Week 13 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
CARD IS FINAL. Happy Thanksgiving weekend!
Handy index: Quick Takes
“Official” plays in Blue. Small plays/Leans in Green.
- Bowling Green at Western Michigan (Tuesday)
- Eastern Michigan at Buffalo (Tuesday)
- Florida St at Florida
- Vanderbilt at Tennessee
- Indiana at Purdue
- Wisconsin at Minnesota
- BYU at Oklahoma St
- Kansas at Cincinnati
- Pittsburgh at Duke
- Wake Forest at Syracuse
- Colorado at Utah
- Notre Dame at Stanford
- Miami Ohio at Ball St
- Northern Illinois at Kent St
- Wyoming at Nevada
- Ole Miss at Mississippi St (Thursday)
- TCU at Oklahoma (Friday)
- Ohio at Akron (Friday)
- Utah St at New Mexico (Friday)
- Miami at Boston College (Friday)
- Memphis at Temple (Friday)
- Liberty at UTEP
- Troy at Southern Miss
- FAU at Rice
- Tulsa at East Carolina
- Navy at SMU
- Charlotte at South Florida
- Missouri at WOO PIG (Friday)
- Georgia at Georgia Tech
- Penn St vs Michigan St (Friday)
- Toledo at Central Michigan (Friday)
- UConn at UMass
- Washington St at Washington
- UTSA at Tulane (Friday)
- Northwestern at Illinois
- Maryland at Rutgers
- MTSU at Sam Houston
- Oregon St at Oregon (Friday)
- Virginia Tech at Virginia
- Air Force at Boise St (Friday)
- North Carolina at NC State
- California at UCLA
- ULM at Louisiana
- Western Kentucky at FIU
- Texas A&M at LSU
- Kentucky at Louisville
- West Virginia at Baylor
- Colorado St at Hawaii
- Iowa St at Kansas St
- Houston at UCF
- Jacksonville St at New Mexico St
- South Alabama at Texas St
- Georgia Southern at Appalachian St
- San Jose St at UNLV
- Arkansas St at Marshall
- Texas Tech at Texas (Friday)
- Clemson at South Carolina
- Arizona at Arizona St
- Fresno St at San Diego St
- UAB at North Texas
- Georgia St at Old Dominion
QUICK TAKES
1. Bowling Green -2 Western Michigan (53)…………MEGALOCKS line – Bowling Green -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Bowling Green 27.5 Western Michigan 25.5
These teams are very close in terms of talent and it’s hard to gauge motivation….The Falcons are already bowl eligible (6-5) and have a good win on their resume (Georgia Tech)….also note that the only two games they’ve lost L6G are vs the two teams in the MAC title game (Miami Ohio, Toledo)….Western Michigan took down their two DIRECTIONAL RIVALS (E Michigan, C Michigan) this year but lost last week 24-CACK vs Northern Illinois to put an end their bowl hopes (4-7)…..They’ve got a few nice pieces on offense but the defense ranks last in the MAC in total defense in conference action….FWIW Broncos are 12-4 ATS L16 vs the Falcons.
No leanage
2. Buffalo -6.5 Eastern Michigan (36.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Buffalo -4
Vegas Implied Score – Buffalo 21.5 Eastern Michigan 15
We were surprised to see Buffalo (3-8) open as such a big favorite in this BAD BOY vs an Eastern Michigan squad that’s still looking to stamp a ticket to bowl season (5-6) and were hoping for a number in the -3 range but here we are…..Buffalo has no business laying almost a TD in this one BUT it’s not unthinkable that they give the Eagles a rough time….They’ve started to use CJ Ogbonna a lot at QB and pretty much all he does is run…..They combine that with some meat grinder RBs and a mediocre passing QB in Cole Snyder and they should be able to move the ball….The Eagles have played the easier schedule and boast on offense that ranks #131 in the nation (264 YPG)…..Think the Bulls can pull off but not gonna lay this kind of lumber….Complicating factor is Eastern Michigan HC Chris Creighton who’s been impossibly-good as a road dog ATS during his time in Ypsilanti…..”Super Bowl” for Buffalo to end the Eagles’ season if they’re motivated…..Note that the weather looks fairly gross….rainy and medium winds.
No leanage
3. Florida St -6.5 Florida (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 28.25 Florida 21.75
This had the potential to be one of the best games of the weekend given how the Gators’ offense has improved AND the fact that the Noles are 11-0….Sadly, BOTH teams lost their starting QBs for the season last week due to injury and that makes it a very difficult game to handicap……Note that Florida got their run game rolling last week (261 yards) but also note that their defense is HOT DOO DOO.
No leanage
4. Tennessee -27 Vanderbilt (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -25
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 41.75 Vanderbilt 14.75
Tennessee should be able to name the score vs a terrible Vanderbilt squad but the Vols have just been creamed by Missouri and ROLL TIDE in the L2G (scored 17 total points) so who knows where they’re heads are at? Our DEEP SEC INSIDERS recommend you refrain from watching or wagering on this game.
No leanage
5. Purdue -3 Indiana (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Purdue -4
Vegas Implied Score – Purdue 26.75 Indiana 23.75
The odds are virtually 100% that anyone watching this game will beg for someone to FETCH THEM A BUCKET….That’s ironic because they’re playing for the Old Oaken Bucket….Both squads feature stellar 3-8 records…….Indiana lost a close one to Michigan St last week and are getting decent QB play….Purdue has lost 5L6 games but have covered the L5 in this series.
No leanage
6. Wisconsin -2 Minnesota (42)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 22 Minnesota 20
Hey look! It’s another pair of crappy Big Ten teams!….It’s hard to believe that Ohio St and Michigan are undefeated!…..The Badgers stamped their bowl season pass last week (6-5) with an OT win over CORN and now go on the road to face a Minnesota team needing a win to get to the postseason (5-6)…..Both teams are inconsistent….Minnesota has lost three in a row….The good news for them is that they’ve covered 4L5 in the series and they’ve been pretty good at home under HC PJ Fleck.
No leanage
7. Oklahoma St -17 BYU (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -15
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 37 BYU 20
The Pokes fell behind Houston 23-9 early and then turned on the jets in the 2nd half en route to a comfortable win (W 43-30)….They’ve now rattled off six wins in their last seven games and have one of the best RBs in the nation in Ollie Gordon (1,414, 15 TD, 6.7)….Their defense is gross tho (last Big 12 total defense, 432 YPG)….All they need to do is win this game by one point and they’re off to the Big 12 Championship Game for the 2nd time in three years…..They might be a little tight knowing what’s at stake and recall that BYU played well vs the Sooners last week….That game was at home mind you……This should almost certainly be a double-digit win but the tariff is pretty high at -17.
No leanage
8. Kansas -6 Cincinnati (58.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -7
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 32.25 Cincinnati 26.25
The Bearcats come to the end of a miserable season in which they’ve only managed to win three games heading into the final week of the season….They’ve played well at times but have made too many mistakes and received sketchy play at the QB position….The good news for Cincinnati is that they’re facing a Kansas team that is really playing for nothing but pride this week….They just lost to their hated rivals from Kansas St (again), have already locked up a bowl bid, and are possibly down to their 3rd string QB for the second consecutive week.
No leanage
9. Duke -6 Pittsburgh (42.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Duke -6
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 24.25 Pittsburgh 18.25
Pitt finally showed up last week and took down a sliding Boston College team to improve to 3-8 (!)….Will they be able to put two good games together and take down a Duke team that’s also struggling AND playing with a backup QB?….Prefer the home team but this game is fairly gross and the line looks about right.
No leanage
10. Syracuse -2.5 Wake Forest (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Syracuse -3
Vegas Implied Score – Syracuse 23.5 Wake Forest 21
Another hot mug full of ACC DUMPSTER JUICE as the Orange try to get their sixth win to make a bowl game….They just fired your boy Dino Babers and are a one of a small handful of teams already looking for a new HC….They have one of the most pathetic QB situations right now with basically everyone injured/hurt so they’re hard to trust….Wake Forest has been a major disappointment and won’t be going bowling…..They DO however have a fine HC and we don’t think they’ll quit.
No leanage
11. Utah -22 Colorado (52.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Utah -19.5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 37.25 Colorado 15.25
Despite having the greatest head coach of all-time in PRIME TIME the Buffs have been imploding recently losing five in a row and 7L8…..Utah is a great bully CRUSHING teams at home when they get the chance but laying more than 3 TDs is a bit rich for our tastes.
No leanage
12. Notre Dame -25.5 Stanford (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -23
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 38.5 Stanford 13
The Irish destroyed Wake Forest in the SAM HARTMAN BOWL last week (W 45-7) and they should theoretically be able to name the score vs the 3-8 Stanford Cardinal….It should be noted however that Stanford beat Colorado after falling behind 29-CACK, lost to Arizona by a single point, and lost to Washington by a mere 9 points…..Prefer the road team but it’s hard for us to know just how bad Stanford really is this season.
No leanage
13. Miami Ohio -6.5 Ball St (35.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami Ohio -8
Vegas Implied Score – Miami Ohio 21 Ball St 14.5
The Redhawks ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE……They’re the MAC East Champs and that means this game is a nothing-burger for them as they face Toledo in the big game next week….They’ve only allowed 71 points (!) in seven MAC contests so even if they give it less than 100% it’s gonna be hard for Ball St to SCORE the FOOTBALL…..The Cardinals have been playing better than their 4-7 record indicates particularly on defense….Miami is the far superior team but this is Ball St’s Super Bowl playing for the…..KAW KAW!!…..Red Bird Rivalry Trophy.
No leanage
14. Northern Illinois -19 Kent St (44)…………MEGALOCKS line – Northern Illinois -18
Vegas Implied Score – Northern Illinois 31.5 Kent St 12.5
The Huskies need to bag this FREE SQUARE in order to get a bowl bid (5-6) and Kent St has been a TRASH HEAP all season….Never easy to lay this kinda number in a MAC game but we still prefer the road team to do some damage…..Kent St couldn’t even manage 100Y of offense last week vs the Ball St defense and Northern Illinois just posted a shutout…Prefer the road team but haven’t gotten to the window yet….. May dig deeper on this one later in the week.
No leanage
15. Wyoming -11 Nevada (41.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Wyoming -10
Vegas Implied Score – Wyoming 26.25 Nevada 15.25
The Cowboys have booked seven wins which means that ONCE AGAIN the coaching staff and players have overachieved and done a great job…….They’ve lost to the top-three teams in the conference (Boise, AF, UNLV) but have handled the other conference foes on the schedule with ease….They’re just not the kind of team that you want to lay double-digits with on the road in what is a “meaningless” game as they’re already off to a bowl game…..Nevada has been better in the 2nd half of the season and could stay close if Wyoming sleepwalks thru the early stages…..Prefer the road team but would want -10 or better to consider a play.
No leanage
16. Ole Miss -11 Mississippi St (55.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -12
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 33.25 Mississippi St 22.25
This is a tough one for TREND GUY to navigate as the road team has covered 8 (!) in a row….but on the other hand….The dog has covered 8L10 and won the game outright 6L10….Thankfully, TOTALS TREND GUY comes to the rescue as the ‘under’ has cashed six straight times and the last five totals between these two squads have been 46/52/55/41/38….More importantly, Mississippi St should be able to run the ball against a suddenly SOFT OLE MISS UNDERBELLY and take time off the clock……The Mississippi St pass defense is statistically bad BUT note that nobody in the SEC has allowed fewer 10+ yard completions than the Bulldogs other than Georgia and ROLL TIDE……And only Georgia has allowed fewer 20+ yard passing plays….Hopefully they can keep Ole Miss from getting too many chunk plays in the THROW GAME….and we don’t expect much from the Miss St offense who’s scored 14/30/17/7/13/3/10 in their seven SEC tilts.
Lean – Under 55.5
17. Oklahoma -10 TCU (63.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -13
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 36.75 TCU 26.75
The line looks a bit short here but that’s due to the unknown status as of press time of Sooners’ star QB Dillon Gabriel…..Oklahoma needs a win and some serious help to get to the Big 12 title game….The Horned Frogs have to win to make it to a bowl game (5-6)…. -9.5/-10 looks like the right number if Gabriel is out…..-13 or so if he plays….Lying about QB injuries is the new HOT THING in college football so we’ll take a pass for now due to the uncertainty.
No leanage
18. Ohio -14 Akron (41)…………MEGALOCKS line – Ohio -15.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio 27.5 Akron 13.5
The line looks a little short in this BAD BOY but the Bobcats’ motivation is in question having no shot at winning the MAC East and already qualified for a bowl game….Akron has been scrappy all season losing several close games including three (!) in OT and we don’t expect them to lay over and die in this one….The Zips have covered 5L8 in the series.
No leanage
19. Utah St -8 New Mexico (62)…………MEGALOCKS line – Utah St -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah St 35 New Mexico 27
After getting smoked in back-to-back games by UNLV and Boise St (combined score 98-28) the Lobos administered a LEGIT beating of Fresno St (W 25-17) whilst rushing for 345 yards and winning the overall yardage tally 528-229…..Utah St turned the ball over four times in a home blowout loss to Boise St last week and they allowed 352 yards on the ground to the Broncos…..That could spell trouble….Note tho that Utah St is playing for bowl eligibility and they’ve covered 6 in a row vs the Lobos…..High variance game…..Utah St blowout is not impossible, nor is a SU win by the home team.
No leanage
20. Miami -9 Boston College (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 28.75 Boston College 19.75
YOUR Miami Hurricanes will appreciate the drop in class this week after facing NC St, Florida St, and LUA-VUH in consecutive games…..They should be able to handle a faltering Boston College team who’s got six wins vs suspect competition overall (Holy Cross, Virginia, Army, Georgia Tech, UConn, Syracuse) but the problem as you know is that Miami is not a very reliable bunch….They scraped by Virginia at home and lost to GT at home (yes, we know what happened at the end of the game)…..And is QB Tyler VAN DIMES really back and 100% healthy?….He sure looked good last week vs LUA-VUH……Miami hasn’t quit and we don’t think they’ll mail it in…..BC has to be jacked to have a shot to beat Miami even tho they haven’t been very good this century…..Was hoping to lay -6.5/-7 but here we are.
No leanage
21. Memphis -11.5 Temple (65.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -13
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 38.5 Temple 27
Memphis spilled their GUTS out last week and played a fine game vs the JUGGERNAUT that is SMU but fell a bit short….They should be able to win this one comfortably BUT much like Miami they aren’t very reliable….They beat Navy by 4, USF by 9, Charlotte in OT, and this is really a “nothing” game for them having just been eliminated from the AAC title and on their way to a bowl game…Temple has played better after the return of QB EJ Warner (32/23/24 L3G) and whilst they’ll probably get smoked it’s not impossible to see them deliver some SWEET BACKDOOR ACTION in the 4Q with their passing game.
No leanage
22. Liberty -17 UTEP (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -15.5
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 38 UTEP 21
The Flames sit at 11-0 (!) and are a week away from playing for the CUSA title (New Mexico St)…..They’ve been blowing out the competition recently and they lead the nation in rushing (282 YPG)……So even tho this could be a lookahead spot for the Flames you have to consider that there’s also motivation to achieve an undefeated season…. UTEP isn’t completely horrible despite their 3-8 mark and note that they lost their last two games by a combined margin of 12 points (WKU, MTSU).
No leanage
23. Troy -17 Southern Miss (48)…………MEGALOCKS line – Troy -16.5
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 32.5 Southern Miss 15.5
Troy has been CREMATING the FUN BELT opposition this season (214-87) and they’ve had the division sewn up for a while…They finally showed that they are somewhat human last week when they struggled a bit with the Cajuns (W 31-24)….This is another “meaningless” game before they play in Sun Belt Championship Game (Coastal Carolina or Appalachian St) so it’s hard to know how much intensity to expect….Midseason we’d lay the lumber of -17 or more but not this week.
No leanage
24. Rice -4.5 FAU (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Rice -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Rice 26.5 FAU 22
One of the uglier games of the week….HOOT HOOT has been a major disappointment and won’t be going bowling this season (4-7)…..They’ve still got some good pieces on offense and maybe they haven’t quit but who knows?….Rice needs to win to get to six wins but they might be going (again) with their backup QB.
No leanage
25. East Carolina -3 Tulsa (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – East Carolina -3
Vegas Implied Score – East Carolina 23.75 Tulsa 20.75
Another gruesome AAC match-up…..The ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRR Pirates play good defense (#3 AAC total defense) but are absolutely disgusting on offense (dead last AAC total offense)…..Tulsa is total garbage but they’ve managed to score 20+ in three consecutive games whilst in the midst of a six-game losing skid.
No leanage
26. SMU -18 Navy (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – SMU -16
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 32 Navy 14
The MOBSTERS didn’t let the opening number of +20 hang around very long as they ordered one of their scab-covered freaks working in the basement to place an order on Navy……+18 is still a bit rich considering how well Navy does ATS as a double-digit dog as possessions are always limited in their games…..SMU is the best team in the AAC in our estimation and just needs a one-point win to get to the AAC title game….We prefer the dog but note that the sneakiest part about SMU is their defense (when not playing explosive offenses) so that’s enough to keep us off the game for now.
No leanage
27. South Florida -5.5 Charlotte (56.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – South Florida -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – South Florida 31 Charlotte 25.5
We’ll roll the team with the potent offense (and crappy D) who’s got one of the best players in the conference in QB Byrum Brown (19 passing TD, 10 rushing) and a team that needs a win to become bowl eligible and that was THE goal heading into the season under first year HC Alex Golesh….Charlotte’s offense is DUMPSTER JUICE but they’ve got a decent defense…It just feels like a bad spot with their season being over (3-8) and coming off two home games.
Lean – South Florida -5.5
28. Missouri -7.5 WOO PIG (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 31 WOO PIG 23.5
We prefer the road team in this affair but after watching their game with Florida last week it just might be that this REALLY good team has run out of juice for the time being…..Arkansas just re-upped their HC and are just a few weeks removed from taking down Florida on the road…..They’re just not that trustworthy and Missouri should handle them with their “B” game but will they show up with that “B” game?
No leanage
29. Georgia -24 Georgia Tech (60)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -22
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 42 Georgia Tech 18
You know we love ourselves some SWEET GEORGIA ACTION but we’ll take a seat this week as the DAWGS get ready for their battle with ROLL TIDE in the SEC Championship Game….The Yellow Jackets don’t play much defense but they’re well-coached and can SCORE the FOOTBALL…..Looks like dog or pass and we’ll hit the PAUSE BUTTON.
No leanage
30. Penn St -21 Michigan St (43)…………MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 32 Michigan St 11
This has the look of another JAMES FRANKLIN SPECIAL as he loves to flex his muscles against the TURDS of the college football world and do whatever it takes to cover the spread…..The Penn St defense is still SUFFOCATING but we’ll give credit to Sparty for not throwing in the towel yet this season….Preference to the home dog given that points will be at a premium but not gonna torture ourselves by even thinking about this game on Friday.
No leanage
31. Toledo -10.5 Central Michigan (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -10
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 32.75 Central Michigan 22.25
The Rockets are already locked into the MAC Championship Game (Miami Ohio) whilst FIRE UP CHIPS need one more win to get to a bowl game…..They’ve played much better football at home (4-0; 1-6 away) and are the #3 rushing team in the MAC…..Toledo has a bit of a SOFT UNDERBELLY at times and they’ve allowed 236/186/167/168/173 to various MAC opponents….We’ll take a shot with the double-digit home dog holding the motivational edge.
Lean – FIRE UP CHIPS +10.5
32. UConn -2.5 UMass (51.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UConn -1
Vegas Implied Score – UConn 27 UMass 24.5
The Huskies have been a major disappointment this year whilst the Minutemen have played a much better brand of football than what we saw in 2022…..Looks like a coin toss and the line reflects it….Prefer UMass in this EPIC SLUGFEST but we were hoping for +3 or better and here we are.
No leanage
33. Washington -16 Washington St (68)…………MEGALOCKS line – Washington -17
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 42 Washington St 26
The COOGS would like nothing more than to ruin the Huskies’ undefeated season (and CFP chances) but we don’t think they’ve got anywhere close to the defense that can make that happen…..And Washington has the #2 pass efficiency D in the PAC 12 so that means tougher-than-usual sledding for the Washington St THROW GAME…..Washington has owned the APPLE CUP recently (won 11L13, 10-3 ATS L13)…..Washington St could pull off some SWEET BACK DOOR ACTION given how they can move the ball but the Huskies have enough firepower to run them out of the building early if the focus is there.
No leanage
34. Tulane -3.5 UTSA (52)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tulane -3
Vegas Implied Score – Tulane 27.75 UTSA 24.25
The Roadrunners have been LIVING THEIR BEST LIFE and dominating AAC competition since the return of star QB Frank Harris (15-3 TD to INT L8G, 112 yards rushing last week) whilst the Green Wave have been slithering past the opposition to a large extent…..Both HCs are excellent….The QB play should be great….We’ll roll with the hotter team and the one that’s been more impressive in conference action catching more than a FG.
Lean – UTSA +3.5
35. Illinois -6 Northwestern (47)…………MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -4
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 26.5 Northwestern 20.5
The Wildcats did the UNTHINKABLE last week and became bowl eligible when everyone had thrown their 2023 season into the DUMPSTER after the preseason hazing scandal **……They’ve been a moneymaker all season and they’re catching a few too many points but it’s not a great spot after that win……especially given that Illinois (5-6) is fighting for a bowl bid.
** “So we threw a couple of freshmen out of a jetliner? It was hilarious! Gotta teach the young punks some respect.”
No leanage
36. Maryland -1 Rutgers (44)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 22.5 Rutgers 21.5
Tough game to call……Both teams are going bowling (6-5)…..Maryland has a borderline star at QB….Rutgers has the better defense and is very scrappy…..Terps have covered 6L8 in the series.
No leanage
37. MTSU -3.5 Sam Houston (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – MTSU -3
Vegas Implied Score – MTSU 26.75 Sam Houston 23.25
The BEARKATS are playing much better down the stretch and they’ve won two of their last three contests with their only loss coming in a REALLY close shave at WKU last week….We’ll roll with the over as the Sam Houston offense is a much better unit now and their L4 game totals vs FBS foes have been 60/71/71/51…..MTSU can sling it around and we don’t expect either team to do anything other than try and SCORE the FOOTBALL….Both teams rank in the bottom third of CUSA in terms of pass efficiency defense.
Lean – Over 50
38. Oregon -13.5 Oregon St (62.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -13
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 38 Oregon St 24.5
QUACK ATTACK just needs to get past their hated rivals from Corvallis to set up a REMATCH FOR THE AGES with the Washington Huskies next week…..Oregon St has only lost three games all year (combined total of 7 points)(!) and they easily could’ve taken down Washington last week in a very competitive game…..We still have Oregon rated very highly and they’ve been devastating at home but Oregon St is a scrappy foe and we don’t see any line “value” in backing either side…..Note that Oregon St’s last road win in the series came back in 2007……This should be a fun edition of the CIVIL WAR!
No leanage
39. Virginia Tech -3 Virginia (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 27 Virginia 24
The Hokies are fighting for their bowl lives in this one (5-6) and have played much better at home than ON THE HIGHWAY….What’s also true tho is that Virginia Tech has bounced back more often than not from disappointing performances and they sure looked mediocre last week vs BC…..Virginia is 3-8 but they’ve played much better in the second half of the year and they were THIS close to taking down YOUR Miami Hurricanes as well as LUA-VUH…..Prefer the home team slightly but it’s hard to ignore that the Hokies have OWNED DAT AZZ winning 17 of the last 18 meetings with Virginia.
No leanage
40. Boise St -7 Air Force (46.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 26.75 Air Force 19.75
The winner of this game is off to the Mountain West Championship game (vs an opponent TBD) and the Falcons are really banged up heading into this one….Last week they had to play without their starting QB, top RB, and top WR, just to name a few critical doods….The most important piece is QB Z Larrier and the line is telling us that he won’t be starting this week….Boise’s run game cooked last gmae with the return of RB Ashton Jeanty and as they rushed for 352 yards vs Utah St…..Air Force is #2 in the nation in rushing offense and the Broncos are #2 in the MW in run D……Broncos have covered 5L6 in the series….Prefer the home team but not at this price.
No leanage
41. North Carolina -2.5 NC State (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -3
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 28.75 NC State 26.25
The Tar Heels season continues to go GLUG GLUG GLUG as they’ve lost three of their last four contests vs FBS competition including last week’s game at Clemson…They played pretty well in that game tho (Clemson 466-457 yard edge) and don’t forget they still have a premier QB in Drake Maye…..NC St keeps riding their excellent defense to wins and last week they went FREAKY FREAKY ALL NIGHT LONG vs Virginia Tech and scored a whopping 35 points….We prefer the home dog but were hoping for +3.5/+4….Gonna pass on the game but we’ll have almost certainly have the Pack in our ML dog list on Saturday.
No leanage
42. UCLA -9 California (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -10
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 30 California 21
Just a disgusting PAC 12 game as the UCLA QB situation is sketchy and they’re coming off a throttling of USC in their last outing (W 38-20)…..Cal’s defense is horrible (35 PPG, #10 PAC 12) but they could somehow someway get to a bowl game with a win….We’re hoping they pull off the upset to give us another shot at making fun of their communist student base and faculty in the bowl previews.
No leanage
43. Louisiana -12.5 ULM (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 33.5 ULM 21
The Cajuns should be able to handle business as they’re the better team on both sides of the football and they need to win (5-6) to bag a bowl spot…..The price isn’t cheap tho and the Warhawks will be ready for the rivalry game that is the BATTLE OF THE BAYOU…..They took down Louisiana LY as 9.5 point dogs (W 21-17).
No leanage
44. Western Kentucky -10 FIU (54)…………MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 32 FIU 22
The TOPPERS have been massive underachievers this season failing to get into the CUSA title game and they were life and death to beat Sam Houston last week…..At least that victory gave them a bowl spot…..That makes their motivation questionable for this one….FIU is DUMPSTER JUICE but they’re well coached and have a few decent pieces on offense…..Fav or pass and we’ll take a seat for now.
No leanage
45. LSU -11 Texas A&M (66.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – LSU -10
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 38.75 Texas A&M 27.75
The Jayden Daniels HEISMAN TRAIN keeps going CHOO CHOO this week as the Tigers host the Aggies…..Daniels has racked up an impossible 36-4 TD to INT mark whilst rushing for over 1,000 yards (!) in his spare time (10 TD)…..The LSU defense is worse than DUMPSTER JUICE (2nd last SEC total defense) and the Aggies still have some decent pieces on offense even with a 3rd string QB leading the way….And that DL is still playing well not to mention looking SVELTE when coming off the bus…..Line and total look about right to us.
No leanage
46. Louisville -7 Kentucky (50.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Louisville -7
Vegas Implied Score – Louisville 28.75 Kentucky 21.75
Tempted to roll with the road dog in this BAD BOY given that LUA-VUH is off to the ACC Championship Game this week and note that the Cats have covered four in a row in the series…..The problem (and it’s a medium-sized one) is that Kentucky is in poor form right now having lost five of their last six games….There’s a lot of hatred brewing between these two schools and the motivational edge is likely with Kentucky given that LUA-VUH has bigger fish to fry…..May come back to this one but haven’t gotten to the window as of yet.
No leanage
47. West Virginia -9.5 Baylor (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – West Virginia -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – West Virginia 32 Baylor 23.5
It’s very difficult to back the Bears….if not impossible….as they’ve had a brutal season and they rank in the bottom-four of the extended Big 12 in both total offense and total defense….and they almost certainly be without their starting QB Blake Shapen….West Virginia is the much better team but they’ve already assured themselves a bowl spot and are laying a bit too much lumber for our liking……Will Baylor just fold like a CHEAP TENT?…..Who knows?
No leanage
48. Colorado St -5.5 Hawaii (54.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Colorado St -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado St 30 Hawaii 24.5
The Rams need ONE MORE win to get to a bowl game and BOY OH BOY has it been a journey for the players, coaches, and fans….not to mention those invested in their season-long prospects…….They’ve been one the most inconsistent teams in the country but they definitely have the talent edge over Hawaii….The pressure will be on the Rams tho and this is a long trip….The intrepid Marc Lawrence reminds us that Colorado St is just 1-8 ATS L9 as a favorite and recall that Hawaii won two in a row before the debacle in LARADISE last week……Hope to see them bowling but we’d be surprised if they make it look easy on Saturday night.
No leanage
49. Kansas St -10 Iowa St (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 28 Iowa St 18
The Wildcats were surprisingly flat last week facing a Kansas team playing with their 3rd string QB but they managed to pull it out of the fire (W 31-27) to keep their slim Big 12 hopes alive….Prefer the road team catching double-digits but their offense is so gross…..and Kansas St has been DEVASTATING at home…..45-0/42-13/44-31/41-3/41-CACK/59-25 final scores.
No leanage
50. UCF -13.5 Houston (61.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – UCF -15
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 37.5 Houston 24
The Knights will be able to rip thru the Houston defense and don’t forget that the last time we saw the Knights in action at home they were PULVERIZING the Oklahoma St Cowboys….a likely participant in the Big 12 title game by a score of 45-3…..UCF needs this game to make a bowl game and QB JR Plumlee has been playing his best football after coming back from injury…..Houston’s season is going GLUG GLUG GLUG and they just lost two in a row at home and now have a ZOMBIE road affair to conclude the proceedings.
Lean – UCF -13.5
51. Jacksonville St -2.5 New Mexico St (50)…………MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 26.25 New Mexico St 23.75
The Aggies are off to the CUSA Championship Game next week vs mighty Liberty and are coming off of a yuuuge upset win over Auburn (!) last week…..It’s the ultimate sandwich spot for those that like to incorporate that line of thinking into their handicapping but more importantly…..they come up against a SURGING Jacksonville St team that can absolutely tear you apart with the rushing attack (246 YPG, #3 FBS) who’s also got one of the most underrated defenses in the Group of Five….The COCKS are also not eligible for a bowl game thanks to the NCAA so they’ve got one more shot to lay it all on the line.
Lean – Jacksonville St -2.5 -115 (-2.5 -110 to -2.5 -115 is widely available but -3s are starting to pop up)
52. South Alabama -6 Texas St (58)…………MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -5
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 32 Texas St 26
Two of the most unpredictable teams in the nation go head-to-head in a game that has both teams already qualified for bowl season…..Texas St is 3-4 in conference play and gave up 77 (!) to Arkansas St last week thanks in large part to FOUR Red Wolves non-offensive TDs….The Jags have been a bit off all year and have been a high-variance squad all season.
No leanage
53. Appalachian St -8.5 Georgia Southern (63.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 36 Georgia Southern 27.5
The Mountaineers were able to SHOCK the WORLD with an OT win at James Madison last week and they can punch their ticket to the Sun Belt title game with a win and a Coastal Carolina loss vs the Dukes…..They’re playing really well right now whilst the Eagles have lost three in a row….two of those mind you were close shaves….lost by 5 points at Marshall, fell by 3 points to ODU…..Both teams are going bowling……Prefer the home team but note that Georgia Southern is an impossible 5-0 ATS in this series.
No leanage
54. UNLV -2.5 San Jose St (59.5)………………MEGALOCKS line – UNLV -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – UNLV 31 San Jose St 28.5
Yes, guy…..We noted a few weeks ago that these two teams might be playing the best football in the Mountain West and here we are with both teams having a shot at making the Mountain West title game….UNLV wins and they’re in and hosting the BAD BOY…. San Jose St needs a win and some help and potentially some prayers……We see “value” with the home team as the MOBSTERS CAME IN HOT with a PURCHASE ORDER and now the line is below -3…..Is that SHARP ACTION?….Both teams are playing at their very best so we can see the logic in taking the dog (whomever it is) at +3…….You know we’re high on San Jose St but we were hoping for a number closer to +4 and here we are…..Just a game to watch and enjoy for us.
No leanage
55. Marshall -2.5 Arkansas St (53.5)……………..MEGALOCKS line – Marshall -1
Vegas Implied Score – Marshall 28 Arkansas St 25.5
Very tough game to get involved with from a wagering standpoint…..YUUUUGE motivational edge for Marshall as they need to win to get to a bowl game…..But they’ve been DUMPSTER JUICE most of the season compared to expectations and you don’t wanna back them with backup QB Cole Pennington who’s likely to start this week…..Arkansas St just became bowl eligible whilst scoring an impossible 77 points so it’s a letdown spot for them.
No leanage
56. Texas -14 Texas Tech (53)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Texas -12.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 33.5 Texas Tech 19.5
We’ve looked at this game for far too long and whilst we do want to play on the hot underdog who’s won three straight games it’s important to note that the Red Raiders won those games vs teams with horrible defenses (TCU, Kansas, UCF)…..Texas has been exposed vs the THROW GAME (#12 Big 12 pass D, #6 pass efficiency D) but have been DEVASTATING vs the run (14/95/30/88/9 rush yds allowed L5G)……Can the Red Raiders hang vs a potent Texas squad being one-dimensional on offense?…..Prefer the dog but just can’t get to the window.
No leanage
57. Clemson -7.5 South Carolina (49.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 28.5 South Carolina 21
Clemson is playing improved football down the stretch and they’ve won their last three games in a row (Irish, Ga Tech, UNC) whilst showing balance on offense and “good enough” defense…..They still lead the ACC in total defense but have given up 20+ in five consecutive games and 180+ rushing yards 3L5….The good news for Clemson is that the COCKS don’t have much of a defense to say the least (#12 SEC total defense) and they haven’t had a 200-yard passing game since late October…..South Cackalacky will be motivated to win to get to a bowl game……Clemson looking for revenge after the COCKS took them down last year 31-30……Conflicting signals but prefer the road team…..Will see if a flat -7 pops up again but haven’t gotten to the window as of yet.
No leanage
58. Arizona -10.5 Arizona St (50)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -10
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 30.25 Arizona St 19.75
The Wildcats have been one of the best stories of the 2023 season and they’ve won five games in a row (8-3)…..They need a win and some extremely unlikely help to get into the PAC 12 title game as they sit alone in 3rd place….The Sun Devils have been better than their 3-8 record indicates but they’ve dealt with tons of injuries particularly at QB and on the OL….That’s led to inconsistent play….While we were happy to back them midseason when they found their stride it’s tough to support them now as they’ve scored just 3/17/13 L3G.
No leanage
59. Fresno St -5 San Diego St (47)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -6
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 26 San Diego St 21
The Bulldogs are the MUCH better team BUT……there’s always a BUT……They’ve fallen to pieces the last two weeks and it’s hard to overlook their loss to the Lobos last week in which they were outgained 528-229 (!) as 23.5-point favs….They still have a massive talent edge but who knows if they show up having already sewn up a bowl bid….and the QB situation is murky…..Interesting angle to this game is that it’s the BRADY HOKE RETIREMENT GAME as the San Diego St HC calls it quits….We expect max effort from the Aztecs to send off the HC in winning fashion.
No leanage
60. North Texas -3 UAB (74)…………….MEGALOCKS line – North Texas -5
Vegas Implied Score – North Texas 38.5 UAB 35.5
A day without betting on the MEAN GREEN is like a day without SUNSHINE….Both teams have been fun to watch on offense but North Texas has been devastating on the ground (187 YPG, #2 AAC) whilst getting great QB play from Chandler Rogers and UAB is allowing over 5 YPC and almost 200 YPG to opposing ground games….North Texas has played very well vs the CREAM of the conference and the Blazers are 0-5 SU on the road……Neither team plays defense so buckle up, yo.
Lean – North Texas -3
61. Old Dominion -2.5 Georgia St (53.5)…………….MEGALOCKS line – Old Dominion -3
Vegas Implied Score – Old Dominion 28 Georgia 25.5
Gotta roll with the team BIG TIME MOTIVATED to get to just their 3rd down game in school history (5-6)….HC Ricky Rahne has done a good job getting the most out of the Monarchs roster and they could easily have a few more wins….They lost to Wake Forest by 3, Marshall by 6, James Madison (!) by 3, and Coastal Carolina by 4…..The Panthers have been a disgusting mess since clinching a bowl spot and have lost their last three games 42-14/42-14/56-14….All of those recent opponents are better than Old Dominion but it’s hard to see them adjusting course in one week in a meaningless game vs a stingy motivated home team.
Lean – Old Dominion -2.5
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re continuing to play these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.