Texas A&M at Ole Miss
Posted November 2
The Game
We’ve got a fun match-up between a solid set of SEC West programs on Saturday afternoon as Texas A&M travels to Oxford to battle Ole Miss. The Aggies are out of the picture in terms of the SEC West race but they’re still a very talented bunch whilst the Rebels are technically still in the mix but they need need to win out (they play Georgia next) and get a bit of help. Ole Miss boasts a mark of 7-1 with their only blemish being a road loss at ROLL TIDE.
The Details
Ole Miss -3 Texas A&M (54)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ole Miss -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ole Miss 28.5 Texas A&M 25.5
Ole Miss offense vs Texas A&M defense
The Rebels rank #3 in the SEC in YPP offense and they’ve done the majority of their damage on the ground (#3 SEC rushing) behind a solid 1-2 punch of Quinshon Judkins (who’s starting to play better) and Ulysses Bentley. QB Jaxson Dart does a good job distributing the ball in the THROW GAME (64%, 14-4 TD to INT) and he’s got 7 rushing TDs on the season. Texas A&m is stout defensively overall (T1 SEC YPP D) but they can be thrown on as Miami and ROLL TIDE showed, and don’t forget that Tennessee ran the ball very well in their win over Texas A&M (232 rush yards) without a true threat of a running QB. Texas A&M has a lethal DL and the Aggies are #2 in the nation with 33 sacks and Ole Miss has had trouble protecting the passer at times. They’ve gotta find a way to get Dart to the ground and create negative plays if they wanna win this game.
Texas A&M offense vs Ole Miss defense
The Aggies have been MEH on offense this season as they rank #11 (!) in the SEC in rushing and #7 with the THROW GAME. It appears that they miss QB Conner Weigman more than people anticipated as Max Johnson is certainly not raising the level of play of the offense. The RB unit is decent but there’s no difference-maker in the group and they’re not doing a good enough job of getting the ball to their fine WR corps for whatever reason. The most underappreciated unit in the SEC just might be the Ole Miss defense (!) as only ONE team has managed to score more than 24 points on the Rebels this season (LSU) and they’ve booked a very impressive sack total (30, T5 FBS). Connor Weigman was only sacked 3 times (119 attempts) whilst your boy Max Johnson has been sacked 13 times (148 attempts).
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The intrepid Phil Steele reminds us that Ole Miss is on a 17-2 SU run at home whilst the Aggies are 7-15 SU in their last 22 true road games……It’s an early kick and the weather forecast looks great.
Summary
We’ll roll with the team with the better offense, QB, and head coach that plays really well at home. And this ain’t YO MOMMA’s Ole Miss defense.
Conclusion
Official play – Ole Miss -3 -108 <sent 4:30pm Nov 2>
Note from Week 9 Boxscore and Wagering review……..
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this season. 7-18-1 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 65-39 (62.5%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.), but as mentioned a number of weeks back, we recommend that it’s best to risk the same amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks. That’s what we’ve been doing so we suggest the same for everyone else.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.