Hey everyone.
Here’s the Week 14 Boxscore and Wagering review
Army/Navy full write-up on WEDNESDAY.
Bowl game handicapping is underway. Content and picks coming soon!
Boxscore review:
AAC
SMU 26 Tulane 14 – Mustangs GIT ER DONE with a backup QB in impressive fashion……396-269 yard edge for SMU and note they were (-2) in t/o margin…..SMU won rushing battle 193-31…..QB Kevin Jennings 19/33 203 TD, 2 INT, defense had an impossible 7 SACKS.
Next up…..
SMU vs Boston College in the FENWAY BOWL
Tulane vs Virginia Tech in the MILITARY BOWL
ACC
Florida St 16 Louisville 6 – WHOA, NELLIE!….Call us crazy but we enjoyed this SNOT BUBBLER…..Dominating performance by the Seminoles’ defense and they win it all the ACC marbles with a 3RD STRING QB…..219-188 yard edge for Florida St and their defense had 7 SACKS.
Next up…….
Florida St vs Georgia in the ORANGE BOWL
Louisville vs USC in the HOLIDAY BOWL
Big 12
Texas 49 Oklahoma St 21 – Total destruction!…..662-281 yard edge for Longhorns…..35 points in the first half and they scored TDs on five of their first six possessions…..QB Quinn Ewers 452 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
Next up………
Texas vs Washington in the SUGAR BOWL
Oklahoma St vs Texas A&M in the TEXAS BOWL
Big Ten
Michigan 26 Iowa 0 – Just an absolutely disgusting mess and those Wolverines look sharp taking down another great team!…..213-155 yard edge for Wolverines but note that they only had 66 net rushing yards as they B Corum had a mere 52 yards on the ground and were sacked by Iowa four times.
Next up………..
Michigan vs ROLL TIDE in the ROSE BOWL
Iowa vs Tennessee in the CITRUS BOWL
Conference USA
Liberty 49 New Mexico St 35 – Yes, guy…..Flames move to 13-0 and get the coveted major Group of Five bowl bid!……Very entertaining game….Tied at 35 heading into the final frame…..Flames win the 4Q 14-CACK……Liberty had an impossible 712 (!) total yards (393 rush. 319 pass).
Next up………..
Liberty vs Oregon in the FIESTA BOWL
New Mexico St vs Fresno St in the NEW MEXICO BOWL
MAC
Miami Ohio 23 Toledo 14 – Another team gets it done with a backup QB…..Miami was outgained 370-306 but they were (+2) in t/o margin and absolutely dominated on special teams……Redhawks win the rushing battle 197-97..
Next up………
Miami Ohio vs Appalachian St in the CURE BOWL
Toledo vs Wyoming in the ARIZONA BOWL
Mountain West
Boise St 44 UNLV 20 – The Broncos take the Mountain West crown with a dominating effort…..527-298 yard edge including 301 yards on the ground……The Rebels’ GO GO offense didn’t GO and the defense was BAD BAD…..Boise St RB Ashton Jeanty 21-153, TD.
Next up………
Boise St vs UCLA in the JIMMY KIMMEL HOLLYWOOD PEDOPHILE LA BOWL
UNLV vs Kansas in the GUARANTEED RATE BOWL
PAC 12
Washington 34 Oregon 31 – They did it AGAIN….Gutsy performance from the Huskies…..Jumped out to a 10-0 lead…..Fell behind 24-20 and the Ducks had all the momentum…….Washington finds a way to win…..481-363 yard edge for Washington….They won the rushing (!) battle 157-124 and Oregon’s offense sputtered compared to what we are used to seeing from them.
Next up………
Washington vs Texas in the SUGAR BOWL
Oregon vs Liberty in the FIESTA BOWL
SEC
ROLL TIDE 27 Georgia 24 – the Tide keep on ROLLING…..Georgia scored first on an impressive TD drive but that was pretty much it until it was too late…….321-306 yard edge for Georgia…..They were (-1) in t/o margin and that was a fumble deep in their own end that Alabama converted to three points…..Alabama wins rushing battle 114-78.
Next up……
ROLL TIDE vs Michigan in the ROSE BOWL
Georgia vs Florida St in the ORANGE BOWL
Sun Belt
Troy 49 Appalachian St 23 – BACK-to-BACK JACKS for the mighty Troy Trojans!…….They led 21-17 at the end of the 3Q and then they went FREAKY FREAKY ALL NIGHT LONG scoring 28 points in the 4th Q……463-383 yard edge for Troy including 271 rushing yards….Troy RB Kimani Vidal 26-233, 5 TD!
Next up…….
Troy vs Duke in the BIRMINGHAM BOWL
Appalachian St vs Miami Ohio in the CURE BOWL
Betting review
“Official” plays
ROLL TIDE over 55 (L)
Small plays/Leans
Oregon under 65.5 (W)
Miami Ohio under 44 (W)
Texas team total over 34.5 (W)
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this season. 11-22-2 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 84-59 (59%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.), but as mentioned around midseason, we recommend that it’s best to risk the same amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks. That’s what we’ve been doing so we suggest the same for everyone else.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
Futures and Props Club
Good day for FUTURES AND PROPS CLUB members! The full accounting (net profit/loss including hedging activities) will be posted on the blog page entry in the next day or two.
MAC Champion – Winner! Miami Ohio +803
ACC Champion – Winner! Florida St +175
Boise St Champion – Winner! Boise St +200
SMU Champion – Winner! SMU +320
Heisman Trophy Winner – Will it be Daniels at +1129, Penix at +600, or Nix at +2000 ? We’ll know on Saturday.
Texas is still ticking at +2500.
GL and enjoy bowl season!!