Virginia Cavaliers 2026 College Football Preview
Posted July 9, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 11-3
ATS – 9-5
“It would kill some men to get so close to their dream and not touch it. God, they’d consider it a tragedy.”
<Ray Kinsella> <Field of Dreams, 1989>
Virginia had the MOJO for almost the entire season. They rolled out to a mark of 7-1 and just refused to lose, winning three of those games in overtime. They stumbled against Wake Forest in November but won their final two regular season games to clinch a spot in the ACC Championship Game. The Cavs were so close to winning it all but fell to Duke in — wait for it — overtime by a score of 27-20.
The Cavs finished the year in style by taking down Missouri in the Gator Bowl for a program-record 11th win. Well done, HOOS!
Virginia Cavaliers 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (ACC):
- Scoring: 30.8 PPG (#7)
- Total Offense: 4197.9 YPG (#4)
- Rushing: 178.7 YPG (#4)
- Passing: 239.1 YPG (#11)
- Sacks Allowed: 18 (#3)
It wasn’t overwhelming, but Virginia brought a balanced attack to the table and finished the year with a 3,000-yard passer and a 1,000-yard rusher. There’s some serious retooling to do on offense as QB Chandler Morris, RB J’Mari Taylor, and leading WR Trell Harris all must be replaced.
We’re very intrigued by the free agents brought in to battle for the starting QB gig as both guys have certainly FLASHED on TAPE in the past. Beau Pribula brings over quality experience from battles with Missouri and Penn St and is the leader in the clubhouse as we approach press time. Former Pitt QB Eli Holstein is a GUNSLINGER who threw for over 3,000 yards (29-13 TD to INT) over the last two seasons with the Panthers.
The RB room must find a way to replace the production of the stellar 1-2 duo of J’Mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee, who combined for over 1,600 rushing yards and 20 TDs last year (!), and they’ll be relying heavily on transfers to get the job done. There’s quality in the room, and it’ll be interesting to see if former highly recruited specimen Peyton Lewis (Tennessee) can emerge into a legit RB1. Also keep an eye on Jakail Middlebrook (MTSU), who was an excellent dual-threat RB with the Blue Raiders (754, 4 TD; 40 receptions!, 412, 3 TD). Last year’s WR/TE room has essentially evaporated, and it’ll be a challenge to replace the lost production. We’re not thrilled with what we see on paper heading into camp as there doesn’t appear to be a true difference-maker on board.
The offensive line is the CROWN JEWEL on this side of the football as they retain three starters from last year’s fine group, and the starting lineup projects to have five senior starters with good size. Overall, the room boasts over 160 career starts.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (ACC):
- Scoring: 19.6 PPG (#2)
- Total Defense: 309.5 YPG (#3)
- Rushing Defense: 113.9 YPG (#5)
- Passing Defense: 195.6 YPG (#3)
- Sacks: 31 (#5)
The stop unit made a remarkable transformation last year and was the main reason Virginia almost won all the ACC marbles. The Hoos went from allowing 28.8 PPG and 408 YPG in 2024, to a mere 19.6 and 310 respectively in 2025. Fantastic stuff.
The DL will be taking at least a small step back this year after losing a pair of productive starters, and note the former East Carolina ARRRRR Pirate Zion Wilson was supposed to be the stud in the middle of the line, but his eligibility waiver was declined. There are still some decent bodies hanging around like DE Fisher Camac (4.5 sacks) and EDGE Nnanna Anyanwu (UTSA, 5 sacks), but the interior looks average on paper.
The biggest question on defense is the status of star LB Kam Robinson, who suffered an ACL injury last November. Our Virginia Linebacker INSIDERS believe he’ll be close to full speed for the start of the year, and that’s great news for the stop unit. However, it’s a fluid situation worth tracking during fall camp. They’ve got some acceptable depth around and behind Robinson in the middle layer, but he’s the key to it all.
The secondary returns a pair of starters and they supplemented the group nicely with experienced transfers. A few key components worth mentioning are sophomore NB Corey Costner, who’s poised for a breakout campaign, and safety Brandyn Hillman (Michigan), who brings experience and serious physicality to the back end.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Virginia was an impressive #31 in the Phil Steele special teams rankings last year, and while they lose Cam Ross, who did a great job on PR/KR, they return punter Daniel Sparks and PK Will Bettridge (24/30 FG).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Yes, guy.
Well, it appears that once again, Virginia is using its NIL funds to bribe the ACC schedule-maker. Just kidding — not really. The Hoos don’t have to worry about Miami, Clemson, or Louisville. Nice. The non-conference schedule is a breeze, with the toughest test being a neutral-site date with West by God Virginia. Oh yeah, and they only play four true road games. This whole thing is sketchier than a LOS ANGELES election.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Virginia Tech (Nov 28)
This is a HOUSE OF HORRORS for the Cavaliers as they’ve lost in each of the last twelve trips to Blacksburg. They’ve only covered the number on two occasions.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – July 9
Over 7.5 -160
Under 7.5 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
It’s hard to find five losses on that schedule, but the Hoos have to replace a lot of production from last year’s squad, and we project them to play in a lot of close games.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
UVA’s nickname “Wahoos” (or “Hoos”) comes from an old 19th-century drinking cheer — students used to shout “Wahoowa!” during toasts. A popular (but sadly false) legend later claimed it came from a fish that could out-drink humans. The official mascot is now “Cav Man,” but most fans still call the teams the Hoos or Wahoos. Trivia bunker-buster BOMBS dropping in here, yo.
Head coach Tony Elliott is 7-0 off a bye week. Cal Golden Bears: Be advised.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
That was a painfully close call for the Hoos last year, but Virginia fans have to be in good spirits as that was the first winning season since 2019, and there’s no sign of the team falling off a cliff any time soon. It’ll be interesting to see how the QB situation shakes out, but we know they’ll be able to run the football on almost anyone. That said, we’re also quite certain the defense will take at least a small step back. The schedule is very favorable, but they’ll still have plenty of dogfights along the way. We’ll call for 7–8 wins and think they fall short of making a repeat trip to the ACC title game.
Wahoowa!