North Carolina at Clemson
Posted November 16
The Game
The Tigers have somewhat pulled the season out of the proverbial TOILET by taking down Notre Dame and Georgia Tech in back-to-back weeks. They’ve still had a disappointing season by their standards but there’s no doubt that they’ve got a very talented roster. North Carolina was in great shape in the ACC about a month ago but they lost back-to-back games to Virginia and Georgia Tech (!). Now they need to win out and get help in order to reach the ACC Championship Game.
Let’s gooo!
The Details
Clemson -7 North Carolina (59.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Clemson -8
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Clemson 33.25 North Carolina 26.25
Clemson offense vs North Carolina defense
The Clemson offense has been MEH this year and they’ve been known to turn it over now and then in the red zone. We saw some GREEN SHOOTS of growth last week vs Georgia Tech as they put up 465 yards (260 rush, 205 pass) and that gave us an indication of what they could do vs a crappy defense (Miami, NC State, Irish previous three games). This week they face another GREASE STAIN of a defense in the form of the North Carolina stop unit (#8 ACC run D, #9 pass efficiency D) that’ll have trouble with a revitalized Clemson ground game and short passing attack. In North Carolina’s L4G vs FBS competition they’ve allowed 45/46/31/31.
North Carolina offense vs Clemson defense
The Tar Heels have one of the best offenses in college football (#19 rush, #8 pass) and while QB Drake Maye’s numbers haven’t been as eye-popping as last year there’s no doubt that he’s still one of the best QBs in the country. And it’s certainly helped to have WR Devontez Walker dominating in the THROW GAME. The ground assault has also been cooking with RB Omarion Hampton so Clemson will have their hands full. Recall tho that UNC had a great offense LY and they got smoked 39-10 in the ACC title game. Clemson was much better on offense LY but their defense is still a top-notch unit (#6 FBS total D, #19 run D, #5 pass efficiency D).
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The home team is 5-1 ATS L6 in the series….The fav is 11-4 ATS L15…..Clemson has played the tougher schedule (#44 vs #68) and their losses were to Duke (road game, Duke had their starting QB), Florida St (undefeated), NC State (7-3, road game), and Miami (2 OT, road game)…..UNC lost to a pair of DUNG PILES…..Note: if LUA-VUH wins at noon they clinch a spot in the ACC title game and UNC is toast…..If YOUR Hurricanes win the game then the Tar Heels are still alive…..One way the Tar Heels lose motivation, the other way the pressure is on UNC and Clemson gets motivation to ruin their season.
Summary
We’ll roll with the team with the much better defense and the squad that seems to be motivated to finish the season strong.
Conclusion
Official play – Clemson -7 -108 <sent 5:44pm Nov 16>
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
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