Week 11 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
Handy index: Quick Takes
“Official” picks in blue. Small plays/Leans in green.
No more additions/changes!
- Akron at Miami Ohio (Wednesday)
- Eastern Michigan at Toledo (Wednesday)
- Bowling Green at Kent St (Wednesday)
- Virginia at Louisville (Thursday)
- Southern Miss at Louisiana (Thursday)
- Mississippi St at Texas A&M
- Vanderbilt at South Carolina
- FIU at MTSU
- Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech
- Michigan St at Ohio St
- Maryland at CORN
- Indiana at Illinois
- Ohio at Buffalo (Tuesday)
- Ball St at Northern Illinois (Tuesday)
- Central Michigan at Western Michigan (Tuesday)
- Washington St at California (added Thursday 11:37am)
- Stanford at Oregon St
- Baylor at Kansas St
- Iowa St at BYU
- Duke at UNC
- NC State at Wake Forest
- Tulsa at Tulane
- New Mexico at Boise St
- Air Force at Hawaii
- UConn at James Madison
- Troy at ULM
- Texas at TCU
- Texas Tech at Kansas
- Oklahoma St at UCF
- Rutgers at Iowa
- Syracuse vs Pittsburgh
- Georgia Tech at Clemson
- Miami at Florida St
- Tennessee at Missouri
- Florida at LSU
- Virginia Tech at Boston College
- Arizona at Colorado
- Utah at Washington
- Cincinnati at Houston
- Fresno St at San Jose St
- Nevada at Utah St
- Arizona St at UCLA
- Rice at UTSA
- Minnesota at Purdue
- UAB at Navy
- New Mexico St at WKU
- San Diego St at Colorado St
- Auburn at WOO PIG
- Temple at USF
- Texas St at Coastal Carolina
- Memphis at Charlotte
- Wyoming at UNLV (Friday)
- North Texas at SMU (Friday)
- East Carolina at FAU
- West Virginia at Oklahoma
- Appalachian St at Georgia St
- Georgia Southern at Marshall
- Arkansas St at South Alabama
- Northwestern at Wisconsin
- Old Dominion at Liberty (updated 4:22 pm Friday)
- Ole Miss at Georgia
- USC at Oregon
QUICK TAKES
1. Miami Ohio -17 Akron (43)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -16
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 30 Akron 13
Akron pulled off a miracle WAGON WHEEL win over Kent St last week and are playing out the string (2-7)….They could have a few more wins but they suffered a few heartbreaking losses and have been playing the last number of games with backup QB THE UNDERCUFFLER (4-6 TD to INT)…..Miami just needs to keep winning to make the MAC title game….Their D is great and they lead the conference in run D in MAC game (95 YPG)….Akron is last (188 YPG) which isn’t good when facing the Redhawks who don’t have much of a THROW GAME…..Road team has covered five in a row….Line looks about right.
No leanage
2. Toledo -19 Eastern Michigan (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -17
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 32.5 Eastern Michigan 13.5
The Eagles have the #132 (!) offense in the nation and they’ll be going up against the #4 defense in the MAC….Not to mention the #1 pass efficiency D (52%, 8-10 TD to INT)…..Toledo has the #1 offense in the MAC and should be able to name the score BUT note that Eastern Michigan HC Chris Creighton is 32-14 ATS (!) as a road dog (3-1 this year) and the Eagles have covered 6L7 in the series…..Also Toledo is basically home and cooled in terms of the division…..Rockets have a yuuuge talent edge….Angles/situation favor the Eagles……Line looks a titch high….Prefer the road dog but haven’t gotten to the window yet.
No leanage
3. Bowling Green -8 Kent St (41)…………MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 24.5 Kent St 16.5
The Falcons have won three in a row and four of their last five including a win over Georgia Tech (!) but we suppose that was a while ago….In any event they’re 5-4 and need one more win for bowl eligibility….They have been very inconsistent on offense but the defense is #2 in the conference in YPP in MAC games….Kent St is horrible and they blew the rivalry game vs Akron last week….FUN FACT – Kent St has won five in a row vs the Falcons…..We are waiting on key injury news….Underrated game in that respect much like the Troy/South Alabama game last week (QB probably wasn’t gonna go, BAD for Jags) and the Boise St game last week (no Jeanty, no tickee tickee)….Kent St may be without their best offensive weapon in WR BIG PLAY MCCRAY……Bowling Green may be without their best offensive player in RB Terion Stewart……No play for now but we’ll be watching to see if any trustworthy news pops up…..The mobsters will know first so if the line pops to -10 you’ll know why….Then we can reevaluate.
No leanage
4. Louisville -20.5 Virginia (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -19
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 36 Virginia 15.5
No interest in getting down on this BAD BOY…..LUA-VUH is well on their way to the ACC title game (what could possibly go wrong?) and the defense has allowed three total points L2G…..Virginia is DUMPSTER JUICE and just got destroyed at home by Georgia Tech…..They’ve also got seven losses….No bowl game for YOU….Fav or pass and we’ll take a seat.
No leanage
5. Louisiana -12 Southern Miss (53.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 32.75 Southern Miss 20.75
The Golden Eagles have looked much better the last two weeks hanging with Appalachian St and beating ULM but they’re still 2-7 with only one win over an FBS squad….The Cajuns are 5-4 and one win away from bowl eligibility….They followed up their impressive road win with a clunker at Arkansas St (L 37-17)…. The BIGGEST (and bad) news is the injury to Cajuns’ rising star QB Z Chriss who may have a broken fibula…..No official word at press time so we’re hoping for the best.
No leanage
6. Texas A&M -19 Southern Miss (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -18
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 31.75 Mississippi St 12.75
This is one of the more disgusting games on the board from a handicapping perspective…..Texas A&M is nearing the end of a lost season (5-4) and not sure where the motivation lies for this game…..They also might be without QB Max Johnson (ribs) but we’re still waiting on news as of press time….That would mean a 3rd string QB gets the call….Mississippi St looked like trash last week vs Kentucky and will have trouble running the ball in this one…..Fav or pass and we can’t lay it as of now.
No leanage
7. South Carolina -14 Vanderbilt (58)…………..MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -14
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 36 Vanderbilt 22
The COCKS once again showed whey they stink last week (like we needed more proof) as they struggled to beat Jacksonville St at home despite being +3 in the turnover department…..Vanderbilt is RAW SEWAGE but at least they give max effort almost every game and this is their final realistic chance to book a win over an FBS team (at Tennessee in their last game)…..South Cackalacky has won 13 straight in the series and covered 7L8.
No leanage
8. MTSU -11.5 FIU (53)…………..MEGALOCKS line – MTSU -10
Vegas Implied Score – MTSU 32.25 FIU 20.75
The Blue Raiders dropped their 7th game last week and watched their bowl hopes go GLUG GLUG GLUG….They’re the much better team but you have to question their motivation….Meanwhile as bad as the FIU roster may be they still have four wins and can slither into a bowl game behind their crafty HC Mike MacIntyre…..Note that the home team has covered 8L10 in the series.
No leanage
9. Louisiana Tech -7.5 Sam Houston (48.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana Tech -7
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana Tech 28 Sam Houston 20.5
The BEARKATS have yet to win a game vs an FBS team but they’ll had several close calls and despite being 0-5 in CUSA play they’ve only been outscored 153-118 in those games…..The Bulldogs are yet another team with seven losses and not much to play for at this point BUT they can SCORE the FOOTBALL and this is their home finale.
No leanage
10. Ohio St -31.5 Michigan St (47)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -28.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 39.25 Michigan St 7.75
The Buckeyes struggled mightily with Rutgers (!) last week but thankfully no matter how much the offense struggles that defense is….WHOA, NELLIE….pretty good….Michigan St took down CORN last week but they’ve failed to cover the last six vs Ohio St and we don’t see them scoring more than 7-10 points….Can Ohio St get to the high-30s?…..Probably, but we’ll pass on this one.
No leanage
11. Maryland -1.5 CORN (45)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 23.25 CORN 21.75
Speaking of CORN….They had a chance to achieve bowl eligibility last week but decided to keep the drama going for another week as they lost a close one at Michigan St…..The turnover bug reared it’s ugly head (-3) but now they come home to face a Maryland squad that’s reeling after losing their 4th consecutive game….This feels like a toss-up but there’s a good chance that CORN makes our ML underdog list as long as the MOBSTERS don’t hammer the Huskers during the week and push them to favorite status…..unlikely but not impossible.
No leanage
12. Illinois -6.5 Indiana (43.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -8
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 25 Indiana 18.5
Illinois came up with an improbable win last week at Minnesota when backup QB John Paddock threw a 46-yard TD pass with under a minute left to bag the win….We see “value” on the home team but the status of QB Luke Altmyer is still in doubt as we approach press time….Indiana SHOCKED the WORLD last Saturday when they took down Wisconsin….They’re still horrible tho….scrappy….but horrible…..They may have found something at QB with something called a Brendan Sorsby but it’s still too early to know.
No leanage
13. Ohio -7 Buffalo (44)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 25.5 Buffalo 18.5
Both teams are one game behind Miami Ohio in the MAC East standings……Ohio needs help given their loss to the Redhawks and Buffalo needs to keep winning and hope for the best…..The Bulls also sit at 3-6 and are on the EDGE of the CLIFF in terms of bowl eligibility….This has definitely been a home team series (11-1 SU / 10-2 ATS run) but the Bobcats have and excellent defense (#1 MAC total defense, #4 FBS!) whilst the Buffalo stop unit is ranked #10 in the MAC……Ohio hasn’t been as explosive on offense this season but the Bulls defense will allow them to have some success…..On the other side, the Bulls’ THROW GAME has been struggling (14-11 TD to INT) and QB Cole Snyder is averaging an impossibly low 5.4 YPA on the season…..Stats say Ohio, trends say Buffalo…..Tough call…..Will revisit briefly again early afternoon…..UPDATE….line up to -7.5….slightly favor the home team but can’t go against one of the stingiest stop units in the country…..GL if you partake in the action.
No leanage
14. Northern Illinois -9 Ball St (43)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 26 Ball St 17
The Huskies got off to a slow start vs Central Michigan last week (down 24-3 at half) and couldn’t come all the way back (L 37-31)…..Their run defense was ripped apart for one of the few times thanks to the Chippewas’ mobile QB and Ball St also has a very mobile QB in Kiael Kelly….The problem is that Ball St is almost completely one-dimensional on offense relying on the rushing attack…..Can they hang around all game with that offensive receipe with a so-so defense?……The Huskies are fighting for a bowl spot and need two wins…..Ball St’s season is down the tubes.
No leanage
15. Western Michigan -3 Central Michigan (56.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Western Michigan -3
Vegas Implied Score – Western Michigan 29.75 Central Michigan 26.75
It doesn’t get better than this, yo….We’ve got the VICTORY CANNON TROPHY on the line as well as the MICHIGAN MAC TROPHY….Both teams beat Eastern Michigan so that means the winner is KING OF MICHIGAN for at least a year…..This is yet another one with major conflicting signals….The Broncos are the better team (more balanced on offense, defenses are about equal) and have played the tougher schedule but the visitor has won the last 10 (!!) games in the series…..That’s a tough pill to swallow if you wanna back the Broncos…..FIRE UP CHIPS rushed for well over 300Y last week but their offense might have been helped by the slippery field conditions and how long go you go with the two-play offense ?…..Run QB, fake run QB and give to RB…..This should be a good one! Not sure what do do with it from a betting standpoint yet…..Update – line holding solid at -3….Was initially leaning to FIRE UP CHIPS but they’ve really only played one decent half of football since maybe September (FH vs NIU).
No leanage
16. California -1.5 Washington St (59.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – California 30.5 Washington St 29
This game is definitely one of the most hideous creations of the weekend…..The fascists from Berkeley are 1-5 in PAC 12 action and 3-6 overall….They’ve lost four straight games and allowed 52/34/50/63 in the process….Washington St says HOLD MY WARM BEER as they’ve lost FIVE consecutive contests including last week’s home loss to Stanford (yikes)….Home team has won 5L6 SU.
No leanage
UPDATE – 11:37am
Cal has allowed 50+ in 4L6G….They’re #124 in pass efficiency D…..Washington St is #2 in the nation in passing offense….Five of their nine games have gone over 59.5 including 2L3…..The Cougars rank #110 in total defense
Over 59.5
17. Oregon St -21 Stanford (54.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -18
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 37.75 Stanford 16.75
The Beavers are still very much alive in the PAC 12 race as they’ve got a pair of conference losses BUT there are still games to be played vs Washington and Oregon (!)……It looks like a few too many points to lay in this contest but they’ve been excellent (and undefeated) at home whilst booking a 14-point win over Utah and a 12-point win over UCLA…..Stanford is better than we thought (wins over Buffs and Washington St) but they’re also prone to getting blown out…..The Cardinal are 8-4-1 ATS L13 vs the Beavers.
No leanage
18. Kansas St -20.5 Baylor (55.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 38 Baylor 17.5
You’ll pay a bit of a premium to back the Cats but that’s probably the only way to go in this one….Baylor’s season is SWIRLING the DRAIN (3-6) and you have to think that HC Dave Aranda’s BITS AND PIECES are getting toasty on the HOT SEAT….This is a big rise in class for the Bears after playing Cincinnati (W), Iowa St (L), and Houston (L)…..Kansas St suffered a tough OT loss at Texas last week and are in rough shape in terms of defending their Big 12 title….but who knows what happens if they win out??…..This will almost certainly be a blowout but note that the visitor has covered 7 (!) straight in the series.
No leanage
19. Iowa St -6.5 BYU (42.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Iowa St -5
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa St 24.5 BYU 18
Iowa St continues to fire random outings of WE’RE GOOD! and WE SHAT THE BED!……They suffered a disappointing home loss at the hands of the Jayhawks last week and now have to travel to a tough place to play…..BYU has found a way to scrape together five wins but that elusive sixth win could be tough to snag if they don’t get this one…..(Sooners, Cowboys to end the year)….It appears as tho BYU may have to go with their backup QB once again but it’s not a big drop to Jake Retzlaff and maybe he gives them a spark?
No leanage
20. UNC -12.5 Duke (50.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – UNC -10
Vegas Implied Score – UNC 31.5 Duke 19
It’s sad to think that the Tar Heels probably wasted a legitimate shot to play for an ACC Championship (with an NFL QB) by losing back-to-back games vs Georgia Tech and Virginia, but here we are…..Their defense is getting worse by the minute whilst Duke plays good defense AND is very well coached….The problem?….The Duke QB situation is a BLACK HOLE without star QB Riley Leonard doing his thing……Fav or pass, we’ll say ‘no thanks’, yo.
No leanage
21. NC State -2.5 Wake Forest (44.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – NC State -1
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 23.5 Wake Forest 21
The Pack sit at 6-3 after back-to-back wins over Clemson (!) and YOUR Miami Hurricanes but they only tallied 202/231 yards of offense in those two games and they were +4 in t/o margin…..Wake needs to win two of their L3G to make a bowl game and given that one of those contests is on the road vs the Irish they probably needs this one….They just played a good game at Duke (L 24-21) and note that the home team is 14-2 ATS L16 in the series….Definitely prefer the dog will see if a +3 pops up during the week.
No leanage
22. Tulane -23 Tulsa (53.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -21
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 33.25 Tulsa 10.25
The Green Wave have narrowly escaped some LAND MINES are still one of three undefeated teams in the AAC (UTSA, SMU)…..They struggled vs ARRRRRRRRRRRRRR the Pirates last week but had a significant yardage edge and just couldn’t turn those yards into points…..Tulsa’s season is imploding right before our eyes and they’re not a team you should be backing at the windows right now…..Note that Tulane has two yuuuge games on deck (at FAU, UTSA) that’ll determine whether or not they get to defend their conference hardware.
No leanage
23. Boise St -25 New Mexico (60.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -23
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 42.75 New Mexico 17.75
The Broncos fell out of the Mountain West race last race with a loss at Fresno St but you’d like to think that they’ve still got some pride left in that locker room….They can still make a bowl game with wins over New Mexico and Utah St (Air Force will be a lot trickier) and this one should be a cakewalk……It just doesn’t seem like a good idea to trust an offense with a pair of mediocre QBs and who knows if star RB A Jeanty gets to play?…..The Lobos can move the ball but they won’t provide much resistance on defense…..Looks like a 20-30 point win for the Broncos.
No leanage
24. Air Force -19 Hawaii (47.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -20
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 33.25 Hawaii 14.25
The Falcons are in a theoretical yuuuuge letdown spot after losing to Army 23-3 whilst turning the ball over an impossible SIX TIMES during that defeat….The good news is that they’re still alone atop the Mountain West as we approach press time and just need to hold serve to get a shot to play for a conference championship…..They’ve got the #1 rushing offense in the nation (284 YPG) and will be able to move the ball on Hawaii without issue….Hawaii’s offense isn’t bad and they showed some life (and balance) in the road win over Nevada last week….Air Force hasn’t played a home game since October 14th and could be a bit road weary.
No leanage
25. James Madison -24.5 UConn (48.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -26.5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 36.5 UConn 12
The Dukes continue to CRUSH and KILL and they roll into this one off a demolition of a good Georgia St team (W 42-14)….They’re 9-0 and have petitioned the NCAA (again) to try and get into a bowl game…..They might sleepwalk a bit thru this one given that they’ve got App St and Coastal Carolina on deck and note that they lost one of the best defensive players in college football to a season-ending injury…..Jalen Green leads the nation in sacks (15.5) and TFL and will undergo surgery….Best wishes for the young man to make a quick and full recovery!….The Huskies’ season is over but they’re well-coached and we’re playing decent football before the SMACKDOWN in Knoxville (L 59-3).
No leanage
26. Troy -21.5 ULM (45.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Troy -19
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 33.5 ULM 12
Troy laid a WHOOPING on South Alabama last week (W 28-10) as the Jags had to play with their 2nd string QB but more importantly they’ve essentially sewn up the West division of the FUN BELT….They’ve won six in a row and allowed just 7/3/0/13/10 L5G….They’ve only exceeded 31 points once this year vs an FBS foe so this is a tricky number to cover given that ULM has been known to jump up and bite people at home from time to time.
No leanage
27. Texas -10 TCU (54)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Texas -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 32 TCU 22
Texas is definitely in SURVIVE and ADVANCE mode and we’re not interested in laying double digits when they’re playing with a backup QB in a hostile road environment….The good news is that their defense is still REALLY good (#2 Big 12 YPP) and TCU is down several notches from LY’s squad that made the CFP playoff.
No leanage
28. Kansas -3.5 Texas Tech (61)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 32.5 Texas Tech 29
We’ll roll with the better team who happens to be undefeated at home and their only two losses came on the road to Texas (!) and the JUGGERNAUT that is Oklahoma St……Texas Tech has four wins…..Tarleton St, Houston, Baylor, TCU…..essentially a TRASH HEAP….Kansas has the much better offense (#2 Big 12 YPP; Texas Tech #11) and whilst Texas Tech has the better statistical defense they don’t do a good job of achieving PENETRATION…..NOTE however that we are PEEING INTO THE WIND on this pick from a trends perspective…..The Red Raiders have won 15L16 matchups…..Join us if you dare.
Lean – Kansas -3.5
29. Oklahoma St -2.5 UCF (64.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 33.5 UCF 31
We see some “value” with the Pokes but they’re coming off one of the biggest wins in recent memory taking down mighty Oklahoma in the final BEDLAM game…..So we hate the spot and note that during their five-game winning streak FOUR of those games were at home…..Now they travel to Florida for the first time in almost 20 years to face an explosive UCF team….Thankfully for Oklahoma St the Knights are disgusting vs the run (#127) and star RB Ollie Gordon should go FREAKY FREAKY ALL NIGHT LONG…..UCF is 1-5 in Big 12 action.
No leanage
30. Iowa -1 Rutgers (29)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -3
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 15 Rutgers 14
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.
The analysis could end right there. A total of 29.
Well, once again we see some value with the home team but Iowa has scored 15/10/10 L3G…..but of course they’ve won two of those contests because IOWA does IOWA things…..They’re tough to beat at home but they are DEAD LAST (#133) in total offense….Rutgers can definitely win this one but we have no interest at this short price.
No leanage
31. Pittsburgh -3 Syracuse (37.5)…………..MEGALOCKS line – Pitt -1
Vegas Implied Score – Pittsburgh 20.25 Syracuse 17.25
Syracuse HC Dino Babers decided to be like one of the COOL KIDS and disguise his starting QB injury until shortly before kickoff last week….hey, we’ll take it, but this is becoming more of an epidemic than going out of the shotgun on 4th and inches and losing two yards every time….Pitt is HOT GARBAGE (2-7) and have only beaten one FBS team…..but that was Louisville (wat the wat?)…..The Orange have lost five straight and their season is imploding like an ill-fated SUBMARINE…..The game is at Yankee Stadium which is pretty cool but too bad these teams stink.
No leanage
32. Clemson -14 Georgia Tech (55.5) …………..MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 34.75 Georgia Tech 20.75
In a game of offense (GT #2 ACC rush, #4 pass) vs defense (Clemson #1 ACC YPP) we almost always prefer backing the team with the BRICK WALL stop unit….Clemson just beat Notre Dame but the offense didn’t look that great….The good news for Clemson is that the Yellow Jackets defense is disgusting and they rank in the bottom three in the ACC in YPP D, run D, pass efficiency D, sacks, and TFL/game…..RB W Shipley should be back for Clemson FWIW…..Prefer the home team but you can’t deny how well Georgia Tech QB Haynes King has played this year (22 TD passes, 545 rush yards, 5 TD)…..Not down on this BAD BOY yet need to let it simmer.
No leanage
33. Florida St -14 Miami (50) …………..MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -13
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 32 Miami 18
The dog has done very well in this series as of late covering 13 of the last 18 but it’s really hard to trust YOUR Miami Hurricanes with QB Tyler Van Dyke struggling the way that he has lately…..It’s definitely due in large part to an injury (injuries) and a lack of confidence and note that he’s got a brutal 0-5 TD to INT mark in his L2G…..5-10 in his L4G….Meanwhile Florida St has one of the best QBs in college football and they don’t make mistakes like Miami does (#16 FBS turnover margin; Miami #99)….Miami could keep it close for a while if they use their MEAT GRINDER offense and slow the game down….Prefer the home team but you aren’t getting them cheap, yo.
No leanage
34. Tennessee -1 Missouri (58.5) …………..MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 29.75 Missouri 28.75
The Vols have been really good since the loss to Florida….They took down Texas A&M….outgained ROLL TIDE on the road but lost…..beat Kentucky on the road….and then destroyed UConn….They’ve rushed for 230+ yards 5L6 games and they should be able to move the ball well vs the Missouri run defense…..Tennessee has scored 66/62 (!) L2G vs the Tigers but they obviously won’t get to that number on Saturday….Missouri spilled their guts out last week in a loss to Georgia and may be without star WR Luther Burden for this one….he’ll at least be limited in what he can do in terms of stretching the field.
Lean – Tennessee ML -116
35. LSU -14 Florida (63) …………..MEGALOCKS line – LSU -12
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 38.5 Florida 24.5
Tough to make a play on this game without knowing the status of superstar QB Jayden Daniels who suffered “concussion-like symptoms” last week….He’ll be a limited participant in practice on Wednesday and we’ll see how things go…..Garrett Nussmeier is a talented backup but he’s no Daniels with his legs and LSU’s stop unit is still a TRASH HEAP……Florida’s defense has taken a nasty detour to TURD TOWN as they’ve allowed 39/43/39 L3G.
No leanage
36. Virginia Tech -1.5 Boston College (49) …………..MEGALOCKS line – Boston College -1
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 25.25 Boston College 23.75
It’s hard to make a case for either team….Boston College has sputtered on offense the last two weeks and they’ve got a serious CLUSTER of injuries at RB which may explain why the Hokies are a small favorite…..Virginia Tech has been playing better football since late September but they’ve yet to win a road game vs a Power 5 opponent under HC Brent Pry.
No leanage
37. Arizona -10.5 Colorado (55) …………..MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 32.75 Colorado 22.25
The Wildcats are one of the best stories of the 2023 season as they sit at 6-2 and in a four-way tie for 3rd place in the PAC 12 standings….They’ve covered the spread in each of their last five games and the market appears to be finally catching up with how well they’ve played…Colorado has been struggling since their hot start but note that they got the money in each of their last two games with some SWEET BACK DOOR ACTION….TDs with about 2 min left in losses vs Oregon St and UCLA.
No leanage
38. Washington -9.5 Utah (51) …………..MEGALOCKS line – Washington -8
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 30.25 Utah 20.75
We’ll take a stab on the Utes to be competitive in this game as Washington has not impressed us in their L3G…..outgained by Arizona St and didn’t score an offensive TD (won by 8)…..outgained by Stanford (!) (win by 9)……give up 500Y to USC (win by 10)….You can go back further than that but you get the point….And Utah is #24 in the nation in rushing, #10 in total D, #5 vs the run, and #11 in pass efficiency D….They have one of the best HCs in college football, take very few penalties, and are #1 in time of possession…..If nasty weather pops up (see weather blog post) it’ll favor Utah.
Lean – Utah +9.5
39. Houston -2.5 Cincinnati (55) …………..MEGALOCKS line – Houston -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 28.75 Cincinnati 26.25
The Cougars are trying to weasel their way into bowl season (4-5) and whilst they’ve got four wins you have to admit they’ve bagged a couple of fortunate ones…..Hail Mary win vs WEST BY GOD VIRGINIA and an OT win over Baylor last week….We really like QB Donovan Smith but note that the Cougars have been outgained in 6/9 games….Cincinnati has outgained foes on a regular basis and they’re running the ball really well but their QB can’t stop throwing the ball to the other team and they’ve lost seven in a row.
No leanage
40. San Jose St pick Fresno St (56) …………..MEGALOCKS line – San Jose St -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – San Jose St 28 Fresno St 28
The Bulldogs pulled another one out of the fire last week vs Boise St and whilst they’re tied for 2nd in the Mountain West they’ve won their L3G by 5/7/7 and could have lost all three of those contests….San Jose St might be playing the BEST football of any team in the Mountain West right now but they got off to a rough start…..The Spartans have one of the best players in the conference in QB Chevan Cordeiro and the most underrated aspect of this San Jose St team is a rushing attack that’s put up 200+ yards in each of the L3G…..San Jose St is off a bye which can’t hurt and they play much better at home.
Lean – San Jose St pick
41. Utah St -16 Nevada (56) …………..MEGALOCKS line – Utah St -17
Vegas Implied Score – Utah St 36 Nevada 20
Utah St has been able to SCORE the FOOTBALL (#1 MW total offense) but they’ve got a bad defense (#8) and that makes it tricky to lay this kind of lumber vs a Nevada team that STINKS…..but one that is playing much better football as of late notwithstanding their loss to Hawaii last week.
No leanage
42. UCLA -18 Arizona St (44) …………..MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -15.5
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 31 Arizona St 13
The Sun Devils are getting a lot of points in this one but they’re impossible to back given the QB situation….Yup, it looks like all their QBs are on the injured list (again) after a run of relative health….Two of UCLA’s three QBs are also on the injury report….The best idea for this BAD BOY might be the ‘under’ or a Sun Devils TT ‘under’ but we’ll wait for confirmation (if it comes) in terms of who’s available.
No leanage
43. UTSA -14.5 Rice (57.5) …………..MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -12.5
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 36 Rice 21.5
The Roadrunners are playing their best football with QB Frank Harris returning to form they’re one of three undefeated teams in the AAC as we approach press time (SMU, Tulane)….Still they only managed to beat East Carolina by 14 and Rice by 8 in their L2G and Rice might be better than those two squads…..The problem?….Rice QB JT Daniels is listed as doubtful so it’s anyone’s guess how good (or bad) the QB play might be for the Owls….UTSA’s defense AIN’T ALL THAT so it’s not like Rice is without hope….It’s just unlikely that they can keep up in a shootout.
No leanage
44. Purdue -1 Minnesota (46.5) …………..MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Purdue 23.75 Minnesota 22.75
The wrong team may be favored in this DUNG FEST but that doesn’t matter that much when the line is right around a pick ’em….Minnesota is somehow still alive in the Big Ten West hunt sitting just a game back of Iowa and recall that the Gophers have the tiebreaker with the Hawkeyes…..They’re still getting gross QB play and have been outscored 148-122 in Big Ten action….Purdue’s season has been a disaster and they’ve only got two wins….However, Minnesota will be the worst opponent that Purdue has faced in a while……Iowa/Ohio St/Corn/Michigan L4G.
No leanage
45. UAB -2.5 Navy (54.5) …………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – UAB 28.5 Navy 26
Pick your poison, yo….Do you go with the team that can run the ball and drive teams nuts with their disciplined play but has trouble SCORING the FOOTBALL (14/6/18 L3G) or side with the Blazers who CAN put points on the board but possess one of the worst defenses imaginable?….UAB has allowed 40+ in 6/8 games vs FBS foes and they rank dead last in scoring defense (38 PPG).
No leanage
46. WKU -4.5 New Mexico St (56.5) …………..MEGALOCKS line – WKU -5
Vegas Implied Score – WKU 30.5 New Mexico St 26
Yes, guy…..For all intents and purposes this game will decide who gets to face Liberty in the CUSA title game…..The TOPPERS have been a disappointment this season as their offense hasn’t been nearly as explosive as we expected heading into the season….They’ve only scored 17/29/21 L3G but at least the defense have been coming around…..The Aggies have a dangerous dual-threat QB and have won five (!) in a row….Note tho that they’ve played the #155 (!) schedule according to Sagarin which is absolutely hilarious as this point in the season (133 FBS teams)…We prefer the road dog but would want at least +6 and here we are.
No leanage
47. Colorado St -3.5 San Diego St (47.5) …………..MEGALOCKS line – Colorado St -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado St 25.5 San Diego St 22
The Rams are the superior team in this match-up but most weeks they just seem to play just well enough to lose in a close game….The exception being the crazy comeback win over Boise St….This is a nice drop in class for Colorado St after playing UNLV/AF/Wyoming in consecutive weeks but they’re just not a trustworthy bunch….Rams QB Brayden Folwer-Nicolosi makes a lot of big plays and a lot of dumb throws (18-13 TD to INT)…..This might be the worst Aztecs team this century but they’ve won and covered 4L5 in the series and can win the game if the Rams barf all over themselves with mistakes.
No leanage
48. WOO PIG -2.5 Auburn (48.5) …………..MEGALOCKS line – WOO PIG -3
Vegas Implied Score – WOO PIG 25.5 Auburn 23
We prefer the road team in this match-up but will wait to see if a consensus +3 pops up by late Friday afternoon….The offense is starting to look better (416/424 yards L2G) and WOO PIG has a defense that’s in the Mississippi St/Vanderbilt weight class….The Razorbacks snapped a six-game losing streak last week after kicking their former OC to the curb and they got a nice contribution from Rocket Sanders at RB….However, note that WOO PIG failed to gain 300Y of offense in each of their previous 4G….The road team has covered the last four in the series.
No leanage
49. USF -7 Temple (68) …………..MEGALOCKS line – USF -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – USF 37.5 Temple 30.5
Tough to pick a side in a game between two teams that can SCORE the FOOTBALL whilst playing NO DEFENSE…..in fact….USF lost last week despite scoring 50 (!) points (L 59-50 to Memphis)….The Owls are potent with QB EJ Warner back at the controls and are coming off a win over Navy.
No leanage
50. Texas St -1.5 Coastal Carolina (58.5) ……………..MEGALOCKS line -Texas St -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 30 Coastal Carolina 28.5
It seemed impossible about a month ago but Coastal Carolina has jumped to the top of the FUN BEAT East standings (James Madison is ineligible)…..The bad news is that starting QB G McCall has not been cleared to play and backup Jarrett Guest is listed as doubtful…..Flipping back to GOOD NEWS….3rd string (co-backup) Ethan Vasko had a big game last week (180 pass/170 rush) and note that the CHANTS have won four straight…..That’s still a little too much QB uncertainty for us to feel confident with an explosive 6-win Texas St team coming to Conway…..Looks like a coin toss.
No leanage
51. Memphis -9.5 Charlotte (51.5) ……………..MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 30.5 East Carolina 21
Charlotte found an offense in last week’s win over Tulsa and that makes two wins in the last three games for the FIGHTING BIFF POGGIS ….They still aren’t gonna scare anyone on offense and the line looks a bit short…..However, it must be noted that Memphis has a massive game next week (SMU) and they’ve allowed an impossible 591 and 583 yards during their last two contests….The Tigers are also much better at home than they are ON THE HIGHWAY…..Mobsters hit the dog to drive the line below 10 for those who like to know that kind of stuff.
No leanage
52. UNLV 5.5 Wyoming (50.5) ……………..MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -4
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 28 Wyoming 22.5
It’s one of the FEEL GOOD stories of the college football season….UNLV is right in the thick of the Mountain West race but they need Fresno St to slip up at some point…..They’ve got the much better offense (#3 MW; Wyoming #12) and their defense isn’t that much worse than what the Pokes bring to the table….Also note that Wyoming is 6-0 at home and 0-3 on the road…..A few worrisome things in terms of backing UNLV are the fact that Wyoming is tougher than a NIGHT IN JAIL and are more used to playing in important November games (they are still alive in the MW race as well) and they’ve covered 5L6 in the series….Still prefer the home team but was hoping for something closer to -3 and here we are.
No leanage
53. SMU -17 North Texas (67) ……………..MEGALOCKS line – SMU -14
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 42 North Texas 25
The Mean Green are a deadly 5-0 in AAC play and they’ve been very close vs the top teams….In the L3G they’ve lost to Tulane by 7, Memphis by 3, and UTSA by 8…..SMU’s starting QB Preston Stone is in concussion protocol and they’ve got a yuuuge game with Memphis next week….SMU’s defense is statistically impressive but they’ve faced a TRASH HEAP of offenses so far in AAC action.
Lean – North Texas +17
54. FAU -7.5 East Carolina (44.5) ……………..MEGALOCKS line – FAU -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – FAU 26 East Carolina 18.5
The ARRRRRRRR Pirates gave Tulane a good battle last week but fell in a close one (L13-10) and the culprit continues to be an offense that struggles to get much going on offense (last AAC total offense)….Their defense is pretty stingy tho (#4) and HOOT HOOT has been a disappointment this season….They’re trying to cobble together six wins for a bowl bid but so far their victories have come vs a collection of teams that can be collectively classified as DUMPSTER JUICE….Monmouth, Tulsa, USF, Charlotte.
No leanage
55. Oklahoma -13 West Virginia (58) ……………..MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -13.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 35.5 West Virginia 22.5
The Sooners season might be going GLUG GLUG GLUG right before our very eyes as they’ve lost two consecutive Big 12 games…..Mind you those were against two teams better than WEST BY GOD VIRGINIA….It’s a revenge spot for the Sooners after losing in Morgantown LY and Oklahoma should appreciate the drop in class….The intrepid Marc Lawrence points out that Oklahoma is an impossible 24-0 L24 at home in the regular season (16-7-1 ATS) after a loss and whilst Oklahoma is dropping in class the Mountaineers are making a jump (UCF, BYU)….Still wish the number was closer to 10.5/11 but here we are.
No leanage
56. Georgia St -2.5 Appalachian St (61.5) ……………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia St -1
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia St 32 Appalachian St 29.5
The Panthers looked to have a legit shot of winning the division not too long ago but they’ve dropped two straight games and already have a bowl bid sewn up (6-3)….We’re not sure about their motivation heading into this one but at least their excellent rushing attack will get to feast on the App St run D (last Sun Belt)….On the other side, App St will be able to move the ball thru the air vs one of the worst pass defenses in the Sun Belt…….Fun Fact….Georgia St has never beaten App St (0-9)….We prefer the road team but will wait to see if a solid +3 pops up…..That’s not likely but you can be sure that the Mountaineers will be on our ML underdog list posted on Friday.
No leanage
57. Georgia Southern -2.5 Marshall (56.5) ……………..MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Southern 29.5 Marshall 27
The Herd have won five straight games vs the Eagles and are scrambling to get to bowl eligibility (4-5)….They should appreciate a home game after playing back-to-back road games at Coastal Carolina and Appalachian St (lost both)…..The offense is bit lost at the moment (24/6/9 L3G) so even tho it’s tempting to take the home dog they just aren’t playing well at the moment….The Eagles are still in the hunt for the division crown and can’t afford to lose this one…..Marshall’s run D has been a mess but they’ve been ok vs the pass which is good when taking on Georgia Southern…..Prefer the home team but would need 3+ to consider.
No leanage
58. South Alabama -13 Arkansas St (55) ……………..MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -11
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 34 Arkansas St 21
One more win for the Red Wolves to go BOWLING which is awesome considering how unlikely that seemed before the season began…..The Jags have been a disappointment but they’ll appreciate the drop in class (Troy last week) and they almost surely will have QB Carter Bradley available this week…..A few too many points but the Jags have shown they can blow out the less-talented teams in the FUN BELT.
No leanage
59. Wisconsin -10 Northwestern (42) ……………..MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 26 Northwestern 16
The Badgers are decimated on offense as the injury bug has taken it’s toll…..They’re down to their backup QB and depth pieces at RB….The good news is that the defense has been really good all year…..only one team has managed to score more than 24 points in the Badgers and they rank #36 in the nation in total defense and #18 in pass efficiency defense…..The big question is how they bounce back off the loss to Indiana (!) last week….Northwestern needs a pair of wins to get to a bowl game (4-5) and they’ve already beaten Minnesota and Maryland….both of those game were at home tho….Line looks about right but prefer the road dog just a wee bit.
No leanage
60. Liberty -13.5 Old Dominion (59.5) ……………..MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -11
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 36.5 Old Dominion 23
The Flames have rolled out to a 9-0 (!) record and they’ve got the #2 rushing attack in the nation (Air Force)….We’ll take a stab with the road dog that’s fighting for bowl eligibility and note that they’ve played the MUCH tougher schedule (#86 vs #132) and the Monarchs haven’t lost a game by more than SIX points since week one….And all of those losses came vs teams equal to or better than Liberty……Wake (by 3), Marshall (by 6), James Madison (!) (by 3), and Coastal Carolina (by 4).
Lean – Old Dominion
Note – line is currently -13.5….We’ll wait until late Friday afternoon and see if we can get +14; if not, +13 or +13.5 is fine. Stay tuned.
Update 4:10 Friday – Lean Old Dominion +13.5…..+13.5 is still consensus…+13s starting to pop up
61. Georgia -11 Ole Miss (58) ……………..MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -13
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 34.5 Ole Miss 23.5
The Bulldogs have been really starting to roll on offense and as crazy as it may sound, the offense may be the better side of the football….Ole Miss hasn’t played very many good offenses outside of LSU (allowed 49 points) and the defense got exposed by Texas A&M last week (35 points with a cripple at QB and without their best WR)…..Ole Miss hasn’t had the devastating ground attack that you need to see to move the ball consistently vs elite teams and while we think they’ll have their moments this is a really tough road test for the Rebels……They also lost their starting RT this week to a foot injury….Georgia’s superstar TE Brock Bowers may see the field (!) for a few snaps but we’d put the max participation at around 10-15 plays.
Lean – Georgia -11 (you can find a -10.5 if you shop around)
61. Oregon -15 USC (76) ……………..MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -17
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 45.5 USC 30.5
The Ducks just might be playing the best football of anyone in the country right now and their only loss of the year came on the road to undefeated Washington where they won the yardage battle but lost the game (L 36-33)….QB Bo Nix is having a Heisman-worthy campaign (78%, 25-2 TD to INT, 9.0 YPA; 5 rush TD) and the defense has been playing really well (#18 FBS total defense, #12 run D, #19 pass efficiency D)…..The Trojans season is falling apart and the defense is a complete DUMPSTER FIRE….They’ve allowed 41/41/48/34/49/52 L6G and we don’t think firing the DC is gonna help this week…….QB Caleb Williams is a great talent but the WR group is nowhere near “elite” and he can’t do it all by himself….Oregon has only turned the ball over four times (!) (T1 FBS) and we don’t see the Trojans getting many stops…..Oregon has been slaughtering people at home.
Official play – Oregon -15.5 -108 <sent 12:42pm Nov 10>
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re continuing to play these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.