Iowa at Nebraska
Posted November 23
The Game
Yes, guy. It doesn’t get uglier than this, yo. A game total of 24.5 says it all. The good news is that this game is yuuuge for CORN NATION as they’ve got a final shot to become bowl eligible. Iowa has already clinched the role of SACRIFICIAL LAMB to Ohio St or Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game next week so they can play this one stress-free.
Let’s gooo!
The Details
Nebraska -2.5 Iowa (24.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Nebraska -2
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Nebraska 13.5 Iowa 11
Nebraska offense vs Iowa defense
CORN has been awful in THROW GAME thanks to disgusting QB play and WR injuries but these guys can RUN THE ROCK. The Huskers are #1 in the Big Ten in rushing offense (186 YPG) which always comes in handy and note that QB Chubba Purdy looked borderline-acceptable last week (15/24, 169, 1-1 TD to INT) and it doesn’t hurt to have WR Billy Kemp back in the mix. Iowa’s defense is excellent but they’ll be without star CB Cooper DeJean once again (OFY) and it’s not unthinkable that Nebraska can do something at some point. The Hawkeyes are #12 in the Big Ten in sacks so we think that Purdy will have enough time to hit a few plays down the field when he’s not driving the Iowa defense nuts with his legs (105 rush yards LW vs Badgers).
Iowa offense vs Nebraska defense
The Iowa offense is something beyond DUMPSTER JUICE and it literally defies description. They rank #10 in the Big Ten in rushing, dead last in passing, and dead last in the nation in total offense (245 YPG). We won’t get into the merits of their backup QB or the fact that they lost their two star TEs, but just know that Iowa has scored 15/10/10/22/13 L5G. CORN has a rock solid defense and they’re #2 in the Big Ten vs the run. Can QB Deacon Hill (55%, 5-5 TD to INT) do enough damage to book the win?
Trends, Intangibles and More!
As noted earlier, CORN has a chance to make a bowl game with a home win and recall that they haven’t played in the postseason since the 2016 Music City Bowl when they lost to the Vols (L 38-24)……The Huskers upset the Hawkeyes in Iowa City LY (W 24-17) and kept them out of the Big Ten title game…..TURNOVERS are very likely to determine the outcome….CORN is a nasty (-15) in turnover margin (#132 FBS) but at least they’re just (-4) at home….and hopefully QB Jeff Sims won’t be within 190 miles of the stadium on gameday.
Summary
We lean to the home team with the motivational edge and are fairly confident they’ll win this game if they aren’t worse than (-1) in the turnover department.
Conclusion
NOTE – we prefer Nebraska but are waiting for a better line. We’ll post an update here before 10am on Friday……It’s -2.5….Iowa money hasn’t come in all week…..Is tomorrow am the time? Every half-point matters in a mess like this game and we think there’s only a 5% chance the line closes at a firm -3. We’re willing to wait. Stay tuned !
UPDATE – 9:45am Friday: Consensus is still -2.5. There’s a rogue -2 out there and a few -3 -105s. We’ll go with our gut and hope the Huskers win by something more impressive than a final score of 3-2 or 11-9.
Lean – CORN -2.5
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.