James Madison at Coastal Carolina
Posted November 23
The Game
It’s a battle on the TURF by the SURF as mighty James Madison comes to town to face Coastal Carolina on Saturday afternoon. The Dukes dropped their first game of the season last week in overtime to Appalachian St and have to be a bit disappointed after seeing their hopes of an undefeated season go POOF. The CHANTS have been grinding since their bye week a number of weeks back and are actually in charge of their own FUN BELT DESTINY. If they win this game, they’ll battle Troy for all the marbles next week.
Let’s go!
The Details
James Madison -9 Coastal Carolina (50)
MEGALOCKS LINE – James Madison -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: James Madison 29.5 Coastal Carolina 20.5
James Madison offense vs Coastal Carolina defense
The Dukes have been one of the better offenses in the Sun Belt this season but they’ve done the vast majority of their damage thru the air (#2 Sun Belt passing offense) behind the fine work of QB Jordan McCloud (27-8 TD to INT). The run game has been MEH and note that they only managed 61 net rushing yards vs one of the worst run defenses in the Sun Belt last week (App St) whilst allowing 5 sacks. The OL is banged up and hasn’t been playing well so they just might have to be one-dimensional on Saturday. That’s not great news considering that the Chanticleers have the #1 rated pass defense in terms of efficiency in the conference (55%, 15-13 TD to INT). Coastal Carolina’s defense has been getting better as the season has gone along but we expect the Dukes to have some success thru the air as they’re a very good passing team.
Coastal Carolina offense vs James Madison defense
Coastal Carolina has had to use three QBs this season (all with 60+ attempts) and it really hasn’t mattered who’s been in the game. Star QB Grayson McCall is still on the shelf but QB Jarrett Guest has been really good (72%, 7-2 TD to INT, 11.4 YPA) whilst something known as QB Ethan Vasko has provided a spark running the ball (170 yards vs Old Dominion). They won’t be able to get much done on the ground vs the Dukes’ excellent run D (#1 FBS, 60 YPG) but they’ll be able to work on the soft James Madison secondary with a number of dangerous targets including the sweet 1-2 WR combo of Jared Brown and Sam Pinckney. The Dukes definitely miss superstar DL Jalen Green who led the nation in sacks (15.5) and TFL before he was injured a couple of weeks ago.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The motivational edge should be in Coastal Carolina’s favor as noted above….They win the East division with a win (or an App St loss) and James Madison is ineligible to win the division OR play in a bowl game (unless there are not enough bowl eligible teams and by some miracle the NCAA allows them to be selected)…..Also note that James Madison WHOOPED DAT AZZ last year and slaughtered the Chanticleers in the 2022 season finale (W 47-7)…..Revenge is often a weak narrative but it could apply here.
Summary
Coastal Carolina hadn’t lost a game since their bye week until mailing it in vs Army in a meaningless game last time out. They’re playing their best football right now and the Dukes are banged up and not at their peak. We expect a close game heading into the 4th quarter and believe this is just too many points.
Conclusion
Official play – Coastal Carolina +9 <sent 1:15pm Nov 23>
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
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