Alabama at Auburn
Posted November 24
The Game
It’s IRON BOWL time, yo.
ROLL TIDE comes into town playing their best football of the year. They’ve rattled off nine consecutive wins since their home loss to Texas and have already locked down another SEC West title. Auburn has struggled as anticipated in the first year of the Hugh Freeze regime but they’ve still managed to cobble together six wins and achieve bowl eligibility.
Crazy things often happen in this game. Let’s gooo!
The Details
Alabama -13 Auburn (47.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -14.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 30.25 Auburn 17.25
ROLL TIDE offense vs Auburn defense
The Alabama offense is starting to COOK as they’ve scored 34/42/49/66 in their last four contests. QB Jalen Milroe is looking REALLY good down the stretch and he’s booked a 13-3 TD to INT mark in his last six games whilst hitting a bucketload of big plays down the field. The Tide is balanced on offense (#6 SEC rushing, #9 passing) but most importantly, they’re doing a much better job of protecting the QB. Milroe has only been sacked three times in the L3G and note that Auburn is mediocre when it comes to rushing the passer (#7 SEC sacks). The Tigers are #11 in the SEC vs the run and #5 in pass efficiency defense. They’re good but not great on defense, and we expect ROLL TIDE to score 28+ in this contest.
Auburn offense vs ROLL TIDE defense
Auburn has the worst passing offense in the SEC and their QBs have combined for a dismal 14-7 TD to INT mark (6.9 YPA; Alabama 9.9) and their WR/TE group is seriously lacking in talent. ROLL TIDE is solid vs against the pass (#3 SEC pass efficiency D, 13-10 TD to INT) so it’s hard to see Auburn getting much done thru the air. Will they be able to run the ball? We expect them to have a bit of success as the Tide aren’t as stout as usual defending the ground attack (#5 SEC). Auburn has had some good games on the ground (#3 SEC rushing offense) but it’s hard to ignore that they managed just 65 rushing yards vs something called New Mexico St last week. Yes, they didn’t have the ball for many plays in that game, but it’s a yellow flag if not a red one. We believe that Auburn will have a hard time getting past 14 points without the help of Alabama turnovers.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The home team is on a 9-1-1 ATS run in the Iron Bowl and ROLL TIDE has lost three of the last five games in Jordan-Hare Stadium……Alabama has taken down Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and LSU…..Auburn has beaten a collection of TURDS…..UMass, Cal, Samford, Miss St, Vanderbilt, WOO PIG.
Summary
Alabama has the far superior roster and should win the game by 14 or more. The case for Auburn is “voodoo” or “miracles” or creepy wizards casting spells. Could that lead to an Auburn cover? Sure, but we’ll rely on talent. Fingers crossed!
Conclusion
Lean – ROLL TIDE -13 <Note – it’s a split market right now between -13 and -13.5; -13 should be easy to find for anyone with multiple outs>
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.