, it’s clear that the Commodores are not built to compete in too many shootouts. And that schedule. WHOA NELLIE.
Derek Mason has posted an ATS mark of 32-30 during his tenure in Nashville, and has only booked one losing season vs the number (2017). This feels like a team that will struggle to make bettors money, both during non-conference play and SEC action.
Nonetheless, go Vandy! Anchor Down.
Want more Vanderbilt football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.vucommodores.com/sports/m-footbl/vand-m-footbl-body.html
FORUM
http://www.secrant.com/rant/vandy-sports/
https://vanderbilt.forums.rivals.com/forums/commodore-war-room.8/
NEWS
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/238/vanderbilt-commodores
http://bleacherreport.com/vanderbilt-football
TWITTER
Hashtag – #AnchorDown
Accounts to follow