Notre Dame vs Navy
posted August 22
The Game
It’s GAME DAY. Believe it.
The Fighting Irish roll into Dublin off a somewhat disappointing 2022 campaign in which they finished 9-4 whilst finding ways to lose to Marshall and Stanford at home. Navy booked their 3rd straight losing season in 2022 and said goodbye to long-time HC Ken Niumatalolo. It wasn’t so long ago that Navy had a solid football program and the hope is that 2023 gets them moving in the right direction.
Who will win the Aer Lingus Classic? Will the stadium be filled with scantily-clad IRISH HOTTIES? Will Callum and Finn be totally bombed after the first quarter?
Let the fun begin in DUBLIN, IRELAND, baybeeee.
The Details
Notre Dame -20.5 Navy (50.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Notre Dame -21
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Notre Dame 35.5 Navy 15
Notre Dame offense vs Navy defense
The Irish made the biggest score of the transfer portal season by snagging star QB Sam Hartman who was one of the best signal callers in the ACC during his time with Wake Forest. They’re loaded at RB but there’s still a question about the overall quality of the WR/TE group after the departure of stud TE M Mayer (#2 NFL DC) and note that no WR booked more than 400 receiving yards in 2022. The OL looks to be in good shape and they’ll be up against a Navy run defense that allowed just 89 (!) YPG on the ground in 2022 (# 3 FBS). Nine starters are back on defense but they’ll be without their best player and 1st Team AAC LB John Marshall who led the team in sacks, TFL, QBH, and tackles last season. We think the defense takes a step back this year and note that as good as Navy’s defense was in 2022 they allowed 30+ to good offenses on many occasions (Memphis, SMU, Houston, Notre Dame). We project the Irish to score about 35 points which is in line with market expectations.
Navy offense vs Notre Dame defense
RUH ROH. Navy’s vaunted rushing attack has been HOT TRASH by their standards over the L3Y and now they’ve decided to be like the COOL KIDS and throw the ball more this year. The Midshipmen don’t appear to have a QB on the roster that can MATRICULATE the ball down the field effectively via the THROW GAME as both Tai Lavatai and Xavier Arline are ineffective passers. Who knows, maybe unknown specimen sophomore Blake Horvath provides a spark? In any event, they’ll have to do most of the damage on the ground and recall that they ran for 255 vs ND in last season’s game so at least there’s a bit of hope. We expect Notre Dame to have a stingy defense this year (8 RS) and Navy will have to work for everything they get. They’ll hit a big play or two but we don’t think that’ll be enough to keep it close.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
It’s worth noting that Notre Dame appeared HOME and COOLED LY vs Navy (led 35-13) but they almost SHAT the BED and held on to win 35-32……The weather might provide us with some sprinkles but we don’t anticipate it having an impact on the game…..For the record our AVIVA STADIUM INSIDERS believe that the pitch is uncovered and the seats are covered…..Navy has lost their last three season openers by a combined score of 118-17….Yikes.
Summary
These two teams played a close one last season but the Irish stopped playing in the 2nd half. Note that the previous three meetings between these two squads before LY were all BLOODBATHS (28,32,22 point wins). We prefer the Notre Dame betting options but haven’t decided how to play it yet.
We’ll have a recommended LEANAGE by the end of the week. UPDATE BELOW.
Conclusion
No LEANAGE (stay tuned as per above)
UPDATE: 6pm Friday
Still no LEANAGE.
We’ve done way too much digging on this bad boy and can’t recommend a lean on the side or total. ARGH. For complete and total degenerates you might wanna consider waiting to see if Notre Dame gets up 7-CACK and then take Navy at a better line in-game (e.g. +24.5, +27.5, +28.5).
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.