Hey everyone.
Here’s the Week 13 Boxscore and Wagering review. FBS vs FBS MATCHUPS ONLY.
Let’s go!
As in previous years, we’ll only report on the teams that are playing on CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND! Extra detail will be provided on each game.
Boxscore review:
AAC
Tulane 29 UTSA 16 – The Green Wave get full marks for JUST WINNING, BABY but this was definitely a misleading final….UTSA turned it over FIVE times and were stopped on downs THREE times…..375-352 yard edge for Roadrunners…..UTSA was a combined 10/23 on 3rd/4th down, Tulane 5/15 on 3rd down…..Tulane QB Pratt 9/22 for 125 yards, 2-0 TD to INT….Big game for Tulane RB M Hughes 166 yards, TD……The Green Wave have now won 10 straight games.
SMU 59 Navy 14 – Total destruction…..Mustangs led 52-14 (!!) at the half…..487-253 yard edge…..NOTE – bad news for SMU as starting QB Preston Stone was carted off the field with what is surely a serious leg injury…..They’ll have to play Tulane with backup QBs including Kevin Jennings who haven’t had much work this season.
ACC
Florida St 24 Florida 15 – Gutsy win for the Seminoles…..Gators jumped out to a 12-CACK lead and they had all the momentum…..Florida St engineered a long scoring drive to cut the lead to 12-7 at the break and then they dominated the 2nd half outscoring the Gators 17-3……Agonizing WATERBOARD SPECIAL for anyone holding a Gators +6.5 ticket or similar as Florida St busted a big TD run late when it looked like they might run out the clock or kick a FG and go up by five points…..232-224 yard edge for Gators…..Florida St QB T Rodemaker got off to a slow start but played much better in the 2nd half….Finished 12/25 134….Florida St had 6 sacks and the pass rush really got going in the second half
Kentucky 38 Louisville 31 – Very entertaining and back-and-forth game…..Misleading final….Cards with 403-289 yard edge and they had a 10-point lead twice in the 3Q…..Kentucky had a KO return TD and some timely big runs from Ray Davis in the second half….A decent game from the Cards but they were uncharacteristically sloppy at times (-2 t/o margin)
Big 12
Texas 57 Texas Tech 7 – WHOA, NELLIE….It was 7-7 and then Texas exploded with an impossible 50-straight points…..528-198 yard edge for Longhorns…..Even star recruit Arch MANNING got a bit of playing time….We’ll keep tabs on the injury report as a few key Texas players were hurt/injured during this game….302 rushing yards for Texas utilizing a lot of different options….This offense is gonna be a handful over the next “x” number of games.
Oklahoma St 40 BYU 34 (2 OT)……What a game! The Pokes get it done with a yuuuuge comeback….BYU led 24-6 at halftime (!)….They took the lead with a minute left thanks to an Ollie Gordon TD run…..BYU forced OT with a last play 48-yard FG….BYU gets TD in first OT…..Cowboys gut out a tying TD then get another one in the 2nd OT….THEN….they force a fumble in the 2nd OT on a great play to end the game…..Misleading final – 503-327 yard edge for Pokes……BYU pick 6 in first half helped their cause….Star RB Ollie Gordon with 166 rushing yards and 5 TDs…..QB Alan Bowman made a few mistakes but was good enough when it mattered…..321 pass yards, 0-2 TD to INT.
Big Ten
Michigan 30 Ohio St 24 – THE GAME lived up to the hype!…..Michigan got the jump early thanks to a short field (INT) then scored a somewhat controversial TD a short time later to lead 14-3…..Ohio St kept scraping and hacking away and tied the game 17-17 with 5 min left 3Q…..Michigan led 27-24 late….first down ends the game….Ohio St gets a stop….Michigan kicks the spread-covering FG…..Ohio St got into Michigan territory late but threw an INT……Buckeyes had a 378-338 yard edge but were (-2) in t/o margin….Michigan won the rushing battle 156-107…..QB JJ McCarthy had his best game in about a month…..16/20 148 yards 1-0 TD to INT
Iowa 13 CORN 10 – Another very typical IOWA game but this one was even more ridiculous than normal….Not sure what’s in the water in Nebraska but they just can’t win a close game…..Iowa had two FGs blocked…..Game tied late…..CORN gets an INT and look like they could actually get into position to score in the dying seconds…..NOPE….They throw an INT and Iowa wins it on last second FG by some random dood kicking his first ever FG……264-257 yd edge for Iowa, had chance to bury the game early but CORN held tough….Another disgusting effort from the Iowa THROW GAME…Deacon Hill was 11/28 94 yards 0-1 TD to INT….Nice effort from Iowa RB Leshon Williams 111 yards rushing
Conference USA
Liberty 42 UTEP 28 – Flames head into the title game at 12-0 (!)…..Up 35-7 after 3Q…..UTEP with 21 points in 4Q to make the score respectable…..469-271 yd edge for Liberty…..441 (!!) rushing yards on 62 carries….They’re an absolute wrecking crew on the ground….QBs were just 5-18, 23 yards (!)
New Mexico St 20 Jacksonville St 17 – Painful loss for the COCKS…..down 17-3 after 3Q and getting nothing done on offense….Tie the game with less than a minute left 17-17…..New Mexico St wins the game on a last play 52-yard FG…..No overtime for YOU……Misleading final 455-333 yard edge for the Aggies and they did a great job holding down the Jacksonville St rushing attack (85 yards)…..That’s an interesting data point considering that they’re playing Liberty next!
MAC
Toledo 32 Central Michigan 17 – Toledo did a good job of grinding out a win in a “meaningless” game….Up 24-3 4Q and were never threatened…..358-335 yd edge for Rockets, won the rushing battle 261-104…..QB D Finn held to 97 passing yards but Toledo wasn’t incredibly-motivated to use the THROW GAME
Miami Ohio 17 Ball St 15 – Redhawks get their 10th win!…..Misleading final….365-216 yard edge for Cardinals and they won the rushing battle 274-46……Miami blocked the potential game-winning FG with a minute left to preserve the win…..Redhawks were brutal on offense but they had to have one eye on the MAC title battle with Toledo
Mountain West
Boise St 27 Air Force 19 – Broncos led 17-6 at the half….Air Force cut the lead to 5 points a couple of times in the second half but couldn’t catch up….409-337 yard edge for Boise St….Held AF to 206 rush yards….A healthy and motivated RB Ashton Jeanty had a fine game (107 rush / 118 receiving) …..QB Taylen Green made a few mistakes but threw the ball well at times….13/17 228Y, TD, 2 INT…..Broncos head to title game on three-game winning streak
San Jose St 37 UNLV 31 – Spartans win the game and end up in a tie for first in the conference……”Computer rankings” keep them out of the big dance and UNLV moves on……San Jose St had a 37-17 lead early 4Q and held on…..482-411 yard edge for San Jose St…..UNLV had no answer on defense but they were effective as per usual on offense….182 rush 229 pass…..Rebels finish the regular season with 9 wins!
PAC 12
Washington 24 Washington St 21 – Huskies fortunate to escape with a win…..381-306 yard edge for Cougars…..QB M Penix held to just 204 passing yards…..Washington made a bold move and went for it on 4th down deep in their own end late in the game…..Got into FG range and kicked the GW FG as time expired……Wash St was (-1) in t/o margin and had 10 penalties….Huskies move to 12-0 (!) but aren’t in prime form heading into the game with Oregon.
Oregon 31 Oregon St 7 – Another great performance from the Ducks…..14-7 late in the 2nd Q and Oregon got a TD before half to make it 21-7 and rolled in the 2nd half…..480-273 yard edge for Oregon…..Held the Beavers to just 53 yards on the ground…..Bo Nix 367 yards 2 TD 0 INT
SEC
Georgia 31 Georgia Tech 23 – It wasn’t pretty but the Dawgs held on…..31-13 4Q and Yellow Jackets cut the lead to 8 points with four minutes left……437-363 yard edge for Georgia…..Georgia Tech had 205 rush yards (!)…..Bulldogs (-2 in t/o margin….NOTE that Georgia was playing without several key pieces on offense including TE B Bowers and WR L McConkey
ROLL TIDE 27 Auburn 24 – The PRAYER at JORDAN-HARE…..The infamous “voodoo” didn’t help the home team as ROLL TIDE completed a miraculous 4th down and goal pass from over 30 yards away to take the lead in the dying seconds…..Auburn didn’t do much of anything thru the air as expected but they hit a few timely throws and rushed for 244 yards (!) (5.8 YPC)…..451-337 yard edge for ROLL TIDE….Two TDs called back via penalty, one first down deep in Auburn territory called back by penalty leading to a missed FG
Sun Belt
Troy 35 Southern Miss 17 – Troy led 14-10 at the half in this “meaningless” game….Pulled away in the 2nd half….427-286 yard edge, 108 rushing yards (not great) and 319 yards thru the air….Troy gets their 10th win and will host Appalachian St in the title game
Appalachian St 55 Georgia Southern 27 – The Mountaineers won their final five games including this one to win the division!….The Eagles got off to a hot start leading 14-3 after the 1st Q and then it was all Appalachian St…..532-360 yard edge for the Mountaineers….236 rush 296 pass yards…..Gonna be a fun battle to see their offense go up against the Troy defense
Betting review
“Official” plays
Coastal Carolina +9 (L) – Line closed at +3.5. It looked like all three QBs might be available, as it turns out, The top-two were both out and the 3rd stringer was hurt (but played). We take the “L” along with several MOBSTERS who piled in late on the Chants.
Ohio St +3.5 (L) – closed at +3
Small plays/Leans
Win – Ole Miss under, South Florida, UCF
Lose – Corn, Bama, C Michigan, UTSA, Sam Houston over, Jacksonville St, ODU
Push it, Push it real good – North Texas
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this season. 11-21-2 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 81-59 (58%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.), but as mentioned around midseason, we recommend that it’s best to risk the same amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks. That’s what we’ve been doing so we suggest the same for everyone else.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
Season Win Total Club
UMass over 2 – Winner…….Had them pegged for 3-4 wins…..Finished 3-9 and were a much improved team in 2023!
Colorado St over 4.5 – Winner……Got to five wins, dropped the finale to Hawaii, were better than their final record indicates but we still got there in the end.
Virginia Tech over 5.5 – Winner….. They buried Virginia in the final game to finish 6-6…..Nice price at +133.
Kentucky over 7 – Push it. Push it real good. The ultimate “7-5” team. Congrats to those who won with ‘over 6.5’.
Tulane under 9.5 – Loser. Lots of close call but they just win, baby. 11-1 heading into the AAC Championship Game.
Akron over 3.5 – Loser. 0-3 in OT games. Tough break for swell guys.
UConn over 5 – Loser. Disappointing step backwards for the program.
Futures and Props Club
The Club has some good live ones!
NOTE – IF we decide to engage in any hedging activities it will be done by 5pm Thursday. We’ll let you know in the Week 14 Quick Takes page AND will post any additions in the Futures and Props blog post. We’ll REPOST that page so that it appears on page one of the Blog section.
MAC Champion – Toledo (+180) plays Miami Ohio (+803). Let’s see what TICKEE TICKEE ends up cashing on Saturday.
ACC Champion – Florida St (+175) plays LUA-VUH for all the ACC marbles but will have to do it without their star QB Jordan Travis.
Mountain West Champion – Boise St (+200) travels to face UNLV in the title game. Our 30-1 stab on San Jose St ended in grotesque fashion as the Spartans were tied with Boise St and UNLV but got tossed to the side due to tiebreakers decided by computer ratings. They won their final six games but couldn’t overcome a slow start.
AAC Champion – SMU (+320) visits Tulane for the big game. NOTE – SMU starting QB Preston Stone suffered a serious leg injury in their final game and they’ll almost certainly be going with a backup QB. We should hear for sure by Monday afternoon.
National Champion – Georgia (+240), Texas (+2500), and Oregon (+1400) are all still in the mix!
Heisman Trophy winner – Bo Nix (+2000) or Jayden Daniels (+1129) ? Inquiring minds want to know!
GL and enjoy Championship weekend!