Week 1 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week. Point spreads and totals are consensus lines at time of posting unless otherwise noted.
Let’s go!
Handy index: Quick Takes
- Ball St at Tennessee (Thursday)
- Temple at Duke (Friday)
- Central Michigan at Oklahoma St (Thursday)
- New Mexico St at Minnesota (Thursday) (UPDATED AUG 31- LEAN ADDED)
- Colorado St at Michigan
- Utah St at ROLL TIDE
- Massachusetts at Tulane
- Western Kentucky at Hawaii
- Illinois at Indiana (Friday)
- TCU at Colorado (Friday)
- Bowling Green at UCLA
- ULM at Texas
- Army at Coastal Carolina
- Texas St at Nevada
- Louisiana Tech at Missouri (Thursday)
- Western Michigan at Michigan St (Friday)
- West Virginia at Pittsburgh (Thursday)
- MTSU at James Madison
- Rice at USC
- UTEP at Oklahoma
- Buffalo at Maryland
- Rutgers at Boston College
- Clemson vs Georgia Tech (Monday)
- Penn St at Purdue (Thursday)
- FAU at Ohio
- Boise St at Oregon St
- Utah at Florida
- Kent St at Washington
- Memphis at Mississippi St
- Tulsa at Wyoming
- Virginia Tech at Old Dominion (Friday)
- NC State at East Carolina
- Arizona at San Diego St
- Miami Ohio at Kentucky
- Liberty at Southern Miss
- North Carolina at Appalachian St
- Cincinnati at Arkansas
- BYU at South Florida
- Troy at Ole Miss
- Houston at UTSA
- Georgia St at South Carolina
- SMU at North Texas
- Louisville at Syracuse
QUICK TAKES
Tennessee -33 Ball St (68) …….MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -31
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Tennessee -34.1 *
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 50.50 Ball St 17.50
It’s a game that we’re gonna avoid from a wagering standpoint as the Vols can name their score but they also have a yuuuge revenge game with Pitt on deck…..Point spread looks about right….Can’t wait to see our pal Hendon Hooker LIGHT IT UP on his way to a Heisman Trophy **……Ball St is the weakest team in the MAC West on paper and shouldn’t put up much resistance….Note that they have their MAC opener on deck (Broncos) so they may empty the bench 2nd half.
No leanage
*Based on the average of several reputable power ratings
**Fact check: Could be true
Duke -7 Temple (52) …….MEGALOCKS line – Duke -8
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Duke -8.4
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 29.50 Temple 22.50
One of the easier games of the week to avoid….Duke is in rebuild mode with new HC Mike Elko and will be lucky to win more than a couple of games this year….They’ve got a new QB, questionable skill position talent, and holes on defense….Temple has ANOTHER new HC in Stan Drayton (first timer) and recall that the Owls lost their last seven games of the 2021 season, all in blowout fashion….Line looks about right, it all comes down to “How bad is Temple?” and there’s really no way of knowing at this point.
No leanage
Oklahoma St -21 Central Michigan (58) …….MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -21
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Oklahoma St -22.3
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 39.50 Central Michigan 18.50
For the YOUNG SPARKIES out there…..you may wanna check out the last play when these two teams hooked up in Stillwater in 2016….yup, the ol’ HAIL-AND-LATERAL miracle that gave FIRE UP CHIPS a 30-27 upset win….Thanks for coming…..start the cars…..Have a good night!….Oklahoma St is still a contender in the wide-open Big 12 but it’ll be interesting to see how far their defense falls off after losing so much talent as well as their ace DC….Central Michigan boasts one of the best RBs in college football in Lew Nichols (1,848, 16 TD, 40 receptions LY) and a dangerous QB….We don’t love the look of the defense but think they can grind out enough successful drives to run clock and keep the Pokes under 40 points.
Lean – Oklahoma St team total under 39.5 (implied) (play down to 38.5)
Minnesota -36 New Mexico St (53) …….MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -35
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 44.5 New Mexico St 8.5
Yup, the Aggies looked pretty awful vs Nevada but they’ll get better as the season goes along and we hope that they start Gavin Frakes at QB athough it probably won’t matter as the Gophers totally outclass the visitors….HC Jerry Kill makes his return to Big Ten country….Gophers with two TOMATO CANS to start the season (W Illinois next)….look for them to try and get the THROW GAME going….Line looks about right.
No leanage
<updated – lean NM St +37 -116> <Aug 31 update>
Michigan -27.5 Colorado St (58.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -30
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 43 Colorado St 15.5
The Colorado St Rams bring in about 79 ** former Nevada Wolfpack players and their former HC Jay Norvell who did a really good job with the pack AND made degenerates some cold hard cash (33-26 ATS)…..They’ve got talented skill position players and some nice pieces on D….Michigan will start Cade McNarmara at QB….Offense is gonna be goooood this year but it remains to be seen how the D will look after losing so many talented doods…..Line looks about right although our best guess is that the line will creep up a bit by game time (barring weather issues) so if you like GO BLUE grab it now…. 27/27.5 out there as we hit press time…..Tough to know how the zillions of new players on the Rams will gel in week one but keep your eye on these guys.
No leanage
** fact check: almost true
ROLL TIDE -41.5 Utah St (62.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -38
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 52 Utah St 10.5
Yes, guy….It’s time to get our first glimpse of ROLL TIDE….The D will be sick but we’re a little worried about the state of the THROW GAME weapons….Utah St didn’t look great vs UConn but they have a very good QB and enough weapons to move the ball a few times and maybe even score a TD….Line looks a titch high…..Bama with Texas on deck.
Lean – Utah St +41.5
Tulane -29 Massachussetts (59) …….MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -25
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 44 Massachusetts 15
We have pretty high hopes for Tulane to be quite a bit better this year but we also think that UMass will be a wee bit tougher…..Another case of a line being high than we anticipated…..Could be a slaughter but will wait and watch the Green Wave one time.
No leanage
Western Kentucky -16.5 Hawaii (66.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -14
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 41.5 Hawaii 25
Hawaii gets a chance to redeem themselves after getting SPLATTERED by YOUR Vanderbilt Commodores (L 62-10)….Hawaii looked ok in the first half but got worn out and were outscored 35-CACK in the 3Q….Also note Vandy had two def TD…..WK didn’t look amazing vs Austin Peay but should be able to win by double digits…..Line a bit rich for our tastes but it’s probably fav or pass.
No leanage
Indiana -3 Illinois (46.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -1
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 24.75 Illinois 21.75
The Illini were WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE in game one and steamrolled an impotent Wyoming team….They had 260 yds rushing in that game and should be able to have some success vs an average run D….Indiana breaking in a new QB and THROW GAME weapons…Illini have allowed more than 24 points once in their last 10 games.
Lean – Indiana team total under 24.75 (implied) (play to 24)
TCU -13.5 Colorado (55.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – TCU -13
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 34.5 Colorado 21
TCU is a darkhorse contender in the wide-open Big 12 as they’ve got a loaded offense and a new HC in Sonny Dykes that knows what to do with that kind of firepower….Colorado is one of the worst Power 5 teams in the nation with a brutal QB situation….TCU might come out flat and Buffs HC Karl Dorrell is 10-2 ATS as a home pup over his career but we just can’t see them staying within single digits….Would’ve liked to have seen a lower number but the market has this one right….we think.
Lean – TCU -13.5
UCLA -24.5 Bowling Green (57.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -24
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 41 Bowling Green 16.5
Tough game to get a read upon…UCLA bringing back a ton of new faces and only have a pair of returning starters on D….Bowling Green is a very experienced squad that should be one of the most improved teams in the country….We still worry about their QB play but they can play D and note that they SHOCKED the WORLD last year by taking down Minnesota on the road as 31 point dogs (!)…BG #1 RB T Stewart OFY but they are deep at RB.
No leanage
Texas -38.5 ULM (64.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Texas -35
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 51.5 ULM 13
Easy game to pass for us….51-13 seems completely logical as the potent Horns can name the score….Note tho that they have ROLL TIDE on deck and the Warhawks are well-coached….ULM could be primed to deliver SWEET BACKDOOR ACTION with a late meaningless TD….We’ll take a seat for this one, yo.
No leanage
Coastal Carolina -2.5 Army (53.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Coastal Carolina -3
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 28 Army 25.5
Think of the sharpest thing imaginable….and then imagine that this line is 209 times sharper….We were hoping for something close to 7….but alas….reality is a CRUEL MISTRESS….The Chants only return 7 (!) starters and just three on D….lose a ton of weapons on offense….In comes the nasty and disciplined Army Black Knights….They always play solid D and have multiple QBs that can GIT ER DONE….Feels like a toss-up and MEGALOCKS members still have nightmares over last year’s week one 88 STAR SUDDEN ADULT DEATH SYNDROME POWER LOCK loser when Army hammered Georgia St 43-10.
No leanage
Nevada pick Texas St (52) …….MEGALOCKS line – Nevada -2.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Nevada 26 Texas St 26
Speaking of “sharp”….although we won’t know for about a week….Mob consultants gave out the word to HAMMER Texas St and we are down to a pick em….Hard to argue after watching Nevada this week and they were the beneficiary of +5 in turnovers vs NMex St….Hopefully Nate “Baby Giraffe” Cox will start at QB but you should never underestimate the ability of coaches to be idiots….Texas St is just 9-27 under HC Jake Spavital who has more lives than SCOTT FROST….Feels like a game to watch and learn.
No leanage
Missouri -19.5 Louisiana Tech (60.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -21
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 40 Louisiana Tech 20.5
Ok….it feels like PUT UP or SHUT UP time for Missouri HC Eli Drinkwitz as the Tigers have finished 5-5 and 6-7 in his two seasons….The D looks to be improved on paper – at least up front – but they’ll be working in a new starting QB in Brady Cook (good bowl game), new THROW GAME weapons, and will be without all-UNIVERSE dual-purpose RB T Badie….LTech moves on from the Skip Holtz era and passing guru HC Sonny Cumbie will eventually get the THROW GAME clicking….week one tho?…Hard to say as we have no idea what they have at QB….The D returns 8 starters and note that the Bulldogs gave Miss St (1 pt loss) and NC St (7 pt loss) yuuuge scares LY…..Think Missouri can steamroll on the ground and probably win in a comfortable fashion but note that Eli is 1-5 ATS as home chalk and they have a bigger game with Kansas St on deck….Like the home fav just can’t go biggie size….Probably gets to 20+ sooner than later.
Lean – Missouri -19.5
Michigan St -22 Western Michigan (54) …….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan St -25
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan St 38 Western Michigan 16
Sparty gets a pair of TOMATO CANS to start the season (Akron next) and it’ll be interesting to see how they fair this year after winning 11 (!) games in 2021….They lose star RB K Walker but reload with talented former Colorado Buffalo Jarek Broussard….They return 9 starters on D….This looks like a down year for Western Michigan and we worry about FRESH FISH at QB playing a tough Big Ten D in week 1….The D might be decent in MAC play but things appear to point to a Michigan St blowout….Price ain’t cheap but not insanely high….WM took down Pitt LY but – as noted – this team is much less-seasoned.
Lean – Michigan St -22
Pittsburgh -7.5 West Virginia (51) …….MEGALOCKS line – Pittsburgh -10
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Pittsburgh 29.25 West Virginia 21.75
Not going to overthink the room on this bad boy…..Some folks seem to think that Pitt is gonna be like Army this year but they still have a fine QB in Kedon Slovis and West Virginia also has a gunslinger in JT Daniels….Both teams’ defensive weakness is the secondary….WV OL should be able to hold up at least a bit vs a nasty Pitt DL….Line might drop a bit lower who the hell knows it was at 55ish at one point…..Will snag a small taste of over 51 and see what happens….Weather will be fine FWIW…..Kinda like Pitt to cover but the BACKYARD BRAWL is an underrated HATE FEST so you just never know.
Lean – Pitt/WV over 51
James Madison -6 MTSU (58) …….MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -3.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 32 MTSU 26
Easy game for us to take a pass….James Madison will be JACKED to play their first game as an FBS school…and more importantly….get into the MEGALOCKS ORBIT…..MTSU is trash but the line looks a bit high to us…Then again…JM is a tough read with so many new faces.
No leanage
USC -32.5 Rice (61.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – USC -34.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – USC 47 Rice 14.5
Yes, guy….Can we FINALLY get USC rolling?….If anyone can do it, you gotta think that Lincoln Riley is the man….and he’s got lots of weapons at his disposal…..a virtual TREASURE CHEST….Rice is PURE FILTH but note that USC has Stanford on deck and Rice has been known to take the air out of the ball and end the game as soon as possible…..Might wanna grab this before it gets to 35 if you like the Trojans.
No leanage
Oklahoma -31 UTEP (57) …….MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -31
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 44 UTEP 13
Great minds think alike….we’ve got this BAD BOY lined right at market as we approach press time….UTEP didn’t look that great vs NT and couldn’t run the ball or get any heat on the QB…Tough to see them giving the Sooners any trouble but the Miners are still a low-end bowl team and 30+ is a tough number to lay in week one….Oklahoma D is a mystery and UTEP QB Hardison’s LASER ROCKET ARM is capable of burning them a couple of times.
No leanage
Maryland -24.5 Buffalo (63.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -21.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 44 Buffalo 19.5
We’re pretty high on the Terps this season and expect them to handle the Bulls with ease….But the number is getting a bit rich….Look for BABY TUA at QB to light up the Buffalo secondary and the Bulls don’t have the offense to keep up….They do, however have the ability to run the ball and they’ve added a lot of transfer talent on D…..Rutgers transfer Cole Snyder gets the call at QB for Buffalo…..Gut says Terps, head says to pass at any number over 24.
No leanage
Boston College -7 Rutgers (48) …….MEGALOCKS line – Boston College -9.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Boston College 27.5 Rutgers 20.5
The Eagles are going to be interesting to watch on offense this year as they have a fine QB in Phil Jurkovec and good skill position doods BUT they also have a completely rebuilt OL….8 starters are back on defense and they allowed just 22 PPG in 2021….Rutgers is scrappy but boast a roster that is sorely lacking in talent….They were pretty good on D LY vs teams in BC’s weight class….Scarlet Knights HC Greg Schiano is 28-17-1 ATS in the role of road dog but hard to see them getting much done on offense.
Lean under 48
Clemson -22 Georgia Tech (49) …….MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -21
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – TBD
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 35.5 Georgia Tech 13.5
Jackets’ head coach Geoff Collins is on a SMOKING HOT SEAT…..He’s 9-25 as head coach with GT and a miserable 33% (!) ATS…..QB Jeff Sims has shown potential but he’s not surrounded with much skill position talent and the D returns just three starters….The last time we saw Clemson in action they were taking care of Iowa St in the Cheez-It Bowl…..a MEGALOCKS 900 STAR SAFE AND EFFECTIVE BOWL BONANZA LOCK winner……They’ll be a focused bunch after LY’s sub-par season but note that they break in a new DC and probably still have QB issues….Also recall that GT gave the Tigers all they could handle LY and lost in a close SNOT BUBBLER by a score of 14-8.
No leanage
Penn St -3 Purdue (53) …….MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -4
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Penn St -4.4
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 28 Purdue 25
Penn St starts out with a Big Ten road game for the third straight season and recall that last year they took down the Badgers in Madison (W 16-10)….We lean with the road team as they have more overall talent across the roster, particularly given another solid recruiting class AND the departure of so many Purdue THROW GAME weapons….not to mention star DE G Karlaftis….We like the crafty Penn St QB Sean Clifford and he’s got a good pair of WRs….The big concern is getting that running game as it’s been a long time between drinks in terms of booking a 100-yard rusher….Thankfully the Purdue D is good but not great and we think Penn St can handle a one-dimensional offense…..Gonna go against CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY.
Lean – Penn St -3 -116 <-110 to -120 widely available)
FAU -4 Ohio (49.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – FAU -4
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – FAU -5.9
Vegas Implied Score – FAU 26.75 Ohio 22.75
The Owls looked pretty good vs Charlotte in week zero action (W 43-13) and dominated the stat sheet (482-279 total yards) despite falling behind 7-CACK early….They should be able to score enough for a cover as their team speed and QB play is not a good match for a mid-level MAC team…..We like Ohio to be better this season but they are more suited to MACtion…..The Owls have a game under their belt but teams without a game played (Ohio) in this situation have been a pretty decent bet ATS over the last number of seasons….Still think the team speed will be too much for the BOBS when it’s all said and done.
Lean – FAU -4
Oregon St -3 Boise St (57) …….MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -1
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Oregon St -0.3
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 30 Oregon St 27
Looks like a good spot to take a shot with the dog….Boise’s D is one of the best in the Mountain West, they’ve good a solid 4th year starting QB, a healthy George Holani at RB, and strength on the OL and DL…..not to mention a ROBOT FG kicker and a 9-3 ATS mark as road underdogs L10Y….Oregon St is a decent squad but are fairly one dimensional on offense with the run game and QB Chance Nolan had a MEH 19-10 TD to INT mark LY…..Oregon St HC Jonathan Smith is 6-1 ATS as a home fav but those games were mostly vs turds…..Beavers just one winning season since 2013.
Official play: Boise St +3 -117 <sent 11:03am Aug 31>
Utah -3 Florida (51) …….MEGALOCKS line – Utah -3
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Utah -5.4
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 27 Florida 24
This looks to be our PEE INTO THE WIND game of the week as Florida won’t be a popular pick….We’ll just lay down some small potatoes….But we like the overall team speed, the fact that while they aren’t deep – a reasonable facsimile of this team lost to ROLL TIDE by just two points in the SWAMP LY and destroyed Tennessee before the season went off the rails….They dropped dead like a room full of triple-boosted DEATH JABBED marathon runners….QB A Richardson is a difference-maker and one of the only stadiums we actually pay attention to as much as CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY is the SWAMP….It’s a tough venue and nobody on Utah’s roster has faced anything like this….Washington 2020 during SCAMDEMIC year there were 14 people there….Washington 2019?….Oregon 2017 half the team wasn’t even born **….More upside with Florida than Utah….yes if Utah plays like Utah and it all goes to plan they win and cover…..Let’s see.
** fact check: apparent sarcasm
Lean – Florida +3
Washington -23 Kent St (60) …….MEGALOCKS line – Washington -23.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Washington -23.8
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 41.5 Kent St 18.5
Not a bad spot to take at least a small play on the home fav….We’re pretty high on Washington and new QB M Penix gives them quality veteran stability and upside….YUUUUGE head coach upgrade in Kalen Deboer and we think the WR group and D will be much better….Kent St moves on without star QB D Crum and this feels like a slaughter waiting to happen….Line not cheap tho….Still like it under 24.
Lean – Washington -23
Mississippi St -16 Memphis (57) …….MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -18
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Mississippi St -14.8
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 36.5 Memphis 20.5
Ya, we’re higher than the market on Miss St as noted in our MEDIA APPEARANCES so far this year (Taylor Swift says hi **)….Miss St lost the game LY at Memphis but outgained the Tigers 468-246 and we have the Dawgs BETTER this year whilst having the Tigers rated WORSE…Miss St QB Will Rogers is a STUD (4,700+ yards LY) and Memphis is gonna have major issues running vs the Miss St defense….You always have to consider the “Leach Factor” as he’s blown 21 point leads with 9 seconds remaining on the clock multiple times *** but we think the Bulldogs get a big win here….Would have liked 14 or better but, oh well.
** fact check: MEGA, you wish
*** fact check: wouldn’t doubt it
Lean – Mississippi St -16
Tulsa -6.5 Wyoming (44) …….MEGALOCKS line – Tulsa -5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Tulsa -7.1
Vegas Implied Score – Tulsa 25.25 Wyoming 18.75
Not a game we can get involved with….Wyoming appears to be PURE FILTH and MEGALOCKS season win total club members can only hope for more carnage (courtesy of Tulsa) this week…Tulsa is the more talented bunch but they lose their ace DC and strange things happen when you travel to Laramie…..Line looks about right.
No leanage
Virginia Tech -7 Old Dominion (48) …….MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -8.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Virginia Tech -10.9
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 27.5 Old Dominion 20.5
We’re definitely high on ODU in terms of building on the TORRID late season run in 2021…..They won their final five (!) regular season games before losing in their bowl game to Tulsa….They also played well LY vs UTEP and Marshall losing both road games by 7 points…..Line just looks a bit low to us based on our numbers and the market consensus even tho we don’t have much confidence at all in a quasi-rebuilding Hokies team with more than a few holes and a new HC….Monarchs will definitely be a motivated home team and note that they SHOCKED the WORLD by beating VT in 2018 by a score of 49-35 as 27 point dogs….yup, that happened….want more value and line is sharp.
No leanage
NC State -11.5 East Carolina (51.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – NC State -13
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – NC State -13.8
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 31.5 East Carolina 20
Similar situation to the game above where our gut says the dog is live but the numbers suggest that the fav is the play (?)….It’s the Pack DEFENSE that has us excited more so than the offense but it can’t hurt to have a stud QB in Devin Leary who posted an impossible 35-5 TD to INT mark LY…..EC looks like a “play on” team as they have a potent offense and a defense that should be “average” by AAC standards….NC St 11-10 ATS as road fav under D Doeren….EC 5-6 ATS as a home dog under Mike Houston….Would bite on the fav at -9.5 and the dog at +14 and here we are in non-man’s land.
No leanage
San Diego St -6 Arizona (46.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – San Diego St -6.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – San Diego St -7.1
Vegas Implied Score – San Diego St 26.25 Arizona 20.25
The Aztecs open up their new home stadium and….hold onto your hats….they have a QB that might actually not STINK….Former VT Hokie Braxton Burmeister had some good moments in Blacksburg and he boasts good mobility….The Aztecs always have a solid D but lose all-Universe defender Cameron Thomas…..Arizona will be improved this season and also boast a QB upgrade as Wash St COOG Jayden De Laura will start under center….The overall depth of the roster is enhanced but we’d want more than a TD to take a stab on a dog thats 1-16 SU L2Y…..We’re also still smarting from the MEGALOCKS 666 STAR DEATH BOOSTER SEIZURE LOCK loser last year when these two teams hooked up….SD St won 38-14.
No leanage
Kentucky -16 Miami Ohio (54) …….MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -17.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Kentucky -18.9
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 35 Miami Ohio 19
We’d want 20 points or more to take a stab with a MAC road team traveling to one of the best teams in the SEC East…..even tho the Cats will be without star RB C Rodriguez (susp) and their devastating WR W Robinson (grad) who booked an impossible 104 receptions in 2021….The Redhawks are the best team in the MAC East on paper but have questions on defense and are gonna have trouble moving the ball…..Note that Kentucky has Florida (!) on deck.
No leanage
Liberty -3.5 Southern Miss (49.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -6
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Liberty -5.7
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 26.5 Southern Miss 23
Looks like there’s some theoretical line value with the road team and we’ll take a small taste for now….Southern Miss looks like a team to keep on your radar as they return 16 starters and surely won’t have to use 10 different players under center this year…..right?…..RIGHT?…..Southern Miss is 6-16 SU L2Y and veteran HC Hugh Freeze is 26-11 with the Flames and 23-14 ATS…they lose dynamic QB Malik Willis but as talented as he was, he also led the NCAA in BRAIN FARTS ** and was sacked 51 times (b/up sacked once)…..Veteran Charlie Brewer is a fine replacement.
** fact check: likely
Lean – Liberty -3 -120 (-120 to -125 widely available)
North Carolina -1 Appalachian St (56) …….MEGALOCKS line – UNC -2.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – UNC -3.7
Vegas Implied Score – UNC 28.5 Appalachian St 27.5
The Tar Heels struggled more than expected with an FCS team last week that was without 25 players including their best defensive player….but we did like the look of new QB Drake Maye who’s got some wheels and they appear to be loaded at the skill positions again with an NFL WR and a bunch of speedy RBs…..Can’t justify a play on App St on pure numbers but we like the G5 vs Power 5 scenario which often gives the dog extra jooooce when they are at home, speaking of which, App St is 11-1 at home under HC Clark and 23-2 since 2018….App St rushing attack gonna be a HOT HANDFUL.
Lean – App St +1
Arkansas -6.5 Cincinnati (52) …….MEGALOCKS line – Arkansas -7
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Arkansas -4.4
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas 29.25 Cincinnati 22.75
WOO PIG!!….It appears we’re a bit lower than market on the Bearcats…..yes their HC is chiseled out of GRANITE and they made the playoff last year but they lost a TON of talent on defense as well as veteran QB D Ridder who brought a lot of savvy and mobility to the table….QB Ben Bryant had a 3,000 yd season in the MAC LY but that was the MAC and he didn’t get much playing time whilst previously with the Bearcats….WOO PIG should be able to do what they do best on the ground and recall that Cincy got pulverized by a weaker ROLL TIDE rushing attack LY, although to be fair, WOO PIG doesn’t have the THROW GAME weapons that Alabama did and Cincy will be able to pay more attention to the run…..Underrated home field advantage and think that this is a tough spot for Cincinnati to open…..Must note tho that HC Luke Fickell is 9-0 ATS as a dog of 3-9 points and 15-8 ATS in non-conf action….thanks to the great Marc Lawrence for those tidbits….Gonna roll with the team that will win the rushing stats BIGLY.
Lean – WOO PIG -6 -113
BYU -12 South Florida (58) …….MEGALOCKS line – BYU -11
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – BYU -13.8
Vegas Implied Score – BYU 35 South Florida 23
BYU has booked a 21-4 (!) record over the L2Y and bring back a TON of experience this season but we like the dog in this spot….maybe we’re too high on South Florida but….1) South Florida is also a VERY experienced team with 19 (!) returning starters and a LOT of transfer portal additions including QB G Bohanon who was 10-2 as a starter with Baylor whilst winning a few big games for the Bears….2) The Bulls were down 28-6 (!) at half LY in Provo with a much-less talented team but they kept fighting and ended up losing 35-27 (23 pt dogs)….3) It’s gonna be unbelievably hot and humid and check that DEW POINT, yo **….BYU hasn’t been great in the state of Florida going back decades and note that they beat BYU on this field 27-23 back in 2019 ***….4) It’s not like BYU hasn’t crapped the bed ATS away from home under the Sitake regime….recall that they beat Arizona 24-16 LY in their opener….5) So Flo has one of the best special teams units in college football….PK S Shrader is LEGIT and KR Brian Battie had not one….not two….but THREE KO return TD in 2021.
** just kidding. not really.
*** interesting, but useless tidbit
Official play: South Florida +12 -110 <sent Sept 1 5:20pm>
Ole Miss -21.5 Troy (57.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss 18
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Ole Miss -20.3
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 39.5 Troy 18
The MEGALOCKS MAN CRUSH Matt Corral has left the building and it’ll be up to former USC Trojan Jaxson Dart and Luke Altmyer to run the offense…we love the rushing attack but not sure the THROW GAME will be up to recent standards….and they lost their top-two tacklers on D…Troy is a solid Sun Belt team and have a shot to SHOCK the WORLD in the West division….We lean with the road dog in this spot.
Lean – Troy +21.5
Houston -4.5 UTSA (62) …….MEGALOCKS line – Houston -6.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – Houston -6.3
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 33.25 UTSA 28.75
The COOGS are a top contender for AAC spoils and definitely have a shot to be the G5 rep in a major bowl game……but first things first….They’ve gotta face the reigning C-USA champs who went 12-2 LY….MEEP MEEP loses star RB S McCormick (1,479, 15 TD) but bring back stud QB Frank Harris, a great set of THROW GAME weapons and their top-three tacklers…Houston will be without their star RB A McCaskill (16 TD LY) but QB Clayton Tune (30 TD) and WR Tank Dell 1,329, 12 TD) are gonna give MEEP MEEP a lot of problems….and the Houston D should be very stout….Lean to Houston based on the numbers but CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY tells us that the dome is a tough place to play and HC J Traylor is 9-3 ATS as a dog.
Lean – Houston -4.5
South Carolina -12.5 Georgia St (57) …….MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -14
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – South Carolina -10.9
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 34.75 Georgia St 22.25
We’d need a number at -10 to play the fav and +14 to take the dog….and here we are so will take a pass…..the COCKS got a massive QB upgrade by snagging Spencer Rattler and he’s got a few good THROW GAME weapons and a solid OL surrounding him….we aren’t crazy about the prospects for the defense tho and note that Georgia St is a solid veteran team that’s done well in the role of road dog…..tough call at this price…..Note that the COCKS have WOO PIG up next.
No leanage
SMU -11 North Texas (68) …….MEGALOCKS line – SMU -10
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – SMU -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 39.5 North Texas 28.5
We’ll take a small sprinkle on a RUNNING DOG that’s found an identity over the last half season or so doing major damage on the ground….SMU is an explosive bunch and recall that QB T Mordecai threw 39 TD passes LY…New HC Rhett Lashlee should have things rocking on offense but we aren’t 100% sold on the defense…Mean Green 6-1 SU L7 but SMU has smoked NT three straight times.
Lean – North Texas +11
Louisville -4.5 Syracuse (57.5) …….MEGALOCKS line – LUA-VUH -6.5
MEGALOCKS Market Composite – LUA-VUH -4.8
Vegas Implied Score – LUA-VUH 30.75 Syracuse 26.25
The Dome can be a tough place to play but this looks like a pretty good set-up for LUA_VUH….They’ve got a devastating ground game (200+ YPG three years in a row) and Syracuse’s biggest weakness is up front where they have a completely rebuild DL…..Cards have beat the Orange L2Y by a combined score of 71-3 (!) but to be fair both of those games were in LUA-VUH…..Feels like the road fav gets it done.
Lean LUA-VUH -4.5
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.