Notre Dame at Clemson
Posted November 3
The Game
This game isn’t nearly as intriguing as we thought it would be during the summer months but it’s never bad to watch Notre Dame battle with Clemson! The Tigers have had a very disappointing campaign to say the least and sit with a record of 4-4. The Irish have looked good all season outside of the drubbing they took on the road vs LUA-VUH. Don’t forget that they were within a play of beating Ohio St back in September.
Let’s do itttt!
The Details
Notre Dame -3 Clemson (44.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Notre Dame -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Notre Dame 23.75 Clemson 20.75
Notre Dame offense vs Clemson defense
The Irish haven’t been overwhelming on offense but they’ve been efficient and balanced (#55 FBS rush, #44 pass) behind veteran QB Sam Hartman (18-5 TD to INT). RB Audric Estime is the key to the offense and he’s quickly closing in on a 1,000-yard season (901, 6.2, 12 TD). The THROW GAME took a hit with the season-ending injury to TE Mitchell Evans who leads the team in receiving yards and receptions but Hartman does a very good job of spreading the ball around. Note that 13 (!) different doods have caught at least one TD pass in 2023. Clemson is still playing fine defense (#6 FBS total D, #15 run D, #11 pass efficiency D) and the Irish will have to work for everything they get. One worrisome note is a Clemson pass rush that’s been a shell of it’s former self. They’ve routinely booked 40+ sacks every year but they’ve only got 18 so far heading into the final few games of the season.
Clemson offense vs Notre Dame defense
Clemson’s offense has been a major disappointment this year and if you take out the games vs Charleston Southern and Florida Atlantic they’ve only managed to score 7/31/17/20/17 points. QB Cade Klubnik has an instinct for doing the exact wrong thing at the exact worst time and he’s only averaging 6.6 YPA. The WR/TE group is mediocre although Notre Dame will definitely have to account for TE Jake Briningstool who’s turned into quite the weapon. #1 RB Will Shipley is out but his longest gain of the year was just 21 yards. Phil Mafah is a good back but he’s more of a bruiser despite his 6.0 YPC and he won’t be hard to find for the Notre Dame defense. The Irish are #38 vs the run and #3 (!) in pass efficiency D. They don’t have a killer pass rush either (19 sacks) so we expect Klubnik to have some time to make plays.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
If it comes down to a FG we like like the chances of Notre Dame’s Spencer Shrader to get the job done (10/15, 4-6 50+) vs the collection of clowns performing the duties for Clemson…..This is a tasty revenge spot for Clemson who was humiliated last year in South Bend by a score of 35-14…..Clemson ranks #96 in turnover margin, Notre Dame is #8.
Summary
Clemson makes too many mistakes and don’t have many (any?) difference-makers on offense. The noon kickoff probably helps Notre Dame as it won’t be a night game with a stadium full of folks that have been getting sauced up all day but who knows. Recall that Wake Forest almost beat Clemson on this very field a few weeks ago. 101% of the public is on Notre Dame so if that scares you, take Clemson. We’ll go with the better team and see what happens.
Conclusion
Lean – Notre Dame -3
Note from Week 9 Boxscore and Wagering review……..
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this season. 7-18-1 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 65-39 (62.5%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.), but as mentioned a number of weeks back, we recommend that it’s best to risk the same amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks. That’s what we’ve been doing so we suggest the same for everyone else.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.