Week “0” QUICK TAKES (Aug 27) – College Football Predictions
Here are QUICK TAKES for games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up.
Let’s go!
Handy index: Quick Takes
- Connecticut at Utah St
- Vanderbilt at Hawaii
- Nevada at New Mexico St
- Wyoming at Illinois
- Charlotte at Florida Atlantic
- North Texas at UTEP
QUICK TAKES
Utah St -27.5 Connecticut (60.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Utah St -21.5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah St 44 Connecticut 16.5
This number comes in quite a bit higher than our projection but it’s really difficult to know HOW BAD the Huskies will be in 2022…..It’s not unthinkable that they’re a TD worse than we think….We like the hire of Jim Mora but the roster looks pretty gross…For those keeping score at home – note the UConn roster changes – WR C Ross likely OFY….PK McFadden OFY….Kevon Jones is gone (one of best defensive players)….also DC Spanos on leave…..Utah St lost a ton of production at WR as well as on defense but they still have an excellent QB in Logan Bonner (36-12 TD to INT LY) and note that HC Blake Anderson is 23-14 ATS in his career in the role of home chalk (62%)….We project a 20-30 point lead early 4th Q and then who knows what happens after that, yo?
No leanage
Vanderbilt -7.5 Hawaii (53.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Vanderbilt -7
Vegas Implied Score – Vanderbilt 30.5 Hawaii 23
Have to lean to the Commodores in this LATE NIGHT GET OUT OF DEBT DEGENERATE SPECIAL….Hawaii has a new HC and will be transitioning back to the run and shoot…but with inexperienced QBs and WRs…..They only have two starters back on D…Vanderbilt has to have this game circled as one of the few winnable ones on the docket and have a pair of decent QBs, a deep RB group, and average OL….Not crazy about the defense but they get Hawaii in week one which is a plus…..Hawaii playing in a cozy 9,000 seat stadium for this one….Not sure what that means…Fans will be closer to the action and maybe that’s better than playing in a 2/3 empty yuuge stadium?….Hawaii 16-16-2 ATS as home dogs L10Y…..Hawaii will need to be crisp and efficient on offense and can’t see that week one.
Lean – Vanderbilt -7 -125
Nevada -9 New Mexico St (50.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Nevada -8
Vegas Implied Score – Nevada 29.5 New Mexico St 20.5
Yup, this one is not exactly a “classic” but we always cheer for the Aggies to get wins whenever they can…..They brought in veteran HC Jerry Kill and that was a yuuuge move probably in line with their move to C-USA in 2023….This season will be all about developing a tough culture with the hope that adding talent over time will lead to bigger things….We can’t lie – their offense looks disgusting but the defense won’t be bad and they have at least three legit defenders….Nevada has the potential to be a dumpster fire given the departure and graduation of so many players and their HC…..No star QB….No throw game weapons….reloaded D…..but they ARE facing New Mexico ST….hmmmmm.
Lean – Under 50.5
Illinois -11 Wyoming (44)………..MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -11
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 27.5 Wyoming 16.5
It’s not your brain playing tricks on you…..Illinois is actually favored over an FBS team by 11 points…..And it probably makes sense….Wyoming lost both QBs, their starting RB, stud WR, and all-Universe defender Chad Muma….They’ll play smart and tough and try to grind their way into the 4th Q and see what happens….Illinois was better than we expected in year one under Bret Bielema LY (5-7) and even SHOCKED the WORLD win a road win over Penn St….They return a 1,000 yard RB, their top two WRs, and add QB Tommy DeVito from Syracuse….he’s nothing special but it never hurts to have a crafty veteran under center…..The D was ok vs the run LY and shouldn’t have to worry much at all about the Wyoming THROW GAME…..Liked it a lot more at -10 but you look away from your screen for six seconds and it’s -11 or worse everywhere…..Just a light sprinkle for now.
Lean – Illinois -11
Florida Atlantic -7.5 Charlotte (58.5)………..MEGALOCKS line – Florida Atlantic -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida Atlantic 33 Charlotte 25.5
Things get HOT and HEAVY right off the bat in Conference USA with an interesting match-up….Charlotte folded like a CHEAP SUIT last year and lost five of their last six games….FAU pulled a “Taggart” and lost their final four games and didn’t make a bowl game….Both offenses should be able to do damage in this one as they feature solid veteran QBs and all the TRIMMINGS at WR and RB….Both squads gave up tons of passing yards LY and Charlotte allowed over 200+ per game on the ground….We feel better about the Owls D but do they have a pass rush?…..Lean to the dog in this one as it feels like the 49ers can keep this one close BUT we do note that HC Will Healy has been brutal in the point spread role of road dog (4-8, 33%) in three seasons with Charlotte.
Lean – Charlotte +7.5
UTEP pk North Texas (55)………..MEGALOCKS line – UTEP -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – UTEP 27.5 North Texas 27.5
This is a sneaky-important game in Conference USA as both teams have dreams of SHOCKING the WORLD in 2022…..UTEP brings a solid D into this one particularly up front where they return four really good starters….MLB Breon Hayward is dealing with an eligibility issue as we hit press time….QB Gavin Hardison booked a mediocre 19-13 TD to INT mark LY and will be without star WR Jacob Cowing this season….Look for UTEP to work the clock and the ground game….North Texas played better D down the stretch (24,14,17,7,23 L5G) and they’ve got a good DC…QB A Aune is not to be trusted (9-9 TD to INT) and we may see multiple QBs…The Mean Green will pound that ground game and note that they’ve averaged 233,230 YPG on the ground L2Y…..LY’s game was a 20-17 SNOT BUBBLER.
Official play – Under 55 -105 <sent Aug 24 5:35pm EST>
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.