College Football Predictions – Washington St Cougars 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 9-4
ATS – 7-6
The Cougars started out on SUPAH HOT FIRE winning their first six games. That streak included a 3-OT classic vs Boise St and an upset victory over USC. They got taken behind the WOODSHED by Cal (L 37-3) and gave up 58 (!) to Arizona before rebounding with quality wins over Stanford and Utah. They had a shot at making the PAC 12 title game but got blown to bits by the Huskies in the regular season finale.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
North Division – #5
PAC 12 – #11
Washington St Cougars 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
This season will truly test the ability of the Cougs to lock and load with new quarterbacks. Luke Falk is off to the NFL (Titans) and he finished his college career as Washington St’s all-time leading passer (30 TD, 3,593 yards LY). The new man for the job? It is going be a multi-armed battle during fall camp. A few of the contestants are East Carolina transfer Gardner Minshew and junior Trey Tinsley. The WR group is without their top two targets from the 2017 campaign as both Tavares Martin (70, 831, 9 TD) and Isaiah Johnson-Mack (60-555, 5 TD) have transferred from the program. They can usually cobble together a decent WR unit but this season may be a bit more challenging. The good news is that RB James Williams caught 71 (!) passes out of the backfield last year and provides a nice safety valve.
Washington St rushed for just 68 (!) yards per game last year which was 2nd worst in the FBS (Western Kentucky). They also allowed 44 sacks which is too many, even in a pass-happy offense. The OL returns just a pair of starters this season and we find it hard to see them improving much in 2018.
DEFENSE
There aren’t too many people who would guess that the #2 defense in the PAC 12 last season was none other than YOUR Washington St Cougars (323 YPG). There may be trouble on the horizon as they lose star DL Hercules Mata’afa who bagged an amazing 22.5 TFL and 6 QBH in 2017. It can’t be understated how impactful he was to the stop unit. They do return their top-2 tacklers including 1st Team PAC 12 member Jalen Thompson and six starters overall. Another positive is the return of most of the key members of a secondary that was excellent last season allowing just 11 TD passes (!) (#2 PAC 12) and 54% completions (#1 PAC 12). The question becomes, how will the departure of Hercules impact the pass defense? The Cougars will have to find a way to keep pressure on opposing QBs.
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
This is going to be a problem area. Washington St will be without their excellent PK Erik Powell (20/24 FG LY), and they were #100 in net punting last season and #116 in both KR and PR. We don’t use the analogy of a GREASE FIRE often but it may be appropriate in this situation.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not too bad. The non-conference docket should go smoothly (at Wyoming, San Jose St, E Washington), but then again, Wyoming is tougher than a $3 steak and Eastern Washington beat the Cougars in 2016 as four-TD underdogs. It will help to only have five road games, and just four after September 1st.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing noted.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 -110
Under 6.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the under as we approach press time. It’s hard to go against Mike Leach who always seems to get to bowl games, but seven wins feels like a bit of a reach.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Cougars’ only Rose Bowl triumph came back in 1915 when they dominated the pesky Brown Bruins 14-0.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 1.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the COUGARS a 1.0 ATS Value Rating (Avoid) this season.
The Cougars bring a relatively inexperienced squad into the competitive PAC 12 North this season. We understand that Mike Leach can probably coach-up a bunch of scrubs and get 6+ wins and 30 points per game, but there is too much uncertainty for our liking. There are question marks at QB, on the offensive line and on defense where they lose a phenomenal presence on the DL.
Washington St recorded a 13-13 mark vs Vegas the past two seasons despite boasting a very good win-loss record of 17-9. This feels like a year where they take a step backwards and we recommend avoiding them most weeks vs the point spread.
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WEBSITE
http://www.wsucougars.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
Free
http://scout.com/college/washington-state/Board/Football-Forum-103296
https://washingtonstate.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-cougar-lair.8/
NEWS
http://www.spokesman.com/cougs/
http://bleacherreport.com/washington-state-football
TWITTER
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