Week 11 – Alabama at Kentucky

Alabama at Kentucky

Posted November 8

The Game


Alabama keeps cruising along in the SEC West and they’ve got full control of the division after their win over LSU last Saturday. The offense is getting better as the season moves along and the defense has been very good, but not great. Kentucky started out 4-0 with a schedule that might make Michigan blush and now have a mark of 6-3 playing for pride and the best bowl invite possible. Oh ya, and they hate Alabama, so we expect plenty of physicality in this one.

The Details

Alabama -10.5 Kentucky (48)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -13

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 29.25 Kentucky 18.75

Alabama offense vs Kentucky defense

The Tide have really started to figure things out on offense with QB Jalen Milroe who’s developed into one of the more underrated QBs in the country (65%, 13-5 TD to INT, 10.4; 9 rush TD). Milroe throws a great deep ball and whilst they don’t have an elite group of WRs it’s clear that the unit is good enough to burn you when you’re forced to pay too much attention to the run game. Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams are a solid 1-2 RB combo and note that Milroe rushed for 155 yards and 4 TD vs LSU last week. Ya, it was LSU, but there’s no doubt that Alabama has started to incorporate Milroe’s mobility more significantly into the play calling. Sacks are a major problem for the Tide (37, last SEC) but the Cats don’t have a killer pass rush. Kentucky’s stop unit has been opportunistic in terms of defensive scores but they’ve been average in terms of tackling and stopping the rushing attack vs good opponents. Georgia rushed for 173 yards allowing them to average 8.33 YPP and the Vols ran all over them for 254 yards and booked 7.18 YPP. There’s no reason why the Tide can’t get things moving on the ground and then hit some deep shots in the THROW GAME. It’ll be up to Kentucky to bag a Pick 6 and/or get some heat on the QB in order to keep the team in the game.

Kentucky offense vs Alabama defense

The Wildcats have been very inconsistent on offense (#91 FBS total offense, #85 rush, #84 pass) and it starts with the up-and-down play of QB Devin Leary (18-7 TD to INT, 58%, 7.4). They’ve got a solid THREE-HEADED MONSTER at WR (Robinson/Key/Brown) but those doods have had a case of the drops in many games this season and Leary’s frequent inaccuracy hasn’t helped the situation. RB Ray Davis is en route to a 1,000-yard season but he’s only had two 100-yard games outside of the monster performance vs Tennessee. We don’t forecast Kentucky having a ton of success with the run and we certainly think the THROW GAME will have trouble vs a stout ROLL TIDE secondary (#2 SEC pass efficiency D). Alabama’s pass rush has been heating up but Kentucky has done a good job for the most part keeping Leary clean (13 sacks, 256 attempts).

Trends, Intangibles and More!

ROLL TIDE has played the #1 (!) schedule according to the Sagarin ratings and that includes contests vs Texas A&M, Tennessee, and LSU in their L4G…..Kentucky has played the #65 schedule and five of their six wins have come vs TOMATO CANS….Ball St, E Kentucky. Akron, Vanderbilt, Mississippi St….They were blown out by Georgia (A) and Missouri (H)……It’s probably nothing but note that Kentucky QB Devin Leary was dealing with some kind of “eye issue” last week…..In the year of LATE IN THE WEEK QB NEWS SHOCKERS who knows what might happen?


Alabama is the much better team on both sides of the football and we don’t foresee a letdown on Saturday. They’re getting better as the season moves along and this version of Kentucky has been fairly underwhelming.


Official play – Alabama -10.5 -108 <sent 10:00am Nov 8>

‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.

‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.

Team totalsWe list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.