Ohio St at Michigan
Posted November 24
The Game
Yup, “THE GAME” couldn’t have more meaningful consequences.
Ohio St and Michigan both come into this contest with identical records of 11-0. Neither team has played a very tough schedule but the Buckeyes took down Notre Dame (A) with a last-second TD and both teams handled Penn St. Michigan did it ON THE HIGHWAY whilst the Buckeyes won their date with the Nittany Lions in Columbus.
Two TITANS of college football go head-to-head on Saturday. Let’s roll!
The Details
Michigan -3.5 Ohio St (46.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Michigan 25 Ohio St 21.5
Michigan offense vs Ohio St defense
The Wolverines have been balanced on offense (#49 FBS rush, #63 pass) and whilst RB Blake Corum has had a fine season (888 rush yards, 20 TD) he hasn’t had the same explosiveness as LY (4.9 YPC vs 5.9 YPC in 2022). His partner in crime RB Donovan Edwards has been a shell of his former self but thankfully QB Jake McCarthy has done a good job (18-4 TD to INT, 74%, 9.9 YPC) and distributed the ball well to his WR/TE/RB weaponry. The not-so-good news is that McCarthy hasn’t looked good the last three games and he’s posted a mediocre and puzzling 0-1 TD to INT mark over that time horizon. The offense looks a bit out of sorts right now and that’s not great when going up against one of the best defenses in college football. Ohio St ranks #3 in the country in total defense, #19 in run defense, and #1 (!) in pass efficiency defense. The Wolverines pass protection has shown some holes (10 sacks allowed L5G) but the Buckeyes have just 21 sacks on the year (#11 Big Ten) and just 7 in the L4G. We think it’s gonna be tough sledding for the Michigan offense. Ohio St has allowed 17 points or fewer in every game this season and just a pair of FGs over the L2G.
Ohio St offense vs Michigan defense
It’s taken some time for the Ohio St ground attack get rolling (#84 FBS) but they’ve been much more dangerous with the return of a healthy TreVeyon Henderson at RB and he’s passed the 100-yard plateau in 4L5G. The obvious weapon that Michigan will have to control is all-Universe WR Marvin Harrison Jr who’s one of the best players in college football (1,093, 13 TD, 17.6) but they can’t sleep on some of the other THROW GAME targets including star TE Cade Stover. Ohio St is also going to have a tough time moving the ball on an elite Michigan defense who rates #1 in the nation in total defense, #8 in run defense, and #3 in pass efficiency defense. Michigan doesn’t have a killer pass rush BUT they’ve got a really talented DL/LB group that won’t have too much trouble finding an immobile QB in Kyle McCord. One thing to note about McCord is that while he gets a lot of criticism his overall numbers aren’t that bad (22-4 TD to INT, 66%, 9.1 YPA). It helps to have Harrison Jr at WR but it’s not like McCord is a liability back there.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The underdog has covered six of the last seven meetings and pulled upsets in three of the last four BIG GAMES.
Summary
These two teams are both REALLY good and evenly matched. In our estimation, Ohio St is the team most likely to hit big plays through the air and the least likely to have their head coach make a critical error in judgement at the wrong time. Coach Jim won’t be on the sidelines for the Wolverines and there’s little doubt that Ryan Day vs an interim HC is at least a small advantage for Ohio St.
We’ll call for the Buckeyes to cover in a close one and they’re very capable of ending the painful two-game losing streak to Michigan and heading to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Conclusion
Official play – Ohio St +3.5 -108 <sent 11:52am Nov 24>
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.