Hey everyone.
Here’s the Week 11 Boxscore and Wagering review. FBS vs FBS MATCHUPS ONLY.
Let’s go!
Boxscore review:
AAC
UTSA 34 Rice 14 – Roadrunners just keep on rolling…..381-229 yard edge, still one of three undefeated teams in the AAC (SMU, Tulane)
SMU 45 North Texas 21 – it was a game a halftime but then the Mustangs rolled 28-7 in the 2nd half….552-372 yard edge, 318 rushing yards, SMU has massive game with Memphis next Friday
Tulane 24 Tulsa 22 – the Green Wave continues to slither past gruesome opponents….Tulsa had an impossible 477-357 yard edge including 355 yards thru the air
Memphis 44 Charlotte 38 (OT) – Memphis escapes the FIGHTING BIFF POGGIS….down by 10 in the 4Q….Win in OT….430-391 yard edge for Memphis, Charlotte won the rushing yard battle 223-101….Both teams had four (!) turnovers
East Carolina 22 Florida Atlantic 7 – The disappointment continues for HOOT HOOT……The ARRRRRRRR Pirates had a 235-172 yard edge and won their first game of the year over an FBS foe
Navy 31 UAB 6 – Navy holds explosive UAB offense to six points….Note that the stat sheet was fairly even….363-321 yard edge for Navy, 269 rush yards, both teams with a pair of turnovers, Xavier Arline did a good job at QB for Navy
USF 27 Temple 23 – Bulls led 27-10 after 3Q but Temple rallied and almost got there…..451-389 yard edge for Bulls, Temple held USF to just 135 rush yards on 52 carries, Temple was (-3) in t/o and that was a killer
ACC
Clemson 42 Georgia Tech 21 – The demise of Clemson may have been greatly exaggerated……465-254 yd edge, 260 rush 205 pass, get struggling Tar Heels next
Florida St 27 Miami 20 – YOUR Miami Hurricanes held their own….won the yardage battle 335-322 and held the Noles to just 57 rushing yards….QB Emory Williams played pretty well considering the opponent and the atmosphere…..Florida St sits at 10-0 and has North Alabama and Florida left before the ACC title game
Syracuse 28 Pittsburgh 13 – The Orange break their five-game skid….and they did it the old fashioned way……Syracuse 399-269 yard edge and 389 (!) of those yards were on the ground….They only threw the ball eight times….Pitt was (-3) in t/o….Orange need one more win for a bowl bid (Georgia Tech, Wake Forest)
North Carolina 47 Duke 45 (2 OT) – Crazy game and UNC owned the yardage battle 537*-379 but needed 2-OT to take care of Duke and a backup QB…..Tams combined for 39 points in the 4Q
NC State 26 Wake Forest 6 – impressive showing for Pack as Brennan Armstrong returned at QB……D was great…..379-163 yard edge, three straight wins for NC State, get WHITE HOT Hokies next week on the road
Louisville 31 Virginia 24 – tough game for the Cards down 24-17 4Q but hit a 52-yard pass with 6 min left to tie the game and then won the game with a 73-yard run with 3 min left…..434-423 yd edge for HOOS
Virginia Tech 48 Boston College 22 – WHOA, NELLIE…..Hokies playing some of the best football in the ACC right now…..scored 35 unanswered points and are one win away from making a bowl game (NC State, Virginia)…..Virginia Tech with an impossible 600-262 yard edge….363 rush, 237 pass
Big 12
Texas 29 TCU 26 – Led 26-6 (!) at half but TCU scored 20 points in the 4Q….Longhorns had their starting QB Q Ewers back and he played well (317, 1-1 TD to INT)…..482-390 yd edge for Texas, road test at Iowa St next
Oklahoma 59 West Virginia 20 – and the Sooners are baaaaaccckkkk…..scored 14+ in every quarter….644-330 yard edge….With all the great QBs that have played at Oklahoma note that Dillon Gabriel became the first one to account for 8 total TDs (5 pass, 3 rush)….and yes….they’re still alive in the Big 12 race
Kansas St 59 Baylor 25 – blowout city, 35-13 after the first half, 451-332 yard edge but note that the Cats were +4 in t/o which made the score seem a bit worse for Baylor
Texas Tech 16 Kansas 13 – Red Raiders got up 10-0 and then Kansas lost their QB Jason Bean to injury, had to roll with their 3rd string QB, keep tabs on their QB situation this week
UCF 45 Oklahoma St 3 – WAT the WAT???……Oklahoma St was one of the hottest teams in the country and got smoked…..592-277 yard edge for UCF, 293 rush yards and 299 pass, Cowboys still in Big 12 hunt but this one stings
Iowa St 45 BYU 13 – Cyclones won the yardage battle 443-318 and were helped by +3 in t/o….They are yet another team still alive in the KOOKY Big 12
Cincinnati 24 Houston 14 – The Bearcats finally get their first Big 12 win…..Significant yardage edge 368-241 and were +2 in t/o
Big Ten
Michigan 24 Penn St 15 – 287-238 yd edge for Michigan….14-9 at half….led 24-9 late….Penn St TD with 2 min left….Fun fact: Wolverines didn’t have an official pass attempt in the 2nd half…..Your boy James Franklin is always good for SIMPLE JACK maneuvers in big games and this time it was failing to understand when to go for two points
Ohio St 38 Michigan St 3 – no contest as expected, 530-182 yard edge, nice game for QB Kyle McCord 335 yards and 3 TD 0 INT, good to see THROW GAME get revved up a bit with Michigan looming on the schedule in two weeks
Maryland 13 CORN 10 – sloppy game….8 turnovers (5 by CORN)….Terps won the yardage contest convincingly 384-269 but needed last play FG to win….Nebraska still needs a win to get to a bowl game (Wisconsin, Iowa)…..Horrid QB play for Huskers and note that Heinrich “SAY HIS NAME” Haarberg left the game due to injury
Iowa 22 Rutgers 0 – impressive win for the Hawkeyes…..massive 402-127 yard edge and note that they actually THREW for 223 yards! #MiraclesDoHappen…..Iowa all but guaranteed to represent the West in the Big Ten Championship Game
Illinois 48 Indiana 45 (OT) – where did these points come from?….crazy game…..662-451 yard edge for Illinois…Backup QB John Paddock threw for 507 yards and 4 TD (1 INT)
Purdue 49 Minnesota 30 – and where did THESE points come from?…..Gophers actually score 30 points but give up 49 to Purdue…..BOILER UP with 604-407 yard edge, 353 yards on the ground….Minnesota still needs to win a game to get a bowl bid (Northwestern, Indiana)
Northwestern 24 Wisconsin 10 – Yes, guy….Another upset for the Cats and they’re just one win away from a bowl bid (Purdue, Illinois)…….Led 24-3 at half and Badgers had no response…..Wisconsin 341-324 yard edge, had starting QB Tanner Mordecai back at the controls and it didn’t matter much
Conference USA
New Mexico St 38 Western Kentucky 29 – The Aggies book a date with Liberty in the CUSA title game!….Tie game at the half and then the TOPPERS went GLUG GLUG GLUG….WKU had 437-361 yard edge….NM St +1 in t/o margin….Even game, Aggies bag the big win
MTSU 40 FIU 6 – Blue Raiders haven’t quit despite having seven losses….up 31-6 at the half….427-277 yard edge for MTSU
Liberty 38 Old Dominion 10 – Flames are now 10-0!….up 35-3 at half….455-280 yard edge
Sam Houston 42 Louisiana Tech 27 – Yes, guy….the Bearkats get their first win over an FBS foe this season…..Misleading final alert…..The Bulldogs were 501-413 in the yardage department but (-4) (!) in turnovers
Independents
< see detail in conference sections >
MAC
Toledo 49 Eastern Michigan 23 – Rockets clinch a berth in the MAC title game!……508-255 yard edge…..They move to 9-1 on the season and could easily be 10-0 (lost opener at Illinois by 2)
Ball St 20 Northern Illinois 17 – Cardinals are playing some scrappy football with no passing game….pull off the MACtion upset with a last second FG….Yardage battle was even (315-301 for NIU) but the Huskies were (-3) in t/o margin
Western Michigan 38 Central Michigan 28 – Broncos finishing the season strong…..Note that they led 21-7 at the half…..FIRE UP CHIPS scored 21 straight points in the 3Q…..Broncos say HOLD MY BEER and score the final 17 points of the game…..333Y passing for WM QB Hayden Wolff……484-418 yd edge for Broncos
Ohio 20 Buffalo 10 – The Bobcats grind another one out…..Bulls led 3-0 at the half….Bobcats owned the 2nd half….Bulls with 295-236 yard edge but couldn’t sustain 1st half success
Miami 19 Akron 0 – Very conservative game plan for the Redhawks…..236-212 yd edge….Suffocating defense, 2nd shutout of the season and 3rd time they’ve allowed three or fewer points
Bowling Green 49 Kent St 19 – Falcons are going bowling!….476-358 yard edge
Mountain West
Boise St 42 New Mexico 14 – Broncos were up 15-14 early 2Q and then pulled away BIGLY…..484-323 yard edge for Broncos, New Mexico is starting to implode
Hawaii 27 Air Force 13 – WOWWWWWW….Falcons lose back-to-back games as yuuuge favorites and have now made the Mountain West race a lot more interesting…..Air Force could only manage 201 yards rushing vs a bad defense….315-297 yard edge for Falcons, two tough games left (UNLV, Boise St)
Colorado St 22 San Diego St 19 – the Rams held on but it had no business being close….HC Jay Norvell could LITERALLY be SIMPLE JACK when it comes to game management…..427-273 yard edge for Rams but 11 penalties and (-1) in turnovers, still alive for bowl game!
UNLV 34 Wyoming 14 – Rebels up 21-CACK early and then Wyoming woke up but it was too late….397-297 yard edge for Rebels and they’re looking good in the Mountain West race!
San Jose St 42 Fresno St 18 – WHOA, NELLIE….Spartans playing rock solid right now….Still lingering in the conference hunt…..459-308 yard edge, 313-83 in the rushing department
Utah St 41 Nevada 24 – Aggies one win away from a bowl game….474-347 yard edge including 292 yards on the ground
PAC 12
Oregon 36 USC 27 – 552-379 yd edge for Ducks, led 36-14 in the 4Q, USC treated Oregon +16 and similar backers with some unwanted BACKDOOR ACTION……scored final 2 TDs of the game
Washington 35 Utah 28 – Utes led 28-24 at half but did not score in the 2nd half…..Excellent 2nd half adjustments for Huskies…..457-382 yard edge for Washington
Oregon St 62 Stanford 17 – Blowout city….Beavers getting ready for Washington next week!…..598-324 yard edge and they were +4 in t/o margin
Arizona St 17 UCLA 7 – Sun Devils SHOCK the WORLD…..Bruins had to go with 3rd string QB…..Sun Devils went with hobbled starter…..3-0 Arizona St at the half…..300-250 yard edge for UCLA but they were 3-15 on 3rd/4th down
California 42 Washington St 39 – both teams now 4-6 with bowl hopes looking a bit grim…..Misleading final…..483-327 yard edge for COOGS but they turned the ball over four times (-2 t/o)
Arizona 34 Colorado 31 – tough one for the Buffs, they played well but lost on last play FG…..They’ve now lost 6L7 games…..421-339 yard edge for Wildcats, 207 rush 214 pass
SEC
ROLL TIDE 49 Kentucky 21 – Tide got the jump 28-7 and it was all over….QB Jalen Milroe continues to play well…..3 passing TD, 3 rushing TD, note that he was a bit gimpy during the game but it doesn’t look like any kind of serious injury…..444-253 yd edge for Alabama
LSU 52 Florida 35 – Nobody in history had even passed for 350+ yard and rushed for 250+ yards until yesterday…..QB Jayden Daniels threw for 372Y and 3 TD and rushed for 234Y and 2 more TD……MEGALOCKS HEISMAN CLUB happy to hear that…..LSU put up over 700 yards of offense….329 rush 372 pass…..701-488 yd edge…. most yards ever allowed by Florida
Texas A&M 51 Mississippi St 10 – 396-237 yd edge for Aggies, up 34-10 at half, played with 3rd string QB Jaylen Henderson who looked decent…..Bulldogs (-4) in t/o margin
Georgia 52 Mississippi 17 – WOW- was a 14-14 game and then it was all DAWGS…..611-352 yd edge….Brock Bowers played but they sure didn’t need him with all the other weapons stepping up….Check status of Ole Miss QB J Dart who left the game due to injury
Missouri 36 Tennessee 7 – big game from the Tigers after the loss to Georgia….total domination…..530-350 yard edge and held the Vols to 83 yards on the ground
Auburn 48 WOO PIG 10 – WHOA, NELLIE….Auburn puts it on the Hogs….up 21-3 early….517-255 yard edge….Auburn won the rushing battle 354-130
South Carolina 47 Vanderbilt 6 – COCKS with 487-234 yard edge, keep their bowl hopes alive, finish with Kentucky and Clemson
Sun Belt
Appalachian St 42 Georgia St 14 – Mountaineers win their 3rd straight game whilst the Panthers lose their 3rd consecutive game…..and they’ve lost two in a row by the same score of 42-14…..509-260 yard edge for App St, total domination
Marshall 38 Georgia Southern 33 – Herd put a damper on the Eagles’ divisional hopes…..back and forth most of game….Marshall takes late 38-26 lead and Eagles could only get one more score….384-370 yard edge for Eagles and they were +2 in t/o, a game they could’ve won and it’ll sting for a while
Coastal Carolina 31 Texas St 23 – CHANTS win their 5th in a row and they did it once again with 3rd string QB Ethan Vasko…..347-280 yard edge, held the mighty Bobcats offense in check, it’s been percolating for a while but Coastal Carolina finally controls their own destiny in the FUN BELT East
James Madison 44 UConn 6 – The Dukes are now 10-0!…..503-319 yard edge for JM, just 46 rushing yards but 457 passing!
South Alabama 21 Arkansas St 14 – both teams now 5-5 and on the cusp of a bowl trip…..Red Wolves treat South Alabama +14.5 and similar backers with some nasty BACKDOOR ACTION……21-6 late, Arkansas St bag late TD on 46-yard pass
Troy 45 ULM 14 – up 21-CACK at the half and rolled from there….Note that the Trojans had just a 346-309 yardage edge, Trojans book a seat in the Sun Belt title game!
Southern Miss 34 Louisiana 31 – very entertaining game, back-and-forth, Cajuns playing with backup QB, Golden Eagles win it in OT with a TD after Cajuns hit a FG……SM RB Frank Gore 33-158 2 TD, each team with 390 total yards
Betting review
Big plays
ROLL TIDE -10.5 (W)
Oregon -15.5 (L)
Leans
5-4
Win – Michigan, California over, Utah, San Jose St, Georgia
Lose – Kansas, Tennessee, North Texas, ODU,
Season Win Total Club
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this season. 9-19-2 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 74-48 (61%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.), but as mentioned a number of weeks back, we recommend that it’s best to risk the same amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks. That’s what we’ve been doing so we suggest the same for everyone else.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
Season Win Total Club
UMass over 2 – Winner.
Virginia Tech over 5.5 – Starting to play very well. Got their 5th win this week. Just need one more.
Colorado St over 4.5 – Held on to take down San Diego St. Just need one more.
Kentucky over 7 – Sitting at 6-4. They should be able to at least get a push but you never know.
Tulane under 9.5 – One loss in the bag. Another close shave win this week. Need to lose their final two games. Very unlikely, but not impossible. A priest has been contacted.
Akron over 3.5 – Must win their final two games. Eastern Michigan is very doable. Ohio could sleepwalk in a meaningless game in the final week. You can dream, yo.
UConn over 5 – This ticket can be used as a beer coaster or toilet paper.
Futures and Props Club
Sun Belt Champion – Coastal Carolina at +550 leads the East division thanks to the tiebreaker vs Appalachian St. James Madison is not eligible to win the conference.
MAC Champion – Toledo at +180 has won the West. Miami Ohio at +803 has almost clinched the East.
ACC Champion – Florida St at +175 is a LOCK to make the title game.
PAC 12 Champion – USC is now DEEEED.
CUSA Champion – Western Kentucky is now DEEEED.
SEC West Champion – We didn’t have ROLL TIDE.
Mountain West Champion – Boise St needs a lot of help but they still have a game with Air Force. San Jose St is still breathing at a big price and we’re hoping that their final game with UNLV means something.
AAC Champion – SMU at +320 is in good shape to reach the AAC Championship Game. They’ve got a yuuuge game with Memphis this Saturday!
National Champion – Georgia looks like the best team in the country. Texas (+2500) is still alive. Oregon at +1400 needs to win the PAC 12 and go from there.
Heisman Trophy winner – M Penix (+600) and Bo Nix (+2000) are currently the top-two favorites in offshore markets. Jayden Daniels (+1129) is the third choice. Looks pretty good, yo.
Cheers and enjoy Week 12!