Vanderbilt Commodores 2025 College Football Preview
Posted July 20, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 9-4
WHOA, NELLIE!
Vanderbilt treated us to one of the most entertaining underdog stories in recent memory. It didn’t take long to get rolling as they defeated Virginia Tech in the season opener (W 34-27, OT), and after losing a pair of close ones vs Georgia St (!) and Missouri, they completely SHOCKED the WORLD with win over ROLL TIDE as 23-point (!) dogs. They struggled a bit down the stretch losing their final three regular season games but rediscovered their MOJO with a victory over a very good Georgia Tech team in the Birmingham Bowl.
What can the mighty Commodores do for an encore?
Vanderbilt Commodores 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Commodores milked the most out of their offensive production LY (318 YPG, #123 FBS!) thanks to the clutch performance of star QB Diego Pavia (59%, 20-4 TD to INT; 801 rush, 8 TD). Pavia sued everyone from here to Sydney, Australia and is back for another season with Vanderbilt. The top-two RBs are back for duty including Sedrick Alexander (586, 6 TD) and the THROW GAME weaponry looks decent with the return of devastating TE Eli Stowers (638, 13.0, 5 TD) and WR Junior Sherrill (411, 14.2, 3 TD). We love the continuity with the offensive weaponry but can’t help but think they’re a bit light when it comes to ‘explosiveness’. We’ll have to see how things go. Four starters are gone from LY’s offensive line but they’ve got more talent this year with the addition of over a half dozen transfers, including some very experienced specimens. Vanderbilt averaged 27.3 PPG LY (#73) and whilst we project slight improvement we don’t think they’ll get to the 30 PPG mark.
DEFENSE
The stop unit was an underrated entity LY (23 PPG, #49) but they did a much better job vs the run (141 YPG, #52) than when it came to defending the pass (#119 pass efficiency D, 68%, 24-10 TD to INT). We expect another strong season from the defense this year due in large part to the return of the entire starting LB group including Bryan Longwell (#1 tackles, 7.5 TFL) and Langston Patterson (#2 tackles, 5 TFL). The Commodores should be stout vs the run as they feature an experienced DL with good size on the interior, but we still worry about their ability to defend the THROW GAME. Randon Fontenette (#3 tackles, 8 TFL, 8 PBU) will be a force on the back end but they’ll need some other doods to step up their game.
SPECIAL TEAMS
We like the look of the kicking game quite a bit with Brock Taylor handling the FG duties (18/21 FG, 5-6 from 50+ LY) and Wash St transfer Nick Haberer taking over the punting assignment. KR Junior Sherill is a fine weapon (26.7, TD) but they’ll need to replace dangerous PR Martel Hight (14.7, TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It doesn’t look too bad, yo. There’s a REAL and SPECTACULAR possibility that they go 4-0 in non-conference play with the only true challenge being the trip to Virginia Tech. Vanderbilt has to hit the road to play ROLL TIDE and Texas (!) but we like the way the schedule winds down (Auburn, Kentucky, at Tennessee).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Oct 4 (at ROLL TIDE)
It will be the NARRATIVE STREET PLAY of the DECADE across the globe with everyone pounding the table for the Tide to exact revenge for last year’s humbling defeat, and we can’t really disagree.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 20
Over 4.5 -190
Under 4.5 +140
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
It seems much more likely than not that Vanderbilt can get to five wins with that schedule. And they certainly didn’t get any worse on paper (7-6 LY).
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Head coach Clark Lea has been brutal vs the point spread at home (8-18 ATS, 31%) but very good in the role of road underdog (12-7 ATS, 63%). DEGENERATE NATION, be advised.
The intrepid Phil Steele has Vanderbilt ranked #1 in the country on his Experience Chart. That can’t be bad.
The GREAT STATE of TENNESSEE has largely resisted the horrors of communist rule but sadly, Nashville has succumbed to the temptation just like almost all of the largest cities in America. Nashville, please don’t turn into a hideous and disgusting crime-ridden dump. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
It’s reasonable to expect a bit of a downswing for the Commodores after such as successful 2024 campaign. The problem with that theory is that the roster remains largely intact and don’t forget they left a few wins on the table last season (Georgia St, Missouri). It’s gonna be impossible to sneak up on folks this year but this clearly still has the look of a bowl team.
ANCHOR DOWN!