Florida at Utah
posted August 28
The Game
Yes, guy.
What a TREAT we have on Thursday night at the Gators travel to SACK LAKE CITY to battle the mighty Utah Utes. The Gators won last year’s edition in dramatic fashion (W 29-26) and Utah will be out for sweet revenge. The Utes have high ambitions for the campaign whilst Florida will be looking to get the rotten taste of 2022 out of their collective mouths.
Let’s do itttttt!
The Details
Utah -6.5 Florida (45.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Utah -8.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Utah 26 Florida 19.5
Utah offense vs Florida defense
The line has been moving all over the place based on the health of starting QB C Rising who’s a devastating dual-threat QB and a tremendous leader. He’s listed as “probable” for this one but even if he plays he’ll definitely be limited in terms of mobility. Utah rushed for 230 yards LY vs Florida and they’ve got a great set of RBs and one of the best OLs in the PAC 12. Star TE B Kuithe is working his way back from injury and the hope is that the WR corps can do a bit more damage than expected in this one. Florida has some serious BEEF on the interior of the DL and have talented CBs but we worry about the pass rush, and let’s face it, they weren’t very good overall on defense in 2022. Utah’s backup QBs have been getting a lot of work in preparation for this game and we trust their excellent HC to have a good game plan.
Florida offense vs Utah defense
The Gators went bananas LY vs Utah thanks to the play of QB A Richardson who’s now in the NFL. New QB G Mertz is a bit of a question mark in our eyes as the weapons at WR/TE appear sketchy outside of R Pearsall. The battle that’ll decide the game is the Florida RBs/revamped OL vs the Utah run defense. Florida has an excellent group of RBs but they’ll be facing an excellent run D without the threat of a running QB (or a potent THROW GAME). We expect the Utes to hold up much better vs the run this time around but it’s not gonna be a walk in the park. It wouldn’t shock us to see Mertz turn the ball over a couple of times.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Florida HC Billy Napier is 11-3-1 ATS as a road dog in his career (3-0 with Florida)……Utah is 26-2 (!) at home since 2018……Altitude will almost certainly be a factor in the 2nd half for the Gators as Rice-Eccles Stadium is 4,640 feet above sea level and note that MEGALOCKS ALTITUDE PHYSIOLOGY INSIDERS have noted that the impact is more noteworthy in warmer temps (Aug vs Nov) **.
** Fact check: Science, baybee. This is in stark contrast to the “science” that convinced people masks could stop a virus, especially whilst driving alone in your car.
Summary
We feel good about the Utes chances to win by at least seven points but the QB situation is a bit risky. It’s quite possible that Rising is held out on gameday and if that’s the case you might see late STEAM sending the line back down to the 4-5 range. Whatever happens on the QB front we forecast a solid team effort and point spread cover from Utah.
Conclusion
Lean: Utah -6.5
(Note – you can find anything from -6 to -7 out there….Shop around, yo)
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.