Hey everyone.
Here’s the Week 10 Boxscore and Wagering review. FBS vs FBS MATCHUPS ONLY.
Let’s go!
Boxscore review:
AAC
UTSA 37 North Texas 29 – once again the Mean Green start slow – roar back but can’t GIT ER DONE…..459-421 yard edge for North Texas but were (-3) in t/o….misleading final
SMU 36 Rice 31 – Mustangs had to work for it….won the yardage battle convincingly 477-290, Rice was (-2) in t/o margin….Had ball with a chance to win deep in their own end with about a min left
Tulane 13 East Carolina 10 – cats have nine lives but we aren’t sure how many Tulane has…..Down 10-CACK found a way to grind out another win….dominated the stats 368-190 yard edge
Memphis 59 South Florida 50 – yup, this game happened…..Tigers up 21-7…..ended up tied 35-35 in 3Q….Memphis up 17 late….Bulls get give their +14 backers some SWEET BACK DOOR ACTION bagging a TD with 55 seconds left….583-580 yard edge for South Florida, they were -2 in t/o
UAB 45 FAU 42 – the FIGHTING TRENT DILFERS get one…..win the game with 3 seconds left…..Blazers had a 35-14 lead (!) in the #Q and then gave up FOUR TDs in a row….Owls led 42-35….and then THEY blew it…..614-484 yard edge for UAB
Temple 32 Navy 18 – 448-268 yd edge for HOOT HOOT and they played a lot better with starting QB EJ Warner back….402 passing yards, 4-2 TD to INT
Charlotte 33 Tulsa 26 (OT) – 49ers were down 17 (!) and somehow came back with that brutal offense…..431-412 yard edge for Charlotte, allowed 273 rushing yards but found a way behind QB Trexler Ivey
ACC
Clemson 31 Notre Dame 23 – Tigers needed this one!….Irish won the yardage battle 329-285 but turned the ball over three times including a pick six (-1 t/o margin)……Hartman with 146 passing yards (2 INT) and Klubnik with 109 (1-1 TD to INT)….Clemson RB Phil Mafah dominated 36-186 2 TD.
Florida St 24 Pitt 7 – Seminoles played without top-two WRs….501-333 yard edge….QB Jordan Travis still excelled without his best weapons….360 yards, TD
NC State 20 Miami 6 – another gross effort from QB T Van Dyke…..Canes 292-231 yd edge but turned it over 4 times (-2 t/o margin)…..Florida St up next….RUH ROH
LUA-VUH 34 Virginia Tech 3 – Cards are playing great football and are close to a LOCK to face Florida St in the ACC title game….382-140 yard edge….Held Hokies to 72 pass yards
Duke 24 Wake Forest 21 – Duke wins on the final play with a 26-yard FG….They never had the lead until that kick went thru….Misleading final as Wake had 400-267 yd edge, both teams with two turnovers
Boston College 17 Syracuse 10 – good game from the Orange defense and they were playing with backup QB but BC wins it late….350-246 yard edge for Eagles and they clinch a bowl spot….Orange have lost five in a row
Georgia Tech 45 Virginia 17 – unexpected blowout win, yo…..514-351 yard edge and Yellow Jackets won the rushing battle 305-119….One more win and GT is off to a bowl game
Big 12
Texas 33 Kansas St 30 (OT) – Crazy finish!….Texas led 27-14 heading into 4Q….Goes into OT….Texas gets FG….Kansas St decides to go for win instead of kick tying FG and get DENIED…..478-370 yd edge for Texas, 230 rush 248 pass
Oklahoma St 27 Oklahoma 24 – It was BEDLAM!….Pokes hold on and stop Sooners on potential tying/game winning drive…Even game….Sooners 492-480 yard edge but killer was (-2) turnover margin for Oklahoma…..Sooners still in the mix for trip to Big 12 title game but need help….Oklahoma St tied for first (!) with Texas
Texas Tech 35 TCU 28 – even game but Horned Frogs (-2) in t/o margin…..440-428 yd edge for TCU
Houston 25 Baylor 24 (OT) – crazy Dana Holgorsen magic…..COOGS down 7 in OT….get a TD….go for two and the win!….413-366 yard edge for Bears, was just 7-0 Houston at the half
UCF 28 Cincinnati 26 – first Big 12 win and they did it over their former Big East rivals…..Cincy down 8 late, get a TD but miss the 2-point conversion try….misleading final….Bearcats with 515-393 yard edge but were (-2) in t/o margin
Kansas 28 Iowa St 21 – Jayhawks got the jump 21-3….361-333 yard edge and Kansas very much in the mix for Big 12 title game berth after a big road win
West Virginia 37 BYU 7 – 567-277 yard edge and 336 rush yards for WEST BY GOD VIRGINIA, BYU played with backup QB
Big Ten
Michigan 41 Purdue 13 – Another slaughter of a cupcake……445-269 yd edge……WATERBOARD SPECIAL for anyone holding a Michigan -33 or similar ticket…..Up 41-6 late….Purdue throws a 24-yard TD pass with 18 seconds left on 4th down for some SWEET BACK DOOR ACTION for Purdue bettors……Penn St up next for Michigan finally they play someone that isn’t completely terrible
Ohio St 35 Rutgers 16 – It’s time for the PULP FICTION GIMP to make an appearance to torture Rutgers +18.5 backers….Here comes the ball gag, pliers, and blowtorch….Rutgers dominating the line of scrimmage up 9-7 3Q driving in Ohio St territory….Ohio St can’t stop the run…..so why not try a funky pass play!? GREAT IDEA!!…..PICK 6….Ohio St returns it for a TD and leads 14-6….Well at least Rutgers will still cover +18.5 and they could never lose by 19!…..Ohio St goes up 21-9…..Rutgers comes right back! down 21-16 in the 3Q…..They’ll never lose by 19…..uh oh….Ohio St TD with 12 min left……28-16…..Ohio St ball late….TD with 2 min left….YUP….They win by 19…..Rutgers had 361-328 yard edge and won the rushing battle 232-139.
Penn St 51 Maryland 15 – definitely a JAMES FRANKLIN SPECIAL….beat the life out of a mediocre team….404-234 yd edge….6 sacks for Penn St and Terps had (-49) net rushing yards
Michigan St 20 CORN 17 – Nebraska will have to wait to get to bowl eligibility…..Sparty bowed up and won a tough one….295-277 yd edge for Michigan St and CORN was (-3) in t/o margin (!)
Indiana 20 Wisconsin 14 – big win for the Hoosiers!….led wire to wire….Wisconsin had 344-261 yd edge but were (-2) in t/o margin….Badgers season going GLUG GLUG GLUG
Iowa 10 Northwestern 7 – IOWA does IOWA things! Still on a COLLISION COURSE WITH DESTINY and a Big Ten title rematch with Michigan…..just kidding….not really…..Iowa nails 53 yd FG in dying seconds…..Wrigley Field will never be the same….Total yards?….170-169 for Northwestern
Illinois 27 Minnesota 26 – tough loss for the Gophers and their divisional hopes…..Illinois backup QB John Paddock throws winning 46-yard TD pass with under a minute remaining….371-260 yard edge for Illini and they were (-2) in t/o margin so have to say they were the better team
Conference USA
Western Kentucky 21 UTEP 13 – TOPPERS down 3-0 at the half but put up 14 in the 3Q…..Misleading final, 368-280 yd edge for Miners but they didn’t do enough in the first half considering how well the defense played…..WKU has yuuuge game with New Mexico St up next
New Mexico St 13 MTSU 7 – 402-346 yd edge for Aggies, big win sets up match for a spot in the CUSA title game, Blue Raiders now have seven losses and won’t go bowling
Liberty 56 Louisiana Tech 30 – Flames flex their muscles for 4Q…..Now sit at 9-0….602-388 yard edge, 305 rush and 297 pass
Independents
<see info in other conference sections>
MAC
Toledo 31 Buffalo 13 – only MACtion could start with an opening kickoff return TD….with snow on the field…..355-324 yard edge for Rockets…..they turned it over four times (Buffalo two turnovers) and didn’t really dominate like the score sorta indicates
Central Michigan 37 Northern Illinois 31 – fun game on a slippery field!….FIRE UP CHIPS are one win away from a bowl game….Huskies won the yardage battle 506-447 but were -3 in t/o margin and fell behind 24-3 at the break….Difference was the Central Michigan rushing attack…..331 yards at 7.0 YPC
Bowling Green 24 Ball St 21 – competitive game, 283-281 yard edge for Ball St but they were -2 in t/o margin….Falcons one win away from bowl eligibility….Ball St with seven losses is now DEEED
Akron 31 Kent St 27 – Akron down 27-10 and looked DEAD IN THE WATER but came back to steal the Wagon Wheel Trophy….Zips with 393-346 yd edge, Golden Flashes looked good until the final quarter when they allowed 21 (!) points
Mountain West
Fresno St 37 Boise St 30 – Broncos with 488-441 yard edge but were chasing all game…….Two untimely turnovers and KO return TD allowed didn’t help, Fresno is very much alive in Mountain West race, Boise St is BUH BYE
Army 23 Air Force 3 – WHOA NELLIE…..Big upset, Army got the jump 17-CACK thanks for Air Force miscues….259-253 yard edge for Falcons….Air Force was…..wait for it…..(-6) (!) in turnover margin!
Utah St 32 San Diego St 24 (2 OT) – Aztecs miserable season continues….They were down 17-7 4Q, came back to tie it and force OT…..Aggies win the game in 2nd OT…..400-384 yd edge for Utah St
Wyoming 24 Colorado St 15 – 334-274 yd edge for Pokes and +2 in t/o margin, Rams need to win out to make a bowl game, Pokes are still alive in the conference chase but need wins and some help
Hawaii 27 Nevada 14 – Hawaii breaks 4-game losing streak…..led 17-CACK at the break and that was it….339-236 yard edge for Hawaii and the actually had 136 rushing yards
UNLV 56 New Mexico 14 – These Rebels are JUGGERNAUTS…..They now sit at 7-2 off blowout win…..Three tough games left tho….416-362 yard edge and +2 in t/o….QB J Maiava threw for 247 yards and 3 TD on just 18 attempts
PAC 12
Washington 52 USC 42 – Huskies are still the only undefeated team in PAC 12 conference play…..572-515 yard edge for Washington…..316 (!) rush yards and 256 passing
Utah 55 Arizona St 3 – massive “get right” game for Utah…..massive 513-83 yard edge, 352 yards on the ground
Oregon 63 California 19 – 597-286 yard edge, Bo Nix yuuuge game 386 passing yards and 4-1 TD to INT, two rushing TDs….host USC next
Oregon St 26 Colorado 19 – Buffs get the late cover, TD with under two min left….misleading final….Beavers had 418-238 yard edge…..195 rush 223 pass
Arizona 27 UCLA 10 – the Wildcats keep on rolling!….429-271 yard edge, held ball for 35 minutes, UCLA used 3 QBs
Stanford 10 Washington St 7 – WOW….Cougars keep slipping….5th straight loss and in danger of missing a bowl game……245-217 yard edge for Washington St…..Stanford broke the 7-7 tie with 4Q FG
SEC
ROLL TIDE 42 LSU 28 – game tied at 28 and then Alabama took over……507-428 yard edge for ROLL TIDE….Heisman front-runner Jayden Daniels did all that he could (219 pass, 163 rush) but note that he left game late with concussion-like symptoms….Hope he’s ok…..Alabama looking like a LOCK to make the SEC title game!
Ole Miss 38 Texas A&M 35 – Ole Miss was looking to go up 17-CACK in first half but Aggies blocked FG and returned for a TD….From that point it was GAME ON….Aggies take lead with 5 min left…..Ole Miss takes lead late with under 2 min left….Texas A&M misses game-trying FG that looked like it may have been blocked…….518-457 yd edge for Ole Miss…..Both teams with over 300 passing yards
WOO PIG 39 Florida 36 (OT) – big win for WOO PIG!….Crazy back and forth game, Arkansas looked way better on offense after OC change…..Win for the first time ever in the SWAMP…..481-394 yd edge for Razorbacks….226 rush 255 pass
Auburn 31 Vanderbilt 15 – back-to-back SEC wins for Tigers…..424-266 yd edge
Kentucky 24 Mississippi St 3 – 271-218 yd edge, could be near the end of the line for Miss St HC Zach Arnett
Georgia 30 Missouri 21 – very competitive game, cut lead to 24-21 early 4Q, 385-363 yd edge for Dawgs,.. Missouurahh was (-2) in turnovers and one in particular was a killer…..Georgia has Ole Miss next
Tennessee 59 UConn 3 – 650-256 yd edge, blowout city, Vols with big game at Missouri up next
South Carolina 38 Jacksonville 28 – close game the entire way….28-28 heading into 4Q….AND note that South Cackalacky had the benefit of (+3) t/o margin…..488-421 yd edge
Sun Belt
Appalachian St 31 Marshall 9 – 404-243 yd edge, decent game from the App St defense even tho it was Marshall, still barely alive in Sun Belt race
Coastal Carolina 28 Old Dominion 24 – yes, guy….CHANTS down 21-6 late 3Q with their backup QB and find a way to win 28-24….QB was something called an Ethan Vasko…..180 pass/170 rush….458-345 yd edge for Coastal
James Madison 42 Georgia St 14 – these guys never quit BASHING SKULLS…..now sit at 9-0…..567-228 (!) yard edge over pretty good Georgia St team
Texas St 45 Georgia Southern 24 – Bobcats won the 2nd Q 24-zip and that was all she wrote, led 31-10 at half….487-375 yd edge for Texas St…..Bobcats are now BOWL ELIGIBLE!
South Alabama 28 Troy 10 – Jags jumped out to quick 7-0 lead and couldn’t do much with backup QB…..400-252 yard edge for Troy and they’ve all but locked up the FUN BELT West
Arkansas St 37 Louisiana 17 – it seems impossible but the Red Wolves have FIVE wins and they don’t look bad!….One more win to get to a bowl game…..426-327 yd edge and +2 in t/o for Arkansas St
Southern Miss 24 ULM 7 – Golden Eagles get a much-needed win…..444-260 yard edge and +3 in t/o margin…..206 rush and 238 pass yards….both teams now 2-7 and essentially done for the year
Betting review
“Official” plays
Ole Miss -3 (push)
Oklahoma St +6 (W) ….closed at +5.5
Small plays/Leans
4-5
W – Troy, Boston College, Penn St, Army
L – Notre Dame, Miss St, Corn, Iowa St, Louisiana Tech
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this season. 8-18-2 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 69-44 (61%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.), but as mentioned a number of weeks back, we recommend that it’s best to risk the same amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks. That’s what we’ve been doing so we suggest the same for everyone else.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
Season Win Total Club
UMass over 2 – Winner. Took down mighty Merrimack to get to three wins. They could easily have a few more wins but we’ll take it.
Virginia Tech over 5.5 – Three winnable games left. Need to win two.
Colorado St over 4.5 – Same as Virginia Tech.
Kentucky over 7 – Sitting at 6-3. Alabama, S Carolina, LUA-VUH are left on the schedule.
Tulane under 9.5 – One loss in the bag. Lots of close calls for losses but they keep cobbling together wins.
Akron over 3.5 – Need to win two of last three. One is vs Miami Ohio.
UConn over 5 – This ticket can now be used as a beer coaster.
Futures and Props Club
Sun Belt Champion – Georgia Southern at +1600 and Coastal Carolina at +550 are two of the three teams tied for first in the East division. Remember that James Madison is not eligible to win the conference.
MAC Champion – Toledo at +180 and Miami Ohio at +803 are very live. The Rockets have pretty much sewn up the West division and Miami Ohio has the lead in the East division.
ACC Champion – Florida St at +175 appears to be a LOCK to make the title game.
PAC 12 Champion – USC at +200 needs to beat Oregon this week to stay alive. Have fun with that, yo.
CUSA Champion – Western Kentucky at +125 needs to beat New Mexico St this week to stay in the hunt.
SEC West Champion – No more live tickee tickees. Unless ROLL TIDE loses to Kentucky and Auburn…and then….Nope.
Mountain West Champion – Boise St needs a miracle. As per our alert, Wyoming and San Jose St were added at longshot prices for some couch change. Let’s see what happens.
AAC Champion – SMU at +320 is in fine shape to reach the AAC Championship Game.
National Champion – Georgia looks like the best team in the country. Texas is still alive. As per our alert, we added Oregon at +1400 and they’ll need to win the PAC 12 and go from there.
Heisman Trophy winner – M Penix (+600) and Bo Nix (+2000) are all currently the top-two in offshore markets. LSU’s Jayden Daniels is in concussion protocol after taking a hit in the Alabama game.
Cheers and enjoy Week 11!