LSU at Alabama
Posted November 3
The Game
Yes, guy. This is one of our favorite sporting events of the calendar year.
ROLL TIDE hasn’t looked like teams of the recent past but they’ve started to look better every week since the Ole Miss game and they come into this tilt in full control of their own destiny in the SEC West. LSU is still very much in the hunt for the division crown and they just might be good enough to weasel their way into the playoff. But first things first, yo. They’ve gotta find a way to take down mighty Alabama on their home field.
Let’s gooo!
The Details
Alabama -3 LSU (61)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 32 LSU 29
Alabama offense vs LSU defense
The Tide have been inconsistent on offense struggling between being explosive in the THROW GAME (QB Jalen Milroe 10.6 YPA) and blatantly incompetent (35 sacks allowed, worst SEC, #128 FBS). The good news is that they’ve got a fine 1-2 combo at RB (McClellan/Williams) who may not be “elite” but they can definitely do some damage vs a poor LSU run defense that’ll be missing a key cog up front. Milroe has proven to be one of the best deep throwers in the nation (when he’s not getting sacked) and we expect him to hit a small handful of big plays down the field on Saturday night. LSU’s secondary has been stricken with a yuuuge case of the INJURY BUG so it’ll be interesting to see how they hold up in coverage. Any recent version of ROLL TIDE would be able to rip thru LSU’s defense LONG TIME but the Alabama offensive line has been suspect all year (sacks, penalties) so it’s very likely that they self-implode a few times.
LSU offense vs Alabama defense
He may not win the Heisman Trophy but it’s pretty clear to our HEISMAN TROPHY INSIDERS that QB Jayden Daniels has been the best player in college football this season. Daniels has been lethal through the air (25-3 TD to INT, 11.5 YPA) and a force with his legs (521, 5 TD) whilst playing a schedule 978 times tougher than what Michigan has dealt with this year. LSU has two of the best WRs in the business that’ll both be playing on Sundays in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas who’ve combined for over 1,700 receiving yards and 20 TDs with plenty of football left to play. #1 RB Logan Diggs is staring to find his stride and the OL is playing at a high level. ROLL TIDE is playing solid defense (#17 FBS total defense, #21 run D, #30 pass efficiency D) but Texas showed that they’re definitely vulnerable when faced with dangerous skill position doods. The Tigers may start a bit slow but the more plays they run, the more success they will have. The Tigers rank #1 in the country in total offense, #13 in rushing offense, and #3 in passing offense.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
This is a prime revenge spot for ROLL TIDE as they lost to LSU last year in OT (L 32-31)……The road team has covered six of the last seven meetings between these two programs….You can’t say it very often when Nick Saban is involved but the coaching battle is pretty close to even with Brian Kelly on the sidelines for LSU…..Neither team should be coming away empty when they get inside the 30-yard line (barring a turnover or stop on 4th down)….Alabama PK Will Reichard is 15/15 (!) and LSU’s Damian Ramos is 11/13 on FG attempts.
Summary
It’s often good policy to take the team with the much better defense but we believe that LSU will find a way to keep this one close all the way given how explosive the offense has been this season. Catching +3 is our preferred option but see below.
Conclusion
We’ve been waiting for a consensus +3.5 to pop up all week but it hasn’t gotten there yet. We’ll call it a small play/lean if it gets to +3.5 by 5pm Friday (will post in this thread), but if not, we’ll have to take a seat pregame and take part in some SWEET IN-GAME ACTION.
No leanage for now (see above)
UPDATE: No consensus +3.5 popped up as of now. No leanage. We did add LSU in our ML underdog selections (see blog post)
Note from Week 9 Boxscore and Wagering review……..
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this season. 7-18-1 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 65-39 (62.5%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.), but as mentioned a number of weeks back, we recommend that it’s best to risk the same amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks. That’s what we’ve been doing so we suggest the same for everyone else.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.