Week 0-1 Quick Takes (49 games) – College Football Predictions

Week 0-1 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions

Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.

Let’s go!

NOTE – You may get a few more text messages than you want but we have to send some that are not related to “picks” in order to keep the fascist Big Tech OVERLORDS off our back for as long as possible.

Reminder – visit https://megalocks.co/app/ if you want to receive text messages.

Note:

Season win totals will be finalized tomorrow.

Final pick (or two) for the week will come tomorrow.

ML underdogs will also come (wait for it…..) tomorrow

MEGA on the radio Friday night on SportsXRadio – details to come.

Handy index: Quick Takes (games with “official” picks in blue; leans in green)

  1. San Jose St at USC (Week 0 – Sat Aug 26)
  2. Hawaii at Vanderbilt (Week 0 – Sat Aug 26)
  3. FIU at Louisiana Tech (Week 0 – Sat Aug 26)
  4. Kent St at UCF (Week 1 – Thurs Aug 31)
  5. Ohio at San Diego St (Week 0 – Sat Aug 26)
  6. Massachusetts at New Mexico St (Week 0 – Sat Aug 26)
  7. UTEP at Jacksonville St (Week 0 – Sat Aug 26)
  8. Massachusetts at Auburn (Week 1)
  9. MTSU at ROLL TIDE (Week 1)
  10. Buffalo at Wisconsin (Week 1
  11. New Mexico at Texas A&M (Week 1)
  12. East Carolina at Michigan (Week 1)
  13. Ohio St at Indiana (Week 1)
  14. Virginia vs Tennessee (Nashville) (Week 1)
  15. Ball St at Kentucky (Week 1)
  16. Utah St at Iowa (Week 1)
  17. Central Michigan at Michigan St (Week 1 – Fri Sept 1)
  18. Texas St at Baylor (Week 1)
  19. Louisiana Tech at SMU (Week 1)
  20. Nevada at USC (Week 1)
  21. Arkansas St at Oklahoma (Week 1)
  22. Old Dominion at Virginia Tech (Week 1)
  23. Miami Ohio at Miami Florida (Week 1 – Fri Sept 1)
  24. Bowling Green at Liberty (Week 1)
  25. Nebraska at Minnesota (Week 1 – Thurs Aug 31)
  26. Texas Tech at Wyoming (Week 1)
  27. Army at ULM (Week 1)
  28. Northern Illinois at Boston College (Week 1)
  29. Georgia Tech vs Louisville (Week 1 – Friday Sept 1)
  30. Stanford at Hawaii (Week 1 – Friday Sept 1)
  31. NC State at Connecticut (Week 1 – Thurs Aug 31)
  32. Fresno St at Purdue (Week 1)
  33. Akron at Temple (Week 1)
  34. Toledo at Illinois (Week 1)
  35. Colorado at TCU (Week 1)
  36. Sam Houston St at BYU (Week 1)
  37. Rice at Texas (Week 1)
  38. Boise St at Washington (Week 1)
  39. Northwestern at Rutgers (Week 1 – Sunday Sept 3)
  40. Oregon St at San Jose St (Week 1 – Sunday Sept 3)
  41. Coastal Carolina at UCLA (Week 1)
  42. USF at Western Kentucky (Week 1)
  43. UTSA at Houston (Week 1)
  44. Washington St at Colorado St (Week 1)
  45. California at North Texas (Week 1)
  46. West Virginia at Penn St (Week 1)
  47. Clemson at Duke (Week 1 – Monday Sept 4)
  48. LSU vs Florida St (Week 1 – Sunday Sept 3)
  49. South Alabama at Tulane (Week 1)

QUICK TAKES

1. USC -30.5 San Jose St (64.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – USC -30

Vegas Implied Score – USC 47.5 San Jose St 17

Here we go! Quick Takes are on the move, yo.

The Trojans are a legitimate playoff contender and a team that we are currently viewing very intently in the futures market……Their offense will be devastating and the defense SHOULD be better given all the new transfer faces on board……but how much better will the stop unit be in 2023?…..and will USC be +23 (!) in turnover margin this year?……San Jose St doesn’t look like a Mountain West contender but they’ve still got one of the best QBs in the MW in C Cordeiro (23-6 TD to INT, 9 rush TD LY) and a very experienced offense overall….Replacing the DL studs is the biggest concern for the Spartans but the LB and DB units look ok….SJ St is lower level bowl-quality team and even tho the PR suggests a fair line in the range of 30 points we’ll take a small nibble on the dog in this spot.

Lean: San Jose St +30.5

2. Vanderbilt 17.5 Hawaii (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Vanderbilt -15

Vegas Implied Score – Vanderbilt 36.25 Hawaii 18.75

The line looks a wee bit high according to our WEEK ZERO INSIDERS but we cannot ignore how Vanderbilt PLASTERED Hawaii last season (W 63-10) as the Rainbow Warriors had no answer for the BIGGIE SIZE SEC bodies……The good news for Hawaii fans is that they played much better football in the 2nd half of 2022 and we expect improvement this year…..We’ll take a pass and focus on a possible week two TICKEE TICKEE on Hawaii when they played Stanford.

No leanage

3. Louisiana Tech -11 FIU (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana Tech -10.5

Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana Tech 34.75 FIU 23.75

This line looks about right…..We were hoping for a number below -10 but alas it wasn’t meant to be….We expect the Bulldogs to be very effective with the THROW GAME and get well into the 30s but their defense is still a question mark….Note that their #1 RB M Crosby is out and the back-up is questionable as we hit press time….FIU looks like trash BUT Mike Macintyre is a sneaky-good HC and these two teams played a 2OT game last season…..Conference game so both teams should fire their best shot…..Pass for now.

No leanage

4. UCF -37 Kent St (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCF -35

Vegas Implied Score – UCF 47.5 Kent St 10.5

Yes, guy…..We love ourselves some SWEET UCF KNIGHTS ACTION at the BOUNCE HOUSE and think they’ll be a fine addition to the Big 12…..Kent St is PURE FILTH but the line looks about right and it’s even creeping a bit higher…..Not crazy to lay this much lumber…..Knights will have to score FITTTY to cover in our estimation which is probable but not one of our favorite opinions of the week…..Knights have a yuuuge game with Boise St on deck can’t imagine you see them piling it on late……Then again be reminded that Kent St is PURE FILTH.

No leanage

5. San Diego St -2 Ohio (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – San Diego St -3

Vegas Implied Score – San Diego St 25.5 Ohio 23.5

This looks like the best game of the Week 0 card, baybee…….Ohio gets their all-Universe QB Kurtis Rourke back ** and they’ve got one of the best offenses in the Power 5 when he’s healthy….The question becomes….How will he do out west in his first game in a long time vs a stingy defense?…..SD St has question marks on the DL, OL, and WR but they always seem to find a way to stop the run…114,80,98,75,104 YPG L5Y…..QB J Mayden is a dangerous dual-threat SPECIMEN…We’ll sprinkle a small taster on the home team now that the line has dropped below 3…..For those out in Vegas which is many of you, Circa is still posting a 1.5…..2s are out there….2.5 is probably the most common number which is still fine…..Line dropped yesterday after it was announced that Rourke would indeed be starting…Interesting but useless tidbit….Ohio pounded the Aztecs 27-CACK in the 2018 Frisco Bowl.

** PRIDE of OAKVILLE, ONTARIO, CANADA

Lean – San Diego St -2

6. New Mexico St -7.5 Massachusetts (45)…………MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico St -9.5

Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico St 26.25 Massachusetts 18.75

Yes, guy.

Don’t judge but we’re excited for this game….It’ll be the first time since 2006 (!) that the ESPN main channel will be doing a game from Las Cruces!…..We think the Minutemen will be much improved and hopefully that translates into OVER 2 WINS for SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB members……They held their own vs New Mexico St LY and actually have a QB this year……..New Mexico St has the best player in the game in QB D Pavia but they lost a lot on defense from LY’s squad….We would’ve sprinkled on the dog but was hoping for double digits.

No leanage

7. UTEP pk Jacksonville St (45)…………MEGALOCKS line – UTEP -3.5

Vegas Implied Score – UTEP 22.5 Jacksonville St 22.5 (tie game, baybeee)

We welcome the Gamecocks to the FBS! Jacksonville St will play their first game as an FBS squad on Saturday and that should be a very emotional and motivating atmosphere…..That being said….We’re gonna keep this handicap relatively simple….The UTEP OL should be dominant as they hold a yuuuge size advantage to go along with a seemingly 12th year senior at QB and a deep RB corps that includes a star and some serious size…And don’t sleep on Terrance “Total Package” Burgess Jr…..The DL is the strength of the stop unit and that bodes well facing a COCKS squad that loves to run the ball….UTEP got their #1 WR T Smith back for this season (1,000+ LY) which is yuuuge and our overall player grades have eight of the best ten players on the Miners’ roster…..In addition to the motivational edge we’ll also note that UTEP has been brutal on the road under HC D Dimel but they’ve lost some close ones the L2Y (UTSA by 3, Rice by 7, North Texas by 3, FAU by 3)…..UTEP needs every win they can get if they wanna go bowling….This is most overwhelming TRENCHES EDGE of any game in week 0/1 that falls in this point spread range (0-7)….FWIW the COCKS played one FBS opponent LY and got destroyed by something called Tulsa (L 54-17)…..Weather is gonna be hot and humid which isn’t ideal for UTEP but you could also argue that it plays into their strength if they can grind out long drives….It wouldn’t shock us to see the COCKS start hot but we believe the better team prevails in the end.

Official pick – UTEP ML -115

note – you can find lines as good as -105 (Pinnacle) and there are a few -110s in Vegas

8. Auburn -39 Massachusetts (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -35

Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 46 Massachusetts 7

We’re gonna take a pass on this BAD BOY regardless of what happens in the Aug 26 UMass/New Mexico St game…..The line might be a wee bit high but this feels like a spot where the Minutemen will be happy to get some depth pieces involved……get it over with…..collect their $$….and go home….They’ve got several winnable games on their schedule and they don’t wanna get beat up too bad from a physical standpoint….Note that Auburn HC Hugh Freese is just under 60% in his career as home chalk (30-21-1).

No leanage

9. ROLL TIDE -39.5 MTSU (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -36

Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 47 MTSU 7.5

Alabama will be using multiple QBs in this affair and it’s still unclear if they have a devastating #1 WR option….They’ve also lost a lot of talent on D (yes, reload time tho)….MTSU has a decent QB who has a BAHAMAS BOWL MVP TROPHY in his closet and they’ve got a stingy defense….The intrepid PHIL STEELE rates the Blue Raiders #1 at DL,LB and DB (!) in C-USA…..Feels like a MEAT GRINDER of a game and whilst MTSU doesn’t have great history recently of covering 20+ point spreads we can see them being good enough to force a FG or too (instead of TDs) and let’s get that clock running baybeeeee…..ROLL TIDE with massive game with Texas on deck.

Lean – MTSU +39.5

10. Wisconsin -27.5 Buffalo (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -28

Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 41 Buffalo 13.5

This promises to be an exciting season for Wisconsin fans as your boy Luke Fickell comes over from Cincinnati to see what he can do in the Big Ten….They’re a very experienced team and they made a yuuuge upgrade at the QB position with the addition of former SMU Mustang Tanner Mordecai…..The change in offensive philosophy will be one of the more interesting stories in college football this season but it may take a few weeks to get things rolling….Buffalo looks to have a good but not great MAC roster and they’ve got enough talented pieces scattered here and there to put up a bit of resistance……Line looks about right from a power rating perspective.

No leanage

11. Texas A&M -38 New Mexico (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -37

Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 43.5 New Mexico 5.5

It feels like put up or SHUT UP time for the Aggies as this team comes into 2023 off a brutal 5-7 campaign….The roster is loaded with guys that are 18 STAR, 5-TOOL monsters that look great coming off the bus but they sure didn’t play well LY…..They’ve got almost every starter returning for duty and they’ve gotta do a better job of running the ball and stopping the run….Thankfully New Mexico lost their ace DC in Rocky Long and the talent level on defense resembles PURE FILTH…..The good news is that New Mexico finally looks like they might change their offensive approach from the pre-Civil War era 1800s into the 2020s with the addition of QB Dylan Hopkins (UAB) and a legitimate OC…..FWIW it’s worth the Lobos lost 34-CACK on this field back in 2021…..Line looks about right.

No leanage

12. Michigan 35.5 East Carolina (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -35

Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 43.5 East Carolina 8

Not a game we’re interested in getting involved in…..No COACH JIM for this one….Line looks about right….Michigan is one of the best teams in the country and the ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRR Pirates are in rebuild mode……Wolverines 10-4 ATS L14 home openers…..EC HC Mike Houston is 11-4 ATS as a road underdog….Feels like a 30-38 point win…..Pass.

No leanage

13. Ohio St -28 Indiana (59.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -26

Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 43.75 Indiana 15.75

The Buckeyes QB situation is one of the most interesting storylines to watch in the early weeks of the season…..We feel confident that Kyle McCord and/or Devin Brown will be more than able to lead this offense in a productive manner but losing superstar QB CJ Stroud is a killer…..Indiana feels like FADE CITY this year as they’ve got an inexperienced roster and are playing in the deadly Big Ten East…..Road team has covered seven of last eight in the series….Feels like Buckeyes or pass and we’ll take a seat for now, yo.

No leanage

14. Tennessee -28 Virginia (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -24.5

Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 43 Virginia 15

FIRE UP THOSE ENGINES, baybeeee……It’s time for the Volunteers to start lighting up the scoreboard…..But will new starting QB Joe Milton be able to dominate like Hendon Hooker did in 2022?…..They’ve still got plenty of weapons….The D looks good but not great….Tempted to play the Vols but the price is steep and it’s not clear what we should expect from the Cavs…..We’re pretty sure they’re gonna stink, but how bad will they stink?…..They’ve got a new starting QB in Tony Muskett (Monmouth) who should be decent but the weapons around him look sketchy….Note that our VIRGINIA MEDICAL TEAM INSIDERS told us that star DE/LB Chico Bennett had a procedure on his knee to remove LOOSE BODIES so he may or may not be able to go.

No leanage

15. Kentucky -26.5 Ball St (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -26.5

Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 37.5 Ball St 11

For those playing MEGALOCKS LINE BINGO…..Yup, we project this one exactly at the market price and YOU win a wonderful prize ** if you thought this was the game we would nail to the penny……We feel really good about the Cats this year and the last three times they played turds to open the season they covered each time and won 37-13, 45-10, and 38-24…..Ball St looks like they’ll have a losing record BUT we think the quality of the football they play this season will be better than the final record indicates….They’ve got a great TE duo in the THROW GAME and a defense that’s good enough to get a few stops….We were hoping for 23.5/24 to take a small taste but here we are.

** needs fact check

No leanage

16. Iowa -25 Utah St (43.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -27

Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 34.25 Utah St 9.25

There appears to be a SMIDGE of “value” with the Hawkeyes who should be able to name the score….The issue is the QB situation….Starting QB Cade McNamara is “probably” good to go but he’s been batting a minor injury…Backup QB Joey Labas is questionable …..Iowa has Iowa St on deck but they’ve covered three of the last four games before their yuuuge rivalry battle….Utah St is one of the small handful of teams in the NAUSEATING midsection of the Mountain West and they only have 9 returning starters…..They’re well-coached tho so we kinda need to see them play for a few weeks before we get a true idea of what they’re all about…..Note they won four of the last five regular season games in 2022.

No leanage

17. Michigan St -14.5 Central Michigan (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Michigan St -16.5

Vegas Implied Score – Michigan St 31.5 Central Michigan 17

We’re not high on either of these squads heading into 2023…..Michigan St has a new QB and only won five games LY…..We don’t see a lot of difference-makers on offense and the defense appears good but not great on paper….FIRE UP CHIPS are coming off a miserable 4-8 campaign and while we’re really worried about the offense we’re NOT worried about a defense that will be one of the best in the MAC…..They also have one of the most elusive QBs in the history of mankind ** in Bert Emanuel who rushed for almost 300 (!) yards vs Buffalo LY…….FIRE UP CHIPS HC Jim McElwain is 9-4 ATS as a road dog at CM and recall that they covered at Penn St and Oklahoma St in 2022……Mixed signals…..May come back to this BAD BOY.

** fact check: most likely true

No leanage

18. Baylor -27 Texas St (61)…………MEGALOCKS line – Baylor -24

Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 44 Texas St 17

Tough game to call…..Line looks a bit high but note that Texas St is undergoing a transformation and METAMORPHOSIS under new HC GJ Kinne and they’ve got a lot of new faces…Don’t wanna take a chance in week one as it may take a few weeks for them to get things sorted out…..Baylor HC Dave Aranda is 8-3 ATS as home chalk with the Bears.

No leanage

19. SMU -20 Louisiana Tech (65.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – SMU -18

Vegas Implied Score – SMU 42.75 Louisiana Tech 22.75

The Bulldogs escaped by the SKIN OF THEIR TEETH at home in week zero against a putrid FIU squad who had just four (!) yards passing…..The offense didn’t look in sync until the 2nd half but to be fair they did manage to win the yardage battle 450-182…..Note that LT is suffering a cluster of injuries at the RB spot which is an issue even for a team that loves to pass….We’re high on SMU this season and expect them to get into the 40s…..Will their defense be improved??? Feels like fav or pass but we’ll take a seat for now….Was hoping for a line around -16.5/-17.

No leanage

20. USC -38 Nevada (66)…………MEGALOCKS line – USC -36

Vegas Implied Score – USC 52 Nevada 14

WOW….yup…USC is gonna score points this season….They ripped apart the San Jose St defense and we may have already identified the MEGALOCKS SPECIAL TEAMS FREAK OF THE YEAR in WR Zachariah Branch who looked devastating on returns (KR TD)…..The defense didn’t look great (uh oh) but Nevada is not a team to worry about in terms of offensive firepower…..”35″ was the go-number and 38 is just too rich.

No leanage

21. Oklahoma -35 Arkansas St (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -31

Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 46.75 Arkansas St 11.75

It’s not our proudest moment but we’ll take a small taste of the road puppy…..Oklahoma was 6-7 LY and whilst the RB room looks deep we’re still not sure about the star power in the WR unit…..They’ve added a lot of new faces to a defense that was pretty bad LY and it’s hard to believe they’ll be great in week one…..Ark St should be a bit stingier on defense (secondary improvement, big beefy transfer dood at DT) and they’ve got a pair of good WRs…..QB JT Shrout and backup Jaxon Dailey don’t inspire a ton of confidence but they’ll put together a few decent drives….Their ROBOT PK Dominic Zvada should ensure they get at least 3 points every time they’re inside the 35 yard line……Red Wolves HC Butch Jones is 8-4 as a road puppy with Ark St which includes a cover at Ohio St in week 2 LY and a SU win over Kansas St during the 2020 PLANDEMIC season…You may be able to find a rogue 35.5 out there but they’re getting gobbled up.

Lean: Arkansas St +35

22. Virginia Tech -15.5 Old Dominion (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -18

Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 32 Old Dominion 16.5

We expect much better things from Virginia Tech this season as they’ve got a pretty good defense, a much-improved WR corps (J Lane, A Jennings), and a strong kicking game. Grant Wells isn’t our favorite QB but he’ll get the nod on Saturday night and the Hokies will be out to avenge LY’s loss at Old Dominion in which they outgained the Monarchs 333-249 but puked all over themselves…..An 8pm home opener will give the fans plenty of time to get LUBED UP and we expect the new-look Monarchs to struggle mightily this season….They only return three starters on defense and four on offense whilst losing their top-two skill position doods (by far) in RB B Watson and WR A Jennings (now with Virginia Tech!) and their starting QB. We project a quick start and 17+ point win.

Official pick: Virginia Tech -15.5 -111 (sent 2:58 pm EST Aug 28)

23. Miami Florida -17 Miami Ohio (45.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Florida -18.5

Vegas Implied Score – Miami Florida 31.25 Miami Ohio 14.25

If you’ve ever jumped off a four-story building and landed on a BIKE WITH NO SEAT you know what it’s like to cheer for the Hurricanes…..This looks like a decent spot for them tho even with Texas A&M on deck….They tower athletically over the Redhawks and will be able to put up points even if QB Tyler Van Dyke is limited (Q)…..Their OL is vastly improved and the rushing attack will be able to set the tempo and allow them to take deep shots….Miami Ohio doesn’t have anything on offense that’ll test the Miami defense….they’re a solid MAC squad but more of a grinding team without the capability of a team like MTSU LY who hit a ton of big plays…..Miami Ohio recently provided some bulletin board material (“we are the real Miami”) if you believe in that sort of thing but we think it’s just fun and won’t matter once the game starts…..FWIW….Miami Ohio doesn’t take the MONEY GAMES seriously….lost the last three openers to BIG BOYS by 24,35,24.

Lean – Miami Florida -17

24. Liberty -9.5 Bowling Green (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -8.5

Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 29.75 Bowling Green 20.25

Not a game we’re gonna get involved with as both squads are on our WORLD FAMOUS DOWNGRADE LIST…..Liberty lost a lot from LY’s team and will be without their best OL who’s OFY due to injury….The Falcons could be better than we think as they added a P5 (!) transfer QB and they should be able to run the ball a little bit…..Line looks fair enough.

No leanage

25. Minnesota -7 Nebraska (43)…………MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -7

Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 25 Nebraska 18

We aren’t particularly high on either team heading into the season but the Gophers certainly have the recent proven track record and they did the best job they could replacing star RB M Ibrahim with S Tyler (W Michigan)…..The defense has been lights out the L2Y and we didn’t see that coming so maybe they just are really good?…..New HC Matt Rhule has a significant rebuilding project on his hands and the roster still needs a lot of work on both sides of the ball….Road team is 6-1 ATS L7 in the series….Rhule is 18-8 ATS as a road dog (Temple, Baylor)…..Prefer Minnesota but haven’t gotten to the window yet….Note the wind gusts could be up to 30mph (see weather report on blog page).

No leanage

26. Texas Tech -14 Wyoming (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -15.5

Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 32.75 Wyoming 18.75

The Red Raiders are a definite player for the 2nd spot in the Big 12 (Texas) and their offense should be downright SICK with 11 returning starters and talent all over the place…..The OL is very experienced and we expect them to overmatch Wyoming’s stop unit over the span of four Q….The Pokes play solid D but they don’t face teams like this very often (gave up 30+ six times LY) and note that even tho they went 7-6 LY ** they were outscored by average score of 24-21……they were outgained by 9 (!) of 12 FBS opponents in 2022….Wyoming has ZERO passing game and their top-two RBs are OUT for this one…..Pokes HC Craig Bohl is 3-7 ATS L10 vs P5 teams and whilst it can be tough on opposing teams playing at high altitude….note that Lubbock is around 3500 feet above sea level (i.e. not New Orleans) so hopefully the impact will not be as significant as it would be for other teams…who knows….it’s well out from game day but the wind forecast is favorable (12-15 mph).

** MEGALOCKS SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB’s only loser in 2022 (9-1); Wyoming ‘under’ bit the dust.

Official play: Texas Tech -14 -107 <sent 2:25pm EST Aug 29>

27. Army -10 ULM (47)…………MEGALOCKS line – Army -9

Vegas Implied Score – Army 28.5 ULM 18.5

Army will be looking to improve upon LY’s 6-6 mark when they travel to face the Warhawks…..They’ll be featuring a new offense (hopefully, better than Navy’s “new” offense) and have 8 returning starters on D….ULM is lacking in overall talent on both sides of the football and will also be breaking in a new QB…..Note that as stinky as the Warhawks have been they’ve been pretty good at home under HC Terry Bowden (7-4 home, 1-12 away)….Army won 48-24 LY at home…..Line looks about right.

No leanage

28. Boston College -9 Northern Illinois (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boston College -9.5

Vegas Implied Score – Boston College 30 Northern Illinois 21

The Eagles had a nightmare of a time on offense LY thanks to an impossible number of injuries on the OL….The QB/OL/RB situation looks good coming into the season and it didn’t hurt to pick up WR R O’Keefe from UCF….Northern Illinois gets their QB back healthy and R Lombardi JUST WINS GAMES….Their defense is a bit sketchy but at least the DL looks decent…..Gut says BC but you cannot ignore the Huskies’ ATS record as a road puppy under HC Thomas Hammock (12-4)(!)…..Line looks about right….We highly doubt it will happen (1-2% shot) but will hope for a +10 sometime this week to take a small taste of the dog….Pass for now.

No leanage

29. Louisville -7.5 Georgia Tech (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – LUA-VUH -8

Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 28 Georgia Tech 20.5

This one’s a bit of a puzzler as the Cards have a new ace HC in Jeff Brohm who just led Purdue to a Big Ten West title….Their THROW GAME weaponry is a bit of an unknown but QB Jack Plummer is a dood that can put up 3,000 yards in this system….The Cards D lost a lot of sack production but return 7 starters to a D that allowed 19 PPG LY….Georgia Tech found a way to win five games LY despite getting outscored by an averaged of 28-17 (!) over 12 games….We expect the D to be pretty good but we’re not sure what they’re all about on offense…..GT was 5-1 ATS as a dog under Brent Key LY…..Line looks about right…..We’ll skip the pre-flop betting menu and wait for an in-game opportunity of some kind.

No leanage

30. Stanford -3.5 Hawaii (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Stanford -4

Vegas Implied Score – Stanford 31 Hawaii 27.5

This line has plummeted after the market took note of Hawaii’s good showing at Vanderbilt on Saturday where they outgained the Commodores 391-302 (-2 t/o margin) in a 35-28 loss and ‘-3.5’ is probably at the right number given that nobody on the planet TRULY has an idea of what to expect from Stanford….They’re gonna be bad, but how bad whilst they be?……Hawaii is playing on a short week and traveling back from Tennessee but they’re familiar with the annual crazy travel schedule…..Hawaii held Vanderbilt to 44 (!) yards rushing which should mean that Stanford won’t have an easy time moving the ball…..Gonna be breezy with a chance of showers….Fun fact….Stanford hasn’t scored more than 31 points vs an FBS team since week three of the 2021 (!) season.

Lean – Stanford Team Total under 31

<note you should be able to find 31.5; we’ve even seen 32.5 with extra juice>

31. NC State -14.5 Connecticut (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – NC State -14

Vegas Implied Score – NC State 30.5 Connecticut 16

The line has come down a wee bit and it still looks like it’s worth taking a small taste of the underdog HUSKIES….They’re tough at home and recall that they took down Fresno, BC, and Liberty on their home field (23,7,15 point dogs)….They’ve got a new QB that should improve the THROW GAME, a solid rushing attack that’ll chew some clock, and a stingy D….NC St has a new QB in Brennan Armstrong who was a star in 2021 but mediocre LY…..The WR/TE weapons appear average overall and the defense loses five of the six top tacklers…..Note that the Pack have the IRISH on deck…..Big weeknight game for HUSKY NATION….Pack ripped UConn apart 42-10 LY in Raleigh early in the season when UConn was still trying to figure things out.

Lean – UConn +14.5

32. Purdue 3.5 Fresno St (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Purdue -3

Vegas Implied Score – Purdue 25.5 Fresno St 22

Tough to feel really good about either side….Fresno has a new QB and will be without a 1,000-yd RB and 1,000-yd WR from LY…..They D will still be stingy and HC Jeff Tedford is 8-3 ATS as a road dog with Fresno St….Purdue has a new HC, new QB, depleted WR corps and just 5 RS on defense….Slight preference to the dog and you just might see the Bulldogs in our ML underdog list on Friday…..Fun fact from the intrepid MARC LAWRENCE….Fresno St is the only FBS team to start 1-4 and win 10 games…..they turned the trick in 2022 en route to a MW title.

No leanage

33. Temple -10 Akron (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Temple -10

Vegas Implied Score – Temple 33.25 Akron 22.25

Not a game we’ll be getting involved with as we have both squads on our “buy” list to start the season and the line looks DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE….Akron played well at the end of LY and enter year two of the Joe Moorhead experience…..They’ve got a fine QB and good WRs….The D needs to continue to get better….Temple has 9 RS on D and a 3,000-yard QB and they’ll be gunning for a bowl bid this year.

No leanage

34. Illinois -9 Toledo (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -10

Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 27.5 Toledo 18.5

Illinois is one of the more interesting teams heading into 2023 as recall they were right in the thick of the Big Ten West hunt LY and they almost beat Michigan at the BIG HOUSE if it weren’t for the cheating refs **…They swap a phenomenal game-manager at QB for a dood with more upside in L Altmyer but will be without all-Universe RB C Brown (1600+ rush LY)….The defense will still be very stingy but note that their former DC is off to Purdue (HC)…..Toledo is the class of the MAC but HC Jason Candle is just 13-17 ATS in non-conf games and 4-10 ATS as a road dog….They’ve got a very experienced team and this is a low total implying that Toledo has a good shot to cover if they can do anything on offense…..Illinois is 2-0 ATS in home openers under HC Bielema…..Prefer the fav but taking a pass for now.

** just kidding. not really.

No leanage

35. TCU -20.5 Colorado (63.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – TCU -21

Vegas Implied Score – TCU 42 Colorado 21.5

COACH PRIME, baybeee…….The Buffaloes have an almost entirely new roster and it’ll be interesting to see how quickly new HC Deion Sanders can mold these guys into a decent team….It’s gonna take more than a year tho even with former star FCS QB S Sanders in the mix…..TCU has some reloading to do on offense with just three returning starters….The Horned Frogs were 4-1 ATS as home chalk LY….Hard to play either side when you consider that Colorado has dozens and dozens of new players…..Line seems reasonable.

No leanage

36. BYU -19 Sam Houston St (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – BYU -23

Vegas Implied Score – BYU 32.75 Sam Houston St 13.75

Welcome to the FBS you WACKY Sam Houston St BEARKATS!….These guys played rock solid defense in the FCS last year but the offense was PURE FILTH…..We’ll take a small taste of the home team based simply on the fact that the line looks short and this is a tough spot for a team to make their FBS debut….BYU is gonna have some problems with the Big 12 schedule this year but we think this should be a cakewalk.

Lean – BYU -19

37. Texas -35 Rice (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -32

Vegas Implied Score – Texas 47 Rice 12

Texas has big plans for the 2023 season as they’re yuuuge favorites to take down the Big 12 as we approach press time….Their offense will be absolutely devastating and defense has several very talented specimens….Rice has a skilled veteran QB in JT Daniels but not too many skill position doods that’ll put fear into the Longhorns’ stop unit….Line might be slithering into OVERBOUGHT territory but it feels like Rice’s best shot to make money for their backers is with a nasty BACK DOOR cover…..Texas has ROLL TIDE on deck.

No leanage

38. Washington -14 Boise St (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington -13

Vegas Implied Score – Washington 36.75 Boise St 22.25

This tilt has one of the more interesting GAME WITHIN A GAME match-ups as star QB M Penix (4,641, 31-8 TD to INT LY) and his elite WR corps goes up against a Boise St secondary that was excellent vs the pass LY…..They lost a few great players on the back end but they still boast a strong defense overall and they’ve got a good ground game and mobile QB….Boise appears lacking at the WR position due to injuries so they’ll try and grind this BAD BOY down to the NUB and see if they can work some magic in the 4Q…..Tough to call at this market price but TRENDS GUY will point out that Washington is 5-0 ATS vs Boise and their HC K DeBoer is 8-0 ATS in his coaching career vs non-conference opponents….Slight preference to the home team but Boise has a long history of finding ways of hanging around vs more talented teams.

No leanage

39. Rutgers -6.5 Northwestern (39.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Rutgers -7

Vegas Implied Score – Rutgers 23 Northwestern 16.5

Long gone are the days when a coaching staff can watch by freshmen be thrown in ACTIVE VOLCANOES because “dude, it’s totally hilarious”….and so Northwestern has a new HC to go along with an 11-game losing streak…There are a lot of new faces and it’s hard to know what to expect from them early on….We rate Rutgers as a “buy” in terms of ATS prospects but don’t wanna dip our toe in the water when they are laying a TD….Will prefer to see them as underdogs.

No leanage

40. Oregon St -16.5 San Jose St (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -15

Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 35.75 San Jose St 19.25

San Jose St put up a valiant effort vs USC in game one thanks to the play of QB C Cordeiro but were no match for the potent Trojans (L 56-28)….The Spartans are 9-6-1 ATS as a home dog under HC B Brennan but they’ll be challenged to get many stops vs one of the best rushing attacks in the PAC 12…..Market price looks about right….Beavers supporters could have some tense moments late as the Spartans will fight until the final whistle….No strong opinion.

No leanage

41. UCLA -14.5 Coastal Carolina (64.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -16

Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 39.5 Coastal Carolina 25.5

We feel pretty good about the Bruins’ chances to cover on Saturday as they’ll bring in a defense that features 9 RS and a fine DL….It won’t be easy to replace DTR at QB but Chase Garbers has shown flashes in limited action and they’ve got a highly-regarding true freshman waiting in the wings….Coastal Carolina brings back all-Universe QB G McCall for one more ride but their defense is disgusting and should get rolled in this one….They allowed 32 PPG LY and 47,45,53 in their final three contests of 2022…..Oh ya, and their ace HC is off to Liberty.

Lean – UCLA -14 -120

<Note you can get -118 at Pinnacle and -120 should be easy to find>

42. Western Kentucky -11.5 South Florida (70.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -12.5

Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 41 South Florida 29.5

Don’t plan on wading into these waters as of press time but it feels like WKU or nothing….They’ve got a potent offense with a star QB in Austin Reed (4,744, 40 TD LY) but the stop unit returns just four starters and they’re definitely gonna be down a notch from 2022…USF is in rebuild mode with a new HC but they’ve got a veteran QB and experienced D….although that may not be a good thing (41 PPG LY)……Preference to the home team but haven’t hit the button yet.

No leanage

43. UTSA -2 Houston (60)…………MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -2.5

Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 31 Houston 29

These two teams opened the 2022 campaign with a BARNBURNER as Houston slithered past UTSA in 3-OT by a count of 37-35…..UTSA is off back-to-back C-USA titles and now compete in the AAC….Their excellent QB F Harris is back for a 7th ** season and the offense should be able to cook once again although it’ll be tough to replace #1 WR Z Franklin (1,136. 15 TD LY) and note that LY’s #3 WR D Clark (741, 8 TD) might not be able to go on Saturday…Houston is making the jump to the Big 12 this year and it’s almost certainly gonna be a rough transition….This is a game they can win but they’ll need to do it with a new starting QB (veteran D Smith) and with a defense that loses their top-five tacklers…..This will almost certainly come down to one possession sometime in the 4Q….or maybe later????

** fact check: you betcha.

No leanage

44. Washington St -11 Colorado St (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -10

Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 33.5 Colorado St 22.5

We’ll take at least a small taste of the home dog as we’ve got the Rams as a “buy” to start the season from an ATS view…..HC Jay Norvell did fine work with Nevada and he’s 9-3 ATS over his career as a home dog…They’ve got a legit #1WR and #1RB to go along with a QB that completed an impossible 72% of his passes LY…..The D is ok and the secondary should match up well with the Coogs’ THROW GAME…..Wash St has a fine QB in Cam Ward but they lost their top-four (!) WRs and three of their top-four tacklers on defense….They’ve got a date with Wisconsin on deck.

Lean – Colorado St +11 (+11 still available at several shops in Vegas, +10.5 is most popular on-line but you can dig deep to get a +11)

Update – Official pick Colorado St +10.5 -109 <sent 6:34pm EST Sept 1)

45. California -6.5 North Texas (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – California -6

Vegas Implied Score – California 30.25 North Texas 23.75

The Bears haven’t booked a winning season since 2019 (8-5) and they desperately need to get off a good start….They’ve got an experienced team with a solid D and star RB but it’s unclear what they have at QB in Sam Jackson…..North Texas has the offense to make this a game with a loaded RB corps, a promising WR group, and 7 RS on defense…..They did however allow 32 PPG LY and they’ve got a new QB in STONE Earle who has limited experience…..Cal HC Justin Wilcox is just 2-6 ATS as a road fav with Cal…..Will wait to see if a +7 pops up later today (doubt it) otherwise will take a pass on the spread…..Mean Green a definite candidate for ML dogs to be posted later today.

No leanage

46. Penn St -20.5 West Virginia (49.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -21

Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 36 West Virginia 15.5

“WE ARE” have a legit shot at the Big Ten East and relies heavily upon highly-touted QB D Allar, the MAN with the GOLDEN ARM…..They’ve got one of the best RB duos in the nation in N Singleton and K Allen and a nasty defense….HC James Franklin has done a decent job as home chalk (27-21-3 ATS) with Penn St….Don’t forget that this used to be a yuuuuge rivalry back in the day…..WV has a yuuuge and talented OL, a deep group of RBs, and a slippery QB in G Greene….Expect lots of rushing and the clock to go TICK TICK TICK…..The legendary Marc Lawrence points out that WV HC Neal Brown is 10-2 ATS in his career as a dog of 14+ points.

Lean – West By God Virginia +20.5

<you might be able to get a +21 before kickoff; it may be worth waiting, who knows?>

47. Clemson -13 Duke (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -11.5

Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 34.5 Duke 21.5

The Tigers are itching to get back onto the field and prove that the rumors of their demise have been greatly exaggerated….It must be tough being Clemson when you “only” win an ACC title and 11 games but are critcized for being underachievers by some…..New starting QB C Klubnik showed some potential in last season’s work but he only threw 100 passes (2-3 TD to INT)…..Clemson’s defense will be one of the best in the nation this season and it’s gonna be hard for Duke to move the ball despite having a ton of returning production on offense including QB R Leonard who’s one of the most underrated QBs in college football (20-6 TD to INT, 13 rush TD LY)……We have the slightest of LEANAGES to the home dog but think the best play might be the Duke TT under as we have a hard time seeing them get past 21.5 points….As efficient as the offense was LY they basically played nobody with a defense worth more than a HOLE OF A DONUT in 2022.

Lean – Duke TT under 21.5

<Note: there are lots of 21.5s out there, we’ve seen a 22.5 with high juice, we’ve seen the odd 20.5….Shop around for the best number if you wanna play along, yo>

48. LSU 2.5 Florida St (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – LSU -2

Vegas Implied Score – LSU 29.5 Florida St 27

We’ve spent hours and hours looking at this BAD BOY since the early summer months and just can’t find an edge on the side or the total…..We are SUPER PUMPED to see two of the best teams in college football go head-to-head once again and LSU will be looking to avenge LY’s 24-23 loss….a game in which a late rally fell short…..Both teams have excellent mobile QBs and dangerous weaponry at RB/WR/TE…..LSU probably has the slight edge on defense but Florida St QB J Travis has phenomenal ability to make something out of nothing…..Both head coaches are in the tier of their profession……Game is at a “neutral” site in Orlando….Total looks about right…..47 points last year but these offenses have too many weapons to make us feel great about grabbing an ‘under’ ticket…..We’ll take a seat pregame and hope for a good opportunity with in-game wagering.

No leanage

49. Tulane -6 South Alabama (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -4

Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 29 South Alabama 23

We’ve got a preference for the road dog in this match-up as we rate them as the best team in the FUN BELT and they are strong across the board….solid veteran QB, 1,000-yard RB, two stud WRs, rock solid defense…..Tulane provided college football fans with a lot of thrills last season taking down the AAC title and beating USC in a COTTON BOWL THRILLER that will be talked about for millennia to come……They’ve lost a lot of talent tho including their top-five tacklers, their all-GALAXY RB in T Spears (1,581 rush, 19 TD LY), and their top-two WRs…..It’s never easy to go against Tulane HC W Fritz who’s 21-10 ATS as home chalk but feel this will be a one-score game.

Lean – South Alabama +6

<Note: there are still a few 6.5s out there, one major shop has +6.5 -115 which we think is a good move>

UPDATE – Official pick South Alabama + -107 <sent 11:28am EST Sept 1>

Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting a smaller wager..

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved. (no bet)

Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.