Week 10 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
NOTE – We’ll probably be adding a FUTURES PLAY late afternoon. Will advise here, via text, via email, and in the blog section (we’ll repost the futures blog post so it shows up at the front).
UPDATE – THREE futures plays have been added. The Futures and Props post has been updated (page 1, Blog section)
Handy index: Quick Takes
“Official” plays in blue. Small plays/Leans in green.
SMALL PLAY/LEAN ADDED: 1:30pm Thursday
- Northern Illinois at Central Michigan (Tuesday)
- Buffalo at Toledo (Tuesday)
- Connecticut at Tennessee
- Auburn at Vanderbilt
- California at Oregon
- Oregon St at Colorado
- Stanford at Washington
- Ball St at Bowling Green (Wednesday)
- Kent St at Akron (Wednesday)
- TCU at Texas Tech (Thursday)
- Wake Forest at Duke (Thursday)
- Ohio St at Rutgers
- South Alabama at Troy (Thursday)
- Charlotte at Tulsa
- UNLV at New Mexico
- Pittsburgh at Florida St
- Miami at NC State
- Wisconsin at Indiana
- Kentucky at Mississippi St
- Jacksonville St at South Carolina
- WOO PIG at Florida
- Navy at Temple
- Boston College at Syracuse (Friday)
- CORN at Michigan St
- Houston at Baylor
- Kansas St at Texas
- SMU at Rice
- USF at Memphis
- Tulane at East Carolina
- UTSA at North Texas
- Washington at USC
- Kansas at Iowa St
- UCF at Cincinnati
- BYU at West Virginia
- Georgia Tech at Virginia
- Arizona St at Utah
- UCLA at Arizona
- WKU at UTEP
- ULM at Southern Miss
- Penn St at Maryland
- Iowa vs Northwestern
- Illinois at Minnesota
- Louisiana at Arkansas St
- Hawaii at Nevada
- Utah St at San Diego St
- Colorado St at Wyoming
- James Madison at Georgia St
- Georgia Southern at Texas St
- Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion
- FAU at UAB
- Purdue at Michigan
- Virginia Tech at Louisville
- MTSU at New Mexico St
- Marshall at Appalachian St
- Louisiana Tech at Liberty
- Missouri at Georgia
- Fresno St at Boise St
- Army vs Air Force
QUICK TAKES
1. Northern Illinois -3.5 Central Michigan (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -5
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 24 Central Michigan 20.25
Midweek MACtion is here!
It was nice to have some CUSA weekday games to wet the appetite and now it’s time for MACtion to deliver more unforgettable memories for college football fans…..Both teams are 4-4 but the Huskies are playing a better brand of football and they’re the better squad on both sides of the football…..#3 in the MAC in YPP offense (Chips #7) and #2 in YPP defense (#12)….The Huskies have allowed 14/13/13 last three games and have won three straight…..FIRE UP CHIPS have owned the series recently covering 8L9 and note that HC Jim McElwain is 4-0 ATS as a home dog with Central Michigan…..Prefer the road team but they’re not dominant enough to just sleepwalk thru this game and win so we’ll see if -3 pops up at some point…..Highly unlikely but you never know…..UPDATE – mobsters just steamed it to -5.5 which is closer to where we think the line should be.
No leanage
2. Toledo -15.5 Buffalo (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -14
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 33.5 Buffalo 18
The Rockets are the class of the MAC as we approach press time and they lead the West division standings with a tiebreaker in hand on Northern Illinois…..Toledo leads the MAC in rushing (233 YPG) and the Bulls’ run defense is awful (#11 MAC run D, last YPC) so the Rockets should be able to move it on the ground and note they also have the most efficient THROW GAME in the conference……Buffalo does most of their work on offense thru the air and Toledo is #2 in MAC passing efficiency D (7-8 TD to INT)….Buffalo is right there in the MAC East race but they’ve got the meat of their schedule upcoming (Toledo, Ohio, Miami Ohio) and have beaten up on scrubs…..Prefer the home team but only at a number of -13.5 or better and here we are.
No leanage
3. Tennessee -35 Connecticut (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -32
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 44 Connecticut 9
The Vols come in off a yuuuge road win at Kentucky and have another SEC game (at Missouri) up next….They can name the score but how motivated will they be once they’re up by 28? ….The Huskies played BC to a respectable final score last week but they were outgained 433-222…. Looks like a 30-40 point win and we’ll take a pass.
No leanage
4. Auburn -12 Vanderbilt (49)…………MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 30.5 Vanderbilt 18.5
The Tigers broke a four-game skid last week vs Mississippi St and sit at 4-4 for the season….They should be able to get to a bowl game given their schedule (Vanderbilt, New Mexico St) but you never know….They’ve lost 8 (!) consecutive SEC road games and play much better at home but at least they found a bit of a THROW GAME in their last outing….The Commodores have injuries piled on top of injuries but they should enjoy the drop in class after facing Missouri, Florida, Georgia, and Ole Miss….They’ve been known to SHOCK the WORLD once in a while out of nowhere so beware……Could only side with Auburn in a “gun to the head” scenario but just don’t trust their offense or their ability to play decent away from home.
No leanage
5. Oregon -24 California (57.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -21
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 40.75 California 16.75
Yes, guy…..QUACK ATTACK did the UNTHINKABLE in their last outing and destroyed Utah on their home turf…..We regard the Ducks as top-five team in our power ratings so they’re a tough fade….but off that win….and with USC up next….This is a tough spot to lay the points….Especially since Cal has found a way to SCORE the FOOTBALL lately….40,49 in 2L3G….Thankfully for the Ducks their defense is horrible.
No leanage
6. Oregon St -13 Colorado (63)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -11
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 38 Colorado 25
Neither team is tempting our senses for a wager at this point….Oregon St is much better at home and they’ve already lost a pair of PAC 12 road games (Washington St, Arizona)….The Buffs are 8-2 ATS L10 in the series but are currently in a downward form cycle….They’re capable of putting up points and maybe the return home gives them the shot in the arm they need?
No leanage
7. Washington St -13.5 Stanford (60.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -12
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 37 Stanford 23.5
The Cardinal are showing some GREEN SHOOTS of growth…..It wasn’t too long ago that they recorded the biggest comeback win in program history at Colorado (W 46-43) and they just played a competitive game vs Washington in which they outgained the mighty Huskies 495-460 (!)….It’s just hard to trust a team with a horrible defense (allowed 40+ in four straight games) and this could be a “get right” spot for Washington St and their explosive passing attack.
No leanage
8. Bowling Green -5.5 Ball St (39.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -4.5
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 22.5 Ball St 17
The Falcons have won two straight games (Buffalo, Zips) but they didn’t exceed 300Y of offense in either of those two triumphs….and in fact….they’ve only exceeded 300Y of offense once in their L6G…..It didn’t hurt that they were +6 in t/o margin in those last two wins….They rely on the rushing attack but Ball St has been pretty good defending the run (#2 MAC)….Ball St has a weak offense to say the least but they’ve recently put K Kelly into the starting QB role and the ground game has worked well……the THROW GAME not so much…Under might be the best move but we were hoping for something close to 42…..Don’t hate the underdog but wouldn’t settle for less than +7 unless you’re dying for some SWEET ACTION Wednesday night.
No leanage
9. Akron -3.5 Kent St (38.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Akron -5
Vegas Implied Score – Akron 21 Kent St 17.5
WAGON WHEEL TROPHY time, yo…..Kent St has won the L4 meetings and covered 6L7…….We have them rated as the worst team in the nation but Akron (without starting QB DJ Irons who’s been out for a while now) isn’t that much better….Akron has the better defense and probably the better QB situation BUT note that the Zips QBs have a GHASTLY 6-12 TD to INT ratio…..The Zips do a better job defensively vs the pass and not so much vs the run…..Kent does nothing well but they’ve shown the very occasional flash of being able to run the ball……Akron has been good enough to hang around in several games but almost all of those were with Irons at QB…..Akron has the better roster but not sure we wanna lay more than a FG…..Akron has scored 10/14/10/14 L4G…..Kent St has scored 10/3/17/14/6 L5G……Prefer the home team but will monitor the situation and see if a -3 pops up.
No leanage
10. Texas Tech -3 TCU (60)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 31.5 TCU 28.5
It’s a battle of two mediocre Big 12 teams on Thursday night and the Red Raiders will try and pick up a desperately needed win….They’ve lost two straight games and are in danger of missing out on a bowl game which would be a yuuuge disappointment…..They’ve been inconsistent on offense and not very good on defense BUT they get QB B Morton back for this game which will make them more potent whilst giving them a bit of a confidence boost….TCU has a mark of 4-4 and they’ve lost three of their last four contests including a pair to teams in Texas Tech’s area code (Iowa St, West By God Virginia)….The Horned Frogs have only exceeded 21 points once in their L4G…..Feels like a coin toss….TCU is the slightly better team….Spot favors the Red Raiders in our opinion.
No leanage
11. Duke -12.5 Wake Forest (45.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Duke -11
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 29 Wake Forest 16.5
Easy game to throw in the gutter from a betting perspective….Wake Forest is a mess but they’re still well-coached and are very much still alive for a bowl bid (4-4)….And this is a rivalry game…..Duke hasn’t been the same without a healthy Riley Leonard at QB and they’ve scored 14/24/20/0 L4G.
No leanage
12. Ohio St -18.5 Rutgers (42.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -18
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 30.5 Rutgers 12
The Buckeyes continue to dominate with one of the best defenses in the country as they haven’t allowed anyone to score more than 17 points thru eight games…..They’ve held five teams to under 100 rushing yards and only Notre Dame managed to cobble together more than 125 (176)……..Ohio St might be in a bit of a letdown spot after facing Penn St and Wisconsin but their defense matches up well with the Scarlet Knights who focus almost all of their offensive energy on the rushing attack…..Not easy to lay 18 points or so with a total this low but we’d still play the favorite or nothing…..right now it’s nothing, yo……Ohio St has only managed to score a total of 44 points in their L2G and Rutgers can play a bit of D.
No leanage
13. Troy -6 South Alabama (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Troy -7
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 26 South Alabama 20
The Trojans keep chugging along and they sit atop the FUN BELT West division standings…..Their defense is in peak form and they’ve outscored the opposition 115-23 L4G…..They’ve got a RB approaching 1,000 yards in Kimani Vidal (994, 5.8, 6 TD) and QB Gunnar Watson has a tidy 14-4 TD to INT mark (8.7 YPA)…..The Jags SHAT the BED last week vs Louisiana and were (-5) in turnovers in a 33-20 loss…..If they manage to somehow win this game there will be as many as four (!) teams tied with two losses for the division lead (Cajuns play Arkansas St; one of them has to lose)……..We don’t see that happening as they’ve already lost to two teams much worse than Troy (Central Michigan, Cajuns) and the Jags have a hobbled QB in Carter Bradley who suffered a knee injury last week….He should be good to go (as of Monday 4pm) BUT we’ve seen coaches hide QB injuries all season and even if he’s 100% he’ll have problems getting away from the nasty Troy front seven…..If he’s ruled out later in the week the line will cross -7 in our opinion…..Either way Troy is 5-0 SU and ATS L5 in the series.
Lean – Troy -6
Note – it’s getting close to a split market -6/-6.5 right now; there are -6s all over Vegas and at some offshore spots so we’d recommend getting down sooner rather than later if you agree with our analysis; -6.5 is fine but not crazy about -7 unless Bradley is eventually ruled out.
14. Tulsa -3.5 Charlotte (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulsa -4
Vegas Implied Score – Charlotte 26 Tulsa 22.5
This might be the most disgusting game of the week….Charlotte is scrappy and they play good D but the QB situation is a mess….Tulsa’s season has taken a nasty detour to TURD TOWN as they’ve lost their last two games by a combined score of 111-20.
No leanage
15. UNLV -10 New Mexico (61)…………MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 35.5 New Mexico 25.5
The Rebels suffered their first conference loss last week at Fresno St but they’re still in the hunt for a trip to the conference title game (!)…..and they’ve already got a bowl bid wrapped up….The Lobos need this one if they want a realistic shot of getting to six wins and they won their last home game vs Hawaii (W 42-21)….UNLV is the better team but the Lobos should be able to score enough to keep the game within reasonable distance….Tough call.
No leanage
16. Florida St -22 Pittsburgh (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -21
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 36.5 Pittsburgh 14.5
Don’t see any value in taking the Noles although that’s probably the only way you can go in this one….Outside of the BC game they’ve won their games by 21/53/22/38/18/25…..Pitt just got creamed by Notre Dame and their HC basically said, and we quote, “we used to have good players and now we have scrubs”.
No leanage
17. Miami -4 NC State (45)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 24.5 NC State 20.5
YOUR Miami Hurricanes travel to Raleigh with a mark of 6-2 and they’re tied with the Pack in the ACC standings with two conference losses….This is a tough spot for the Canes coming off a PAIR of OT wins and now playing in one of the tougher road environments in the ACC….The Pack took down Clemson last week but they were outgained 364-202 (+2 in t/o margin)……NC State has played solid defense (again) but the offense struggles to do much of anything…..Miami doesn’t have explosiveness on offense and QB Tyler Van Dyke is dealing with multiple nagging injuries…..Total might be a point or two high but we’ll pass for now.
No leanage
18. Wisconsin -9.5 Indiana (45)…………MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -10
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 27.25 Indiana 17.75
The Badgers gave 110% last week vs the Buckeyes but just couldn’t move the ball against the excellent Ohio St defense…..Indiana is a yuuuuge step down in class but the Badgers might be without star RB B Allen in addition to playing with a backup QB…..The Hoosiers gave Penn St a good battle on the road (!) last week but they’re still the worst team in the Big Ten…..Note that Indiana may have found something at QB in Brendan Sorsby who’s played well the L2G (4-1 TD to INT).
No leanage
19. Kentucky -3.5 Mississippi St (45.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -3
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 24.5 Mississippi St 21
This feels like one of the most disgusting plays you can make this week but we’ll take a shot with the home dog who played a pair of back-to-back competitive road games (beat WOO PIG, lost to Auburn) and now come home to face a Kentucky team that’s lost three in a row whilst struggling to find an identity….Miss St QB Mike Wright is mobile and has given the Bulldogs something to lean upon (run game)……Kentucky is taking too many penalties and they can’t get off the field on 3rd downs (44%, #104 FBS, LY 33%, #22)……Mississippi St has taken down Kentucky six straight times in Starkville and Mark Stoops is 0-11 (!) SU on the road vs SEC West teams.
Lean – Mississippi St +3.5
20. South Carolina -15.5 Jacksonville St (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 35.5 Jacksonville St 20
Behold the BATTLE of the COCKS…..South Cackalacky sits at 2-6 and HC Shane Beamer is acting stranger by the minute….They’re one-dimensional on offense and the defense is one of the worst in the SEC….Jacksonville St has been one of the most pleasant surprises of 2023 and they’ve got seven wins whilst playing a soft schedule….The defense is scrappy and they’ve got a mobile QB….Our gut tells us that an SEC team should smoke these guys BUT take note that this is Jacksonville St’s biggest game of the year as they try and take down an SEC team that’s very beatable…..They can’t win a conference title or make a bowl game (NCAA rules, of course) so we expect a complete max effort from the road dog.
No leanage
21. Florida -6 WOO PIG (49.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Florida -6
Vegas Implied Score – Florida 27.75 WOO PIG 21.75
We’re looking for a reason to back the road dog as the Gators are in a horrible sandwich spot off Georgia (at LSU next) and when you think about who the Gators have beaten outside of Tennessee (at home) it’s a fairly MOTLEY CRUE. McNeese, Charlotte, Vanderbilt, South Carolina aren’t exactly JUGGERNAUTS…..The problem is that Arkansas’ offense is really struggling right now….L4G they’ve put up just 174/286/250/200 (!) total yards…..Gators are 5-0 all time at home vs WOO PIG….Would want +7 to consider taking a stab…..Under might be the best play here but we’ll need to do a bit more work on that during the week.
No leanage
22. Navy -6.5 Temple (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Navy -7
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 25.5 Temple 19
Tough game to call as Navy’s offense has been gross for most of the season and they scored a total of 20 points in their L2G….The good news is that Temple is DUMPSTER JUICE and the Owls lost their last two games by a combined total of 100-14…The bad news for Navy is that HOOT HOOT gets starting QB EJ Warner back this week (as far as we know) and that is a yuuuge upgrade…You’ll know what we mean if you watched their QB play the L2G….Warner threw for 472 yards and 5 (!) TDs in his last game vs UTSA……Navy is more trustworthy but maybe Temple gives a last ditch max effort before packing it in for the season?
No leanage
23. Syracuse -2.5 Boston College (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boston College -1
Vegas Implied Score – Syracuse 26.5 Boston College 24
The Orange are watching their season go GLUG GLUG GLUG as they’ve lost four consecutive games (150-34 combined tally) and there’s nothing to be hopeful about given the injury situation and the performance of QB G Shrader who doesn’t have the necessary weapons around him (9-5 TD to INT) and they could be in big time trouble this week as they face the #1 rushing attack in the ACC in Boston College (321/308/246 L3G) and recall that Syracuse allowed over 300Y on the ground last week vs Virginia Tech…..The dog is 10-3 L13 in the series.
Lean – Boston College +3 -117
Note – +3 -110 is getting hard to find; +3 -115 to -122 is widely available
24. CORN -3 Michigan St (34.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – CORN -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – CORN 18.75 Michigan St 15.75
Yes, guy……Nebraska is just ONE win away from bowl eligibility and don’t laugh but they still have a shot in the KOOKY Big Ten West…..CORN has VERY limited options at WR/TE/RB but QB Heinrich “SAY HIS NAME” Haarberg leads the team in rushing and the defense is playing great….Michigan St has scored 7/9/16/24/0/12 L6G and are now rotating between 2nd and 3rd string QB….CORN is 9-1 ATS L10 vs Sparty….CORN is #1 in the Big Ten in rushing offense, #2 rushing defense.
No leanage
Updated 1:30pm Thursday
Lean CORN -3
25. Baylor -4 Houston (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – Baylor -5
Vegas Implied Score – Baylor 31 Houston 27
Houston has been better than expected this season and whilst they lost last week 41-CACK to the JABBAWOCKEE that is Kansas St….in their previous two games they beat West Virginia (Hail Mary) and outgained Texas (!) in a 7-point loss….Baylor is just not very good but we were hoping for a number near -7 to take the dog and here we are.
No leanage
26. Texas -4 Kansas St (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 27.75 Kansas St 23.25
The Longhorns haven’t looked great the L2W….They were outgained by Houston and won by 7…..They didn’t look overwhelming vs BYU in a 35-6 victory (354-292 yard edge)…..Now they face the red hot Kansas St Wildcats with backup QB Maalik Murphy who’s talented but inexperienced…..Kansas St is hitting their stride but note that Texas has beaten them six straight times and the Cats haven’t won in Austin since 2011…..It’s also noteworthy that from a match-up perspective things align with Texas as they’re very stout vs the run (#1 Big 12, 98 YPG) and Kansas St relies on the ground game to move the football.
No leanage
27. SMU -11.5 Rice (59.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – SMU -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 35.5 Rice 24
The Mustangs have been CRUSHING and KILLING over the L4G destroying their opponents by a combined score of 189-36 (!)……Rice is the best team that the Mustangs have faced since TCU (Sept 23) and they’ve got a legit QB in JT Daniels who almost engineered an upset over Tulane last week (L 30-28)….The line still looks a bit short but you can’t fade one of the hottest teams in the nation right now (+69 ATS L2G).
No leanage
28. Memphis -13.5 USF (68.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -12
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 41 USF 27.5
Memphis is the much better team but they showed us again last week that they have a really tough time putting four quarters of consistent football together….Yuuuge lead vs North Texas goes POOOOOF……The Bulls have a legit dual-threat QB in Byrum Brown and they’re coming off a bye….The bad news is that their defense is trash…..Memphis can’t afford a loss if they wanna stay in the AAC hunt.
No leanage
29. Tulane -17 East Carolina (47)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 32 East Carolina 15
The ARRRRRRRRRRRRRR Pirates just don’t have much of an offense (dead last ACC total offense) and that makes it tough to back the home team even tho they typically play well in Greenville….The D is good enough to keep things from getting out of hand….particularly vs the run (#3 AAC)…. but if Tulane has their minds on business they should win this game handily….The only worry for the Wave is their tendency to play at least one quarter of bad football per game….Last week it was a full half vs Rice as they were outscored 21-3 after the break.
No leanage
30. UTSA -8 North Texas (72)…………MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 40 North Texas 32
The Mean Green came all the way back from a 31-10 halftime deficit vs Memphis last week only to lose on a long TD pass with 10 seconds left….They can SCORE the FOOTBALL but their defense is absolutely horrible and UTSA is starting to catch fire…..QB Frank Harris is looking like his old self and the Roadrunners have scored 49/41/36/41 L4G….Prefer the road team who’s still undefeated in AAC action but North Texas lost to Tulane and Memphis by a combined 10 points L2G and are fighting hard for a bowl bid.
No leanage
31. Washington -3.5 USC (76.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 40 USC 36.5
We see some “value” with the Huskies who are still the only undefeated team left in the PAC 12 but their L2G have been very disappointing and it makes you wonder if they’ve already peaked?…..Two games ago they failed to score an offensive TD vs Arizona St at home (W 15-7) and then were outgained by something called Stanford in another close call last week….The Trojans’ defense is DUMPSTER JUICE but they’ll still got a loaded offense and they remain in the PAC 12 hunt (until they play Oregon)…..The Washington team of a month ago would wipe the floor with USC but now it’s not as clear in our opinion.
No leanage
32. Iowa St -2.5 Kansas (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 28.25 Kansas 25.75
We’ll roll with the hot home team that’s won three straight games and it currently tied (!) atop the Big 12 standings….The Iowa St offense won’t scare anyone but they do enough rushing and passing to do some damage vs bad defenses like what Kansas brings to the table….The Iowa St stop unit is playing great…..14/10/18 L3G and they’re #1 in the Big 12 in YPP D…..They do a good job vs the run (#3) and they’re very stout vs the THROW GAME (#1 pass efficiency D; 13 INT, #2 Big 12)….Kansas is a very efficient and potent offense but they haven’t been that great on the road this season….Losing to Oklahoma St and Texas and barely escaping Nevada…..Kansas is also off a yuuuuge upset win over Oklahoma….one of the program’s biggest wins in ages…..Cyclones have won 11L13 in the series.
Lean – Iowa St -2.5
33. UCF -4 Cincinnati (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCF -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 31.5 Cincinnati 27.5
Not a game we’ll be getting involved in….These two squads are a combined 0-10 (!!) in Big 12 action and whilst UCF has the more trustworthy offense they have a crap defense and the weather (if a bit chilly) has to favor the Bearcats…..AMIRITE?
No leanage
34. West Virginia -10 BYU (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – West Virginia -8
Vegas Implied Score – West Virginia 30.5 BYU 20.5
Both teams head into this tilt with 5-3 records and good prospects for bowl participation….BYU played a good game vs Texas last week as even tho they lost 35-6 the yardage battle was fairly even (354-292 Texas)….It’s a few too many points to lay for the better team but the Cougars haven’t managed to clear 300Y of offense in any of their L4G…..Mountaineers offense is starting to get into gear….39/34/41 since the bye week…..WV turning into an ‘over’ team…..BYU just not reliable on offense….Still believe that ‘over’ may be the best option but haven’t gotten to the window yet…..May do so later in the week.
No leanage
35. Virginia -2 Georgia Tech (56)…………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia -3
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia 29 Georgia Tech 27
These are two of the most inconsistent Power 5 teams in the country and we’ll stay clear of this BAD BOY as we don’t have a great feel for either team at the moment…..Four of Virginia’s last five games have been decided by four points or less and they’re coming off an OT loss to YOUR Miami Hurricanes…..Georgia Tech just SHOCKED the WORLD with a win over UNC but recall they also got smoked by Bowling Green and have a trash defense…..Pick your poison, yo.
No leanage
36. Utah -11 Arizona St (42)…………MEGALOCKS line – Utah -10
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 26.5 Arizona St 25.5
The Sun Devils continue to play really good football for a 2-6 (!) team and they took down Washington St last week…..Utah got drilled by Oregon last week but they’re REALLY good at home and note that before playing one of the best teams in the nation in the Ducks they’d only allowed 11/7/7/14 in five home contests…..We’d be interested in the dog if the game was in Tempe….or if the Utes were off a win…..Just not gonna step in front of an angry Utes team that plays wicked defense in Salt Lake City.
No leanage
37. UCLA -2.5 Arizona (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -3
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 26.75 Arizona 20.25
The Wildcats are 5-3 and just one win away from bowl eligibility after taking down Oregon St last week….They’ve played Washington and Oregon very tough but they’ll have their hands full with a UCLA stop unit that leads the PAC 12 in YPP D, run D, pass efficiency D, and sacks (31)…..UCLA also leads the PAC 12 in rushing but they’ve thrown too many INTs no matter who’s at QB (12 INT, worst PAC 12, #125 FBS)……..Still prefer the team with the better defense but need to mull this one over some more.
No leanage
38. Western Kentucky -8.5 UTEP (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -10
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 31.5 UTEP 23
The TOPPERS suffered a disappointing loss at the hands of Liberty last time out but they can still earn a rematch with the Flames in the conference title game if they win out…..The line looks a bit short but their defense is suspect and they’re nowhere near as explosive as they were last season…..UTEP has flashes of competence most games but they’re not a good team and tough to back without getting double digits.
No leanage
39. Southern Miss -2.5 ULM (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Southern Miss -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Southern Miss 29.5 ULM 27
One of the uglier games on the card and we’ll be RUNNING FOR THE HILLS…….These two teams are a combined 0-10 in FUN BELT play….Southern Miss had the offense wake up a bit last week (38 points vs App St)…..ULM has had a few close calls this season but has lost six straight…..The Golden Eagles have lost seven in a row after beating FCS turd Alcorn St in their opener.
No leanage
40. Penn St -8.5 Maryland (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 29.5 Maryland 21
We’ll take the bait….Penn St was demolishing the opposition before the Ohio St game…..and a small handful of those teams were in Maryland’s weight class….They didn’t look good vs Indiana to say the least but their defense is still one of the best in the nation (235 YPG, #2 FBS) and Maryland has lost three straight….two of those came vs semi-turds in Illinois and Northwestern…..Penn St is 14-3 ATS L2Y as a favorite…..They’re 7-1 ATS L8 vs FEAR THE TURTLE.
Lean – Penn St -8
Note – The consensus line is -8; It’s easy to find -8 offshore (Pinny, BetOnline, etc…..but not as easy in Vegas)
41. Iowa -5 Northwestern (31)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 18 Northwestern 13
Yes, guy…..There isn’t a major snowstorm that we know of heading to WRIGLEY FIELD ** but the total is 31….Sounds like good times……We have no interest in betting this game….Northwestern has the much better offense….Iowa has the much better defense and they’re very accustomed to winning games by 10 points in which they’re outgained something like 423-109.
** fact check: True. The game is being played at Wrigley Field. Players running out of bounds better watch out for the brick wall covered in ivy.
No leanage
42. Minnesota -2 Illinois (43)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -3
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 22.5 Illinois 20.5
Minnesota has won three of their last four games but they’ve scored just 10/12/27 L3G….The GREEK RIFLE hasn’t been very good at QB (55%, 7-7 TD to INT) and that always makes you think twice about backing the Gophers….Illinois has been a disappointment but they’ve played better the last two games (beat Maryland by 3, lost to Badgers by 4) and are desperate for a win…..Tough call between two mediocre squads.
No leanage
43. Louisiana -9 Arkansas St (60)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 34.5 Arkansas St 25.5
The Cajuns are still very much in the mix in the wide-open FUN BELT West division after upsetting South Alabama last week (+5 in t/o margin) (!) as they still have a game with Troy but they’ll have to deal with a very dangerous dual-threat QB in Arkansas St’s Jaylen Raynor….Neither team plays much defense….pointspread is in a dead zone between -7 and -10.
No leanage
44. Nevada -3.5 Hawaii (50.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Nevada -4
Vegas Implied Score – Nevada 27 Hawaii 23.5
The Pack are playing much better than anticipated but they’re still LAST in the Mountain West in YPP offense and LAST in YPP defense….Hawaii is DUMPSTER JUICE but they can still move the ball thru the air…..Looks like favorite or pass….We’ll take a seat.
No leanage
45. Utah St -2.5 San Diego St (57.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Utah St 30 San Diego 27.5
Utah St is trying to cobble together six wins to get to bowl eligibility and this is a game they really need to have….They’ve got a very dangerous offense (#1 MW total offense) but the QB play is erratic and the defense is very sketchy….The Aztecs are in the same boat as the Aggies in terms of trying to get to a bowl game (3-5) but the last time we saw them they lost 6-CACK vs Nevada….Favor the road team but would very much prefer them as the underdog and here we are.
No leanage
46. Wyoming -7 Colorado St (41)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Wyoming -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Wyoming 24 Colorado St 17
Stop us if you heard this before….but the Rams played a good game last week only to find themselves on the losing end of the scoreboard (outgained Air Force, lost 30-13)…..We don’t see much value in the line and it’s hard to trust a one-dimensional Rams team who may be without one of the best WRs in the G5 in Tory Horton….Wyoming has won 6L7 in the BATTLE FOR THE BRONZE BOOT…..Prefer the fav but would want -6.5 or better and here we are.
No leanage
47. James Madison -5.5 Georgia St (54)…………….MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 30.25 Georgia St 24.75
The Dukes continue on their quest for an undefeated season (8-0) and while we see a bit of value with the home underdog it’s impossible to ignore the match-up advantage for James Madison….They lead the nation in run defense allowing an impossible 49 (!) YPG and the Panthers are a run first team behind QB Darren Grainger and star RB Marcus Carroll (1,060, 5.4, 12 TD)…Note that the Dukes have played a number of close games….five of their eight wins have come by 8 points or less…..The last time the Panthers faced a run D like this they got smoked by Troy at home.
No leanage
48. Georgia Southern -2.5 Texas St (70.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -1
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Southern 36.5 Texas St 34
GET CHO CALCULATORS, yo….Texas St has the best offense in the Sun Belt (#2 rush, #4 pass) whilst the Eagles lead the conference is passing yards averaging well over 300 YPG…..Neither team plays much defense but it’s always tricky to take a total this high especially when both teams are prone to turnovers (Texas St #118 turnovers lost, Georgia Southern #125)…..Both teams are very much alive in their respective divisional hunts although the Bobcats need some help after losing to Troy last week…..Last team with the ball wins…..AMIRITE?
No leanage
49. Coastal Carolina -1 Old Dominion (50.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 25.75 Old Dominion 24.75
The CHANTS will be without starting QB G McCall once again but backup Jarrett Guest looked really good last week…. This is an elimination game in the FUN BELT East division as both teams are hanging on by a thread one game back of Georgia Southern…..ODU has been a money-making machine this year and have covered the number in seven consecutive conference games.
No leanage
50. FAU -1 UAB (60)…………….MEGALOCKS line – FAU -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – FAU 30.5 UAB 29.5
The Owls continue to beat up on weak teams and lose to good teams…..and if that pattern continues we’d expect a win on Saturday….particularly since they’ve got a yuuuge coaching edge in this game vs your boy Trent Dilfer….As bad as the Blazers have looked on defense they’ve scored 20+ in every game this season and note that they were competitive from a yardage standpoint vs three AAC BIG ‘UNS…..outgained Memphis (lost by 24….wat the wat?), outgained UTSA (lost by 21), and hung tough with Tulane for 4Q (lost by 12, Tulane won yardage duel 448-434).
No leanage
51. Michigan -32.5 Purdue (50.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -29
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 41.5 Purdue 9
We’ve looked too long for a reason to take the underdog….and other than the line maybe being at bit too high….we’ve come to the shocking revelation that Purdue is just like all the other piles of DOO DOO that Michigan has played so far this year….The THROW GAME is inept (6.1 YPA) and the ground game won’t get much going vs a Michigan D that ranks #1 in YPG allowed (227)….And their defense is mediocre….Minnesota is the only team to reach double-digit points (10) vs the Wolverines….Michigan has a yuuuge game with Penn St up next but gonna pick a better spot to go against Michigan than this one, yo.
No leanage
52. Louisville -9.5 Virginia Tech (48.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -10
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 29 Virginia Tech 19.5
LUA-VUH is in fine shape in terms of making the ACC title game if they can just keep their heads on straight and avoid another TURD like they laid at Pittsburgh….But here’s a FUN FACT….who’s tied with the Cards in 2nd place in the ACC??…..Yes sir, it’s Virginia Tech who’s playing a much better brand of football over the last few games….We don’t see much value in the number and whilst we’re tempted to take a shot with the improving dog it’s just a fact that LUA-VUH has been devastating at home (4-0, includes wins over Notre Dame and Duke) and Virginia Tech is 0-3 ON THE HIGHWAY.
No leanage
53. New Mexico St -3.5 MTSU (56.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – New Mexico St -5
Vegas Implied Score – New Mexico St 30 MTSU 26.5
The Aggies are right in the mix for a spot in the CUSA title game and note that the deciding game will almost certainly be the road trip to WKU next week so it’s a nasty lookahead spot….MTSU is one loss away (2-6) from missing out on a bowl game which has been commonplace under HC Rick Stockstill but note that they put up well over 500Y vs Jacksonville St (lost) and hung around for the entire game vs Liberty before they fell by a TD…..Have the Blue Raiders quit or will they show up?
No leanage
54. Appalachian St -3.5 Marshall (55.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 29.5 Marshall 26
We want nothing to do with either of these squads as they’ve both been major disappointments and the line looks spot on according to our DEEP SUN BELT INSIDERS….App St has a horrid defense (#115 FBS total defense) and their best win might be ULM (Southern Miss? Garnder-Webb? East Carolina?)…..Marshall is getting sketchy QB play and have only scored 15 total points in their L2G.
No leanage
55. Liberty -17 Louisiana Tech (59)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -14
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 38 Louisiana Tech 21
Liberty is 99.9% locked into the CUSA title game and whilst they’re 8-0 note that the schedule has been weak (#128) and they haven’t won too many games by more than 17 points thanks to a defense that’s good but vulnerable to giving up some points…..Louisiana Tech has been better than their record indicates and in their L3G they lost by 7/8/3….Before that they beat UTEP by 14 on the road.
Lean – Louisiana Tech +17 -114
Note – it’s a split market right now between +16.5/+17……You can find a +17 -110 easily in Vegas but it’s not as easy to do that offshore…..+17 -112 to -116 should be easy to grab.
56. Georgia -15.5 Missouri (55.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -14
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 35.5 Missouri 20
We’ve gone back and forth on this BAD BOY and just can’t decide which way to go…..Georgia is CRUSHING and KILLING right now and QB Carson Beck is playing at a very high level whilst the rushing attack is finally starting to look similar to what we’ve seen the last few years…..The problem is that this is their toughest game of the season and they’re going up against a very good QB who doesn’t make mistakes and one who gets the ball ON THE REGULAR to his deadly WR group…..That’s the one way you can beat the Georgia defense…..Tough call.
No leanage
57. Fresno St -2.5 Boise St (54.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -1
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 28.5 Boise St 26
This is virtual ELIMINATION GAME in the Mountain West as both teams sit a game back of Air Force who’s unblemished in conference play…..Boise’s defense has been a disappointment but the two-QB system is working OK…..The BIG deal with this handicap is the status of star Boise St Ashton Jeanty who’s one of the best players in the Group of Five…..He’s well on his way to a 1,000-yard season and he’s also the #2 receiver…..RB George Holani is back in the mix but he’s not the explosive talent that Jeanty has been……We’d wait as long as possible to bet Boise if you’re able and see if he’s good to go…..You’ll certainly see the line move in Fresno’s favor if that is the case maybe an hour or so before kickoff…..Fresno has been a bit fortunate so far this season and has been outgained in Mountain West action……Prefer the dog but not there yet.
No leanage
58. Air Force -17.5 Army (32.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 25 Army 7.5
We’ll make this simple….Air Force is wayyyy better than Army but EVERYONE knows by now the way to go most of the time in these service academy games is to take the under and the dog……Army’s run defense is hot garbage but they’ve got obvious familiarity with the way that the Falcons wanna attack you on offense……If they can find a way to get a TD they should bag the cover and thankfully QB Bryson Daily and RB Tyrell Robinson are both available (as far as we know) for this one….Air Force wins the Commander-In-Chief’s trophy if they can take down Army and a one-point win will GIT ER DONE…..The masterful Phil Steele reminds us that the dog is 20-4 ATS L24 in service academy games.
Lean – Army +17.5
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re continuing to play these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.